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Narcotized

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The economy is headed for a BIG downturn. Way worse than 2008.

Without question. Obama had a chance to be a hero and make the tough decisions that GWB didn't, and all he did was kick the can down the road by burying our immediate problems under more mountains of debt. Whoever the guys were on here that thinks the Bernankes and Buffetts are experts and as an anesthesiologist i should listen to them is seriously deluding themselves.

This should be a top news story on every channel every night. Yet most of you probably don't even know this:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...d=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

A mind numbing 70% of treasuries are being bought with printed money. There simply is no demand to buy our junk debt anymore. If you haven't figured out by now that Larry Summers and company won't save you; I'll break it down.

Inflated money has to lead to inflated prices. Otherwise just printing paper would make us richer. The world won't buy our debt and be paid with funny money later. To entice them the FED must stop inflating the money supply which means interest rates must rise to attract others to buy that 70% of new debt. One problem: we can't afford 10-15% interest on 15 trillion dollars. That's 1.5 to 2.25 trillion a year ON INTEREST ALONE. It's a mathematical box and it's closing in on us much sooner than you think.

The day of reckoning starts when the selling begins. Dotcoms looked amazing in 98 and real estate looked amazing in 05. And just like those, when the world turns on our debt and become net sellers, the party is friggin over. We are printing money out of worthless paper to cover 70% of new debt, and nobody cares or is reporting on it.
 
Without question. Obama had a chance to be a hero and make the tough decisions that GWB didn't, and all he did was kick the can down the road by burying our immediate problems under more mountains of debt. Whoever the guys were on here that thinks the Bernankes and Buffetts are experts and as an anesthesiologist i should listen to them is seriously deluding themselves.

This should be a top news story on every channel every night. Yet most of you probably don't even know this:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...d=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

A mind numbing 70% of treasuries are being bought with printed money. There simply is no demand to buy our junk debt anymore. If you haven't figured out by now that Larry Summers and company won't save you; I'll break it down.

Inflated money has to lead to inflated prices. Otherwise just printing paper would make us richer. The world won't buy our debt and be paid with funny money later. To entice them the FED must stop inflating the money supply which means interest rates must rise to attract others to buy that 70% of new debt. One problem: we can't afford 10-15% interest on 15 trillion dollars. That's 1.5 to 2.25 trillion a year ON INTEREST ALONE. It's a mathematical box and it's closing in on us much sooner than you think.

The day of reckoning starts when the selling begins. Dotcoms looked amazing in 98 and real estate looked amazing in 05. And just like those, when the world turns on our debt and become net sellers, the party is friggin over. We are printing money out of worthless paper to cover 70% of new debt, and nobody cares or is reporting on it.

So what have you done to prepare?
 
This may be an interesting year.

But they're such experienced can-kickers it wouldn't surprise me if it's not an interesting year. Why's the DOW 12000 when the only fundamental change to the economy in the last two years seems to be more debt and maybe a bounce off a soft bottom?

All any of us can do is just be reasonably prepared for it on a personal level, and go on with living our lives.
 
So what have you done to prepare?

I stayed liquid, oh wait, no I didn't and made a tidy profit in 2010.😀 Where is 2win anyway. I heard he's shorting apple before they release the iPad 2 and iPhone 5.😉
The only reason we're doing well is because China would rather buy our debt than the floundering Euro. If Germany said "F all y'all!" and killed the euro, I think we would be in much bigger trouble. Of course I'm only an anesthesiologist...
This year may be the year to diversify more. I'll wait till around 10,000 or $5/gal.
 
There is actually an event which would lead me to seriously consider going liquid, to wait and see where things settled out. Can you guess? I think it might really scare the market, or everyone will just yawn and "hope" it fixes itself.
 
There is actually an event which would lead me to seriously consider going liquid, to wait and see where things settled out. Can you guess? I think it might really scare the market, or everyone will just yawn and "hope" it fixes itself.

A revolution in Saudi Arabia?

When that happens it would be already too late though.
 
A revolution in Saudi Arabia?

Don't hold your breath for a revolution in Saudi Arabia. They're quite a bit different than the other countries in the region. Yeah, it's ruled by a bunch of oppressive wankers, but the House of Saud is handing out $billions upon $billions of welfare/entitlement checks to its citizens and, unlike the United States, they can keep that kind of bread & circus going forever.

SA has its poor and unemployed, but Tunsia/Libya/Egypt it is not.

I guess anything could happen though.
 
I stayed liquid, oh wait, no I didn't and made a tidy profit in 2010.😀 Where is 2win anyway. I heard he's shorting apple before they release the iPad 2 and iPhone 5.😉

Wonder when he cut his losses on CHKP, and how bad the damage was.


I missed the stock market runup to 12000, honestly thought it was a coin toss whether it'd go up or down a few thousand, and currently have just a fraction of my assets in stocks. For a while I was buying some PMs, mostly silver, but I quit when it passed the mid 20s. I also bought/invested in some things that I think will pay off well financially and in security over the next 20-30 years. Right now I don't know what to invest in, so I'll probably just wait until the next market crash, as much as it galls me to try timing anything.

You can go crazy obsessing over this stuff.
 
So what have you done to prepare?

To be honest, the answer changes nothing. Let's say I bought a hundred shotguns, a year of food and water, liquidated into gold, stored oil and energy, a few dozen pitbulls, and moved to a farm outside the city. Or let's say I've done none of the above. It changes nothing.

In reality I done bits and pieces of the above and a little bit more as time goes on (after reading this all-out devaluation of our currency by the FED, I am officially joining the list of whackos out there that hoard food and am buying a few months supply this weekend). In my heart I know the sensible thing to do is abandon the city, so that hangs over me as a bit of a depressing event.

I try to educate friends, family, colleagues, etc that have no idea of these things because my lone vote is worthless and they have no idea what's down the road. I don't give out investment advice because momentum and technicals move markets more than fundamentals, and losing someone elses money isn't worth whatever you gain by telling someone what to do with their money, though I am very frustrated with family members in complete denial.

The DOW going up while we are in a total debt propped-up freefall does not surprise me. Dotcoms kept going up when there was no possible fundamental reason for it (...till they died hard), and at the rate we are devaluing currency, is inflation of anything including the DOW really a surprise? The mindset will need to change eventually that things like food and gold aren't actually going up in value. The dollar is simply crashing in value. Big difference.
 
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So what have you done to prepare?

He's mentioned his "6F" plan a few times here, but I don't think he's stated what kind of progress he's made on it.


You get your rottweiler puppies yet, Narcotized? Need pics. I've only got one ...

doofus.jpg
 
But they're such experienced can-kickers it wouldn't surprise me if it's not an interesting year.

Me thinks you might be giving the can kickers a bit too much credit. Interest rates are zero, we seem to have exhausted the world's ability or want to loan us money at low rates, and the printing presses are running in overdrive. I don't see many bullets left in the can kicker's gun.

I wish they had left the can in the road to be run over in the road in 2008. The further down the road the can gets kicked, the more painful it will be when it finally gets run over. Nothing is free.
 
I am officially joining the list of whackos out there that hoard food and am buying a few months supply this weekend

You're not one of us^H^Hthem until you've got buckets and mylar ...

I do have to say though, that even if the S never HTF, pizza crust made from freshly ground wheat berries is pretty good.

In my heart I know the sensible thing to do is abandone the city, so that hangs over me as a bit of a depressing event.

It's easier for those of us who hate living in cities, but we couldn't all live in rural America even if we wanted to.

My wife grew up on a ranch, and as much as I love being out in the middle of nowhere, the thought of becoming some kind of subsistence farmer horrifies me. I want the grocery stores stocked.

Anyway, fleeing a city you love to live in for fear of a social order collapse that might happen in 1, 2, 10, 20 years, or never is a hell of a way to live your life. Having a place to go to ride out short term chaos before returning is a more reasonable option.



Narcotized said:
Me thinks you might be giving the can kickers a bit too much credit. Interest rates are zero, we seem to have exhausted the world's ability or want to loan us money at low rates, and the printing presses are running in overdrive. I don't see many bullets left in the can kicker's gun.

You may be right. I thought they were out of ammo and the end was upon us in Oct 2008 though.

Narcotized said:
Progress Update:

[Glock 23]

Excellent ...

My brother just sent off a pair of Form 4's for suppressors to the ATF last week on behalf of our trust. We have another can in Form 3 dealer-to-dealer purgatory. Unfortunately they'll all have to reside in his free state until my state comes to its senses (ha!) or we leave.

FA762K.png

osprey.jpg

sparrow.jpg


Looking at a SBR too, but I can't really decide if I want to go 6.8 or just stay in the 5.56 family.
 
@ narcotized--nice G23. 180 grain gold dots and 22-round magazines with the (+) base plate will go nice with that.
 
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This will be the year---the year when we finally get to make use of our Cold War bomb shelters. The year when our ammunition stockpiles come in handy. The year to dust off our SPAM stockpiles, dig deep down into the earth, and await the coming doom.

They called us fools for years. Now it is our time.
 
Man... you guys are scary with that apocalyptic talk. No doubt narco hit the nail on the head... 15 trillion at 10-15% (I hope it’s not that high) does sound like an MC Escher’s infinite staircase...
escher_stairs.jpg


If and when it happens, how is it going to go down? You really think you are going to need your firearms, pitbulls and nuke shelters? You guys really stocking up on food and water just in case? Man... that is pretty hard core, or maybe I’m just blind. I just don’t see the US of A going down like that, but what do I know. Something does have to give...the damn can hold back only so much water: the cracks and structural integrity are indeed looking at us square in the face.

So I was driving through Vancouver today. The pacific northwest is shared by US and Canada. It dawned on me that those guys only have a 600 billion dollar debt in comparison to our 14 trillion dollar debt. I know, apples and oranges... But didn’t we pay out 414 billion in interest alone last year? That is nearly Canada’s entire national debt. Scary in deed when you take a step back.

I might have f’ed up with my animals. Some of them are not very good intruder deterrents in the post apocalyptic scenario:

picture.php


Some of them might hold their own however... 😀
picture.php
 
Old data... but for those of us who are visual learners:

National-Debt-By-Country.gif
 
This will be the year---the year when we finally get to make use of our Cold War bomb shelters. The year when our ammunition stockpiles come in handy. The year to dust off our SPAM stockpiles, dig deep down into the earth, and await the coming doom.

They called us fools for years. Now it is our time.

Uh oh, I have no bomb shelter or iodine tablets. Guess I'm screwed! 🙂


I wonder if one of our emeritus moderators might pop in to tell us more about living through Katrina though. How thin the veneer of civilization is and how any part of the United States is about 6 missed meals away from anarchy. How even a small, regional, well forecast natural disaster can expose the holes in the system.

I wonder if any silent lurkers here is from Argentina, and has first hand experience of what happens when a first world nation lets its monetary policy get out of hand.


I own a couple guns for self defense. Opinions vary but mine is that a suppressed SBR is the perfect gun for home defense. The rest are just for fun - no silly illusions of using my suppressed $5000 sniper rifle to defend a homestead against the Humungus and a bunch of WWF extras on dirt bikes. It's just fun.

I never had to hoard or reload ammunition though until Obama was elected and a bunch of nuts freaked and bought everything up for fear that the 2nd Amendment might get repealed ... now I do it so I won't have to quit shooting when they cause the next panic buy & shortage. (Do you have any idea how hard it was to find even a single box of .380 a couple years ago? How a box of cheap imported steel cased smells-like-burning-cats Russian .223 flew off shelves at a doubled price?)


The problem with survivalists is that the (often racist) tinfoil asshat lunatic fringe lend their stench to anyone with a leaning toward short-term self-sufficiency ... because they act as if they WANT the world to end. I like my burritos, electricity, and non-subsistence-farming lifestyle.

Anyone can take a distant look at American consumption and spending habits - both government and individual - and see that it can't go on forever. When is debatable; I don't think it'll be this year or next. I don't even think it'll be a sudden event, but rather a gradual decline in the overall American standard of living. Lower real wages, more unemployment, fewer opportunities, more crime, reduced public services ... but still civilized life. But there's enough badness on the tails of the whats-gonna-happen probability curve that it seems prudent to have a plan, and some means of self-defense and short-term self-sufficiency in hand.

If for no other reason than earthquakes and hurricanes exist. If you'd rather count on FEMA, that's up to you. Perhaps I'll see you on TV at the Superdome.
 
If and when it happens, how is it going to go down?

My money's on something akin to what happened in Argentina. I don't think it will be abrupt, and I don't think it will be soon.

Life will go on, mostly normally, but we will all be poorer for it.

You really think you are going to need your firearms, pitbulls and nuke shelters? You guys really stocking up on food and water just in case?

I don't think I'll ever need the .45 I carry every day or the long term storage food we have.

I also don't think I'll ever need my auto insurance policy.

If I ever need that rottweiler to protect me, I'm screwed, because he's totally docile. He won't even bark at strangers. Our cat is actually more threatening.
 
Someone on sdn used to have a Benjamin Franklin quote as their signature. It applies to this thread:

"By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail."
 
I wonder if one of our emeritus moderators might pop in to tell us more about living through Katrina though. How thin the veneer of civilization is and how any part of the United States is about 6 missed meals away from anarchy.... But there's enough badness on the tails of the whats-gonna-happen probability curve that it seems prudent to have a plan, and some means of self-defense and short-term self-sufficiency in hand.

Agree completely. Look how fast LA went into anarchy over a controversial verdict. I would say a monetary collapse could easily trigger similar unrest.

I'm not into pit bulls, nuke shelters, or apocalyptic scenarios. I'm more concerned with self-defense to violent crime and preparedness for any potential food disruptions. In a very bad case scenario I don't think relief would take months to arrive, but I don't like to wait in lines either.

I do disagree in that I don't think it will be a smooth gradual downtrending. I think when bubbles burst (dotcoms, real estate, 70's silver), they hit pretty hard and furious, and I see the debt bubble collapse as being no different. When people and nations see our bonds dropping in value, there will be a stampede to get out of them and no demand to purchase new debt.

Sevo, when that baby stripped tiger you have grows to a full grown few hundred pounds you'll be set!!
 
If my city deteriorates into anarchy, I'm hiring some Los Angeles Korean shopowners to defend my property. Apparently they shoot as accurate as Barney Fife because they fired off dozens and dozens of rounds but I never heard of anyone actually hit. Gotta LOVE these guys. Awesome footage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L5ttIHV12s
 
:laugh::laugh:

Is that out of mad max or book of eli?

Laugh if you like, but when the system's failed and the machines have failed, what's it gonna be? Survival. Who has the ability to survive? Is it you?
 
Say hello to my little friend.
2005813223334328.jpg


The dogs only useful until the first punk with a 22 comes along.

I'm screwed. My idea of roughing it is staying at the Ritz Carlton because the Four Seasons is all booked up. I live too far from the family mountain house and the boat. By the time I got there, if at all, it would be gone.

Though, I expect continued slow decline and than austerity. Maybe Maobama's friends in China will prop us up with trillions in bailouts, as we're "too big to fail". Change or die.

Russia's looking pretty good.:laugh: and Oz.
 
Don't take it personally residual... you just made me chuckle a bit.

Yeah... out where I live, social unrest will take considerably longer than the cities.... I have easy access to land/ranches/cattle/pigs and guns (although at this point I don't own any...) I'm going to start training my cat so that when you enter my compound this is what you will encounter:

deformed-white-tiger1.jpg



liger: average 900lbs >10 ft tall. biggest one recorded 1750lbs. Now that is one big cat.
 
I didn't marry my wife with preparation for the apocalypse in mind, but I'm not upset that her family ranch has enough land and cattle for us to survive on indefinately.
I don't have a glock either but my 30-06 and 12 gauge should do just fine for protection if they were ever needed. I don't actually think they will be.
Now if I could just afford to start hoarding gold...
 
Don't hold your breath for a revolution in Saudi Arabia. They're quite a bit different than the other countries in the region. Yeah, it's ruled by a bunch of oppressive wankers, but the House of Saud is handing out $billions upon $billions of welfare/entitlement checks to its citizens and, unlike the United States, they can keep that kind of bread & circus going forever.

SA has its poor and unemployed, but Tunsia/Libya/Egypt it is not.

I guess anything could happen though.

The regime running the U.S. doesn't have an interest in Saudi Arabia melting down, so I doubt this will happen.
 
Uh oh, I have no bomb shelter or iodine tablets. Guess I'm screwed! 🙂


I wonder if one of our emeritus moderators might pop in to tell us more about living through Katrina though. How thin the veneer of civilization is and how any part of the United States is about 6 missed meals away from anarchy. How even a small, regional, well forecast natural disaster can expose the holes in the system.

I wonder if any silent lurkers here is from Argentina, and has first hand experience of what happens when a first world nation lets its monetary policy get out of hand.


I own a couple guns for self defense. Opinions vary but mine is that a suppressed SBR is the perfect gun for home defense. The rest are just for fun - no silly illusions of using my suppressed $5000 sniper rifle to defend a homestead against the Humungus and a bunch of WWF extras on dirt bikes. It's just fun.

I never had to hoard or reload ammunition though until Obama was elected and a bunch of nuts freaked and bought everything up for fear that the 2nd Amendment might get repealed ... now I do it so I won't have to quit shooting when they cause the next panic buy & shortage. (Do you have any idea how hard it was to find even a single box of .380 a couple years ago? How a box of cheap imported steel cased smells-like-burning-cats Russian .223 flew off shelves at a doubled price?)


The problem with survivalists is that the (often racist) tinfoil asshat lunatic fringe lend their stench to anyone with a leaning toward short-term self-sufficiency ... because they act as if they WANT the world to end. I like my burritos, electricity, and non-subsistence-farming lifestyle.

Anyone can take a distant look at American consumption and spending habits - both government and individual - and see that it can't go on forever. When is debatable; I don't think it'll be this year or next. I don't even think it'll be a sudden event, but rather a gradual decline in the overall American standard of living. Lower real wages, more unemployment, fewer opportunities, more crime, reduced public services ... but still civilized life. But there's enough badness on the tails of the whats-gonna-happen probability curve that it seems prudent to have a plan, and some means of self-defense and short-term self-sufficiency in hand.

If for no other reason than earthquakes and hurricanes exist. If you'd rather count on FEMA, that's up to you. Perhaps I'll see you on TV at the Superdome.

How true that is.
 
Dotcoms looked amazing in 98 and real estate looked amazing in 05.

Real estate only looked amazing to the people who were buying words rather than analyzing trends. I actually had a dinner and conference with the chief financial analyst for a major bank back then (I don't know if he still is) and he was talking about this back then. The general sentiment was that Americans take too many chances and believe they can't lose while Europeans bank their money but don't take enough chances. Consider he is German, I suspect he meant Germans didn't take enough chances.

Anyway, he definitely talked about a bubble that would pop due to these exact circumstances. I don't think he ever overtly mentioned CDSs screwing things up, so I don't know how that applied to the overall speed of the whole s-show at hand.

If you look at actual crime and murder rates during something like the great depression, which was pretty bad. There wasn't actually a significant change in crime. In fact, there was a decline in murder during the great depression. During our most prosperous times, there was a bit of a spike. In the event of a complete economic meltdown, it is just as likely (if not more likely) we show the american ideal to band together and make things right as opposed to turning into a mad max thunderdome stuff with crazed masses murdering, raping and pillaging all around them.

Do I still own guns? Yes. Do I still look upon things with skepticism? Of course. It is good to have some assets in gold but in the event of a true apocalypse, that gold wouldn't really be worth much. If the world were to meltdown tomorrow, I'd much rather have a dependable rifle (or even a bow), some good boots, a knife, axe, some magnesium firestarters, and a good revolver or glock side arm rather than my savings in gold......and maybe a good woman with the same.
 
If you look at actual crime and murder rates during something like the great depression, which was pretty bad. There wasn't actually a significant change in crime. In fact, there was a decline in murder during the great depression. During our most prosperous times, there was a bit of a spike. In the event of a complete economic meltdown, it is just as likely (if not more likely) we show the american ideal to band together and make things right as opposed to turning into a mad max thunderdome stuff with crazed masses murdering, raping and pillaging all around them.

Different times. We were a fairly civilized bunch back then, not the angry disconnected armed mob we've become. You were entitled only to what you earned and thankful for what was given to you. I don't see today's entitled angry poor waiting patiently in soup lines while you drive by in a lexus. I wasn't around then, but I don't think car jackings, home invasions, and wild west gang drug wars were all too common. As economic conditions in Mexico deteriorate are they banding together, or shooting up the place? You could test out that theory of lower crime in economic meltdowns by hanging out in the worst economically devastated areas of Southeast DC, Detroit, and New Orleans, and let us know how that works out. 🙂
 
Real estate only looked amazing to the people who were buying words rather than analyzing trends. I actually had a dinner and conference with the chief financial analyst for a major bank back then (I don't know if he still is) and he was talking about this back then. The general sentiment was that Americans take too many chances and believe they can't lose while Europeans bank their money but don't take enough chances. Consider he is German, I suspect he meant Germans didn't take enough chances.

Anyway, he definitely talked about a bubble that would pop due to these exact circumstances. I don't think he ever overtly mentioned CDSs screwing things up, so I don't know how that applied to the overall speed of the whole s-show at hand.

california-income-vs-home-price.png



Amazing. Adding wages to the housing prices graph says it all. The mortgage alone would take 100% of income for 25 years! no taxes, no food, no transportation, no nothing, 100% for most of your working life.
I'd hate to see the same result applied to our debt driven country as a whole. It's not too far fetched to say that our government is borrowing just as far beyond it's means as those people were.
You'd have to be blind not to see that it isn't sustainable, but we just keep heading up the ramp-shaped cliff.
 
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CF, I'm very interested in your thoughts on the original post before this turned into a survivalists thread. Are you as concerned as I am about 70% of new debt being bought by printed money? Isn't that basically the end of the line and the last resort to float a bankrupt government? Have we hit the point where we can't even turn the printers off because we can't afford the interest on the debt that higher interest rates would bring? Will foreigners stop buying even the 30% of new debt they buy when they figure out all they will be paid back in is devalued currency? Lastly, am I asking nothing more than a series of rhetorical questions?

Hey Narc. I'm as concerned as you regarding these issues.

How this all plays out is really hard to tell. The U.S. is still the preeminent military power in the world, by far. So, this could be a major factor.

Like Gerald Celente likes to say "when all else fails, they'll take us to war". And, it'll be properly orchestrated with most of mainstream media being complicit, just as mainstream business media has been complicit in our financial fiasco(s) for many years.

Also, if the U.S. closed off it's markets to China (our "benefactor"), the Chinese would likely experience extreme civil unrest from the ramifications. So, as Naill Ferguson calls it, "Chimerica" (our apparent "symbiotic" though really one sided relationship) can exist for quite a long time.

Another possibility is that we do go bankrupt, though it's unlikely that our "leaders" would call it that. Rather there could be a "global restructuring of debt" in which a new currency is literally created out of thin air. Perhaps it becomes a basket of currencies, as has already been discussed. The problem here should be obvious in that any further CENTRALIZATION of power would have an almost limitless potential for abuse, as we've seen in the case of, say, the Federal Reserve. Very little real accountability.

I'm just not sure. Who can be? I do not think we have a sustainable situation in the U.S., that's for sure. Things will get worse for the vast majority of people, which clearly is not ideal. So, while we're likely to see legions of losers as we undergo such change, who might the winners be?? Could potential winners have a hand in what is essentially the downfall of a once great country? Again, who knows, but to suggest it's not possible is naive to the extreme IMO.

After all, what is "austerity"?? The American people didn't (oh wait, we kind of DID) vote to offshore millions of high paying, societal wealth-producing, manufacturing jobs. The American people didn't (oh wait, we did yet again) buy into the "service sector" theory promoted by so many insiders on Wall Street and executives of multinational corporations, not to mention those in academia (i.e. those who teach our nations MBA's).

Another factor in all of this is that for quite a long time there hasn't really been a "we". In the "old days" it was common for European aristocracy to send their sons off to the officer corps. So, the elite had some skin in the game, so to speak (literally and figuratively). Today? Not so much. This went all the way back to the 1200's and probably even before that time. Now, we have a professional military which is very much underrepresented by the "elite" of our society. This has ramifications. It's too easy to "go bomb Iran" when it's not the Senator's son doing the dirty work. No, he's at Harvard. It's really easy to "go to war" when it's the other guys kid.

More to this point, there was an article in The Atlantic not too long ago (I'll post it later) which talked about the new global elite having more in common with one another than they often do their "neighbors", or countrymen. So, make no mistake. There isn't a "we" from the perspective of the truly elite of most societies these days. Perhaps this is why we see so little "corporate reponsibility" to society as we do in modern times. This article that I mention goes on to say how these folks are more likely to meet up, amongst themselves, in Hong Kong, or Singapore for the weekend than they are to spend time in their own communities in their native countries. Again, this has ramifications.

***If I could give anyone a bit of advice, it would be to please wake up to the fact that much of our information is tainted at best. It's extremely difficult to obtain good information. It takes a lot of work. Sometimes I think that ignorance really is bliss. But, we really need to think for ourselves. If something seems simply "inconsistent", then cross check your information with other sources. Go global (English language versions of foreign publicatons for example). Even survey "alternative" news media which you KNOW is biased, though perhaps in the other direction. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Oh, and when in doubt, follow the money....
 
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Couldn't agree more with cfdavid.

Gotta add that a new basket of currencies won't end well for the US, as we are so dependent on the USD being the reserve currency. I suspect the Fed will just continue QE until the USD collapses, which, given the monumental debt and skyrocketing commodity prices, seems more imminent than I suspected.
Niall Ferguson is a badass, but I think he's still a bit too optimistic.
 
Have we hit the point where we can't even turn the printers off because we can't afford the interest on the debt that higher interest rates would bring?

I think there's a way out, with some excruciating pain along the way.

1) eliminate the ongoing deficit
2) devalue currency until the value of the national debt is a smaller % of actual GDP
3) probably raise taxes

As for (1), the US still has a huge, productive economy in absolute terms, despite its issues. Tax receipts are still pretty high if you take a step back and look at the numbers. Even though we've outsourced a lot, we still produce a huge amount. We're a net food exporter by a huge margin. We're free, we innovate, we're capitalists, our military can kill people and break things with great efficiency. We're not helpless in the face of accounting mathematics, except by choice.

The world would not stop spinning and fling us into space, and mainland US would not be invaded if we abruptly (over a few years) drastically cut spending. If we cut large chunks out of the military budget, Medicare, and Social Security the budget could be balanced. It would hurt a lot of Americans. It would hurt old people. It would hurt sick people. It would hurt me doubly as a military doctor to see the military and Medicare budgets get whacked. But the nation would be solvent and the currency devaluation could slow and eventually end.

Which is worse? A generation of old people who have to live with their kids in their old age because Social Security cuts their payments by 1/2? Or an insolvent bankrupt nation that puts old people in poverty because their inflation-adjusted Social Security e-checks aren't worth the electrons they're e-transmitted with any more? People on low, fixed incomes without the capacity to work are screwed no matter what we do - I think a lot of retirees' best hope is going to be family support, especially if they don't own their homes free & clear.

Energy is where the world really has us over a barrel right now. But there is no reason we couldn't get a few dozen nuclear plants built and running in just a few years, if we had the will to do so. There's no reason we couldn't convert much of our transportation industry to natural gas and electric in the next decade. There's room to expand other renewables.


And (2) ... I starting to think the Fed money printers are NOT absolute and complete *****s. It seems much of the goal of QE is in fact to deliberately devalue our currency to devalue the debt. As you say, $14 trillion in today's dollars with normal interest rates will crush us. No question, it's just math. In order to ever have any hope of paying off the national debt, it's actual value has to be reduced to a more manageable % of actual GDP.


As for (3) ... overt tax increases are politically untenable at this point. Nobody, from the poor-entitled sterotype on the left to the rich-angry stereotype on the right, will tolerate them. But inflation is a tax (and a regressive one at that!) so I refer you to point (2) above. QE may actually be a rational part of the solution there too.

Of course, it means nothing if we keep up the deficit spending and foreign energy trade deficit.
 
I think there's a way out, with some excruciating pain along the way.

1) eliminate the ongoing deficit
2) devalue currency until the value of the national debt is a smaller % of actual GDP
3) probably raise taxes

That's all it would take. Simple common sense that 15 trillion dollars was blown, and it's not coming back through idiotic "stimulus" and tax cut gimmicks. But that would involve pain and sacrifice, and collectively America has become an entitlement wasteland.

Obama and the bipartisan Congress will get right on #1 for sure; eliminating the ongoing deficit. Oh wait, nevermind; they are presently continuing to spend at record deficit levels. Well we can count on Obama and the bipartisan Congress to follow #3, responsibly raising taxes. Oh wait, nevermind that one also; they just approved continuing massive tax cuts.

That leaves us with number 2, the printing presses; the Zimbabwe School of Economics. The printing presses steal from China and other creditors. There is only so long we can get away with that before the Asians tell us to take our printing presses and shove them up our azz. Remember, American math scores suck; Asian math scores don't. They know the game even if we are too stupid to know it. Chinese students laughed Geithner off the stage when he tried playing them for stupid Americans by saying China's assets are safe with a strong dollar.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-students-laugh-at-tim-geithner-2009-6
 
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A cat can be a deadly weapon just look at the video at 9:40 mark.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNN9T0yLfME&feature=related

My money's on something akin to what happened in Argentina. I don't think it will be abrupt, and I don't think it will be soon.

Life will go on, mostly normally, but we will all be poorer for it.



I don't think I'll ever need the .45 I carry every day or the long term storage food we have.

I also don't think I'll ever need my auto insurance policy.

If I ever need that rottweiler to protect me, I'm screwed, because he's totally docile. He won't even bark at strangers. Our cat is actually more threatening.
 
"The world's largest bond fund has moved out almost entirely from US debt and into that of emerging markets and corporations."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42013272

How far behind is China? Remember, they laughed Geithner off the stage. They know exactly what Pimco knows and what I know; our debt is crap.
 
"The world's largest bond fund has moved out almost entirely from US debt and into that of emerging markets and corporations."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42013272

How far behind is China? Remember, they laughed Geithner off the stage. They know exactly what Pimco knows and what I know; our debt is crap.

China is not about to do anything that would decrease US consumption of Chinese goods. If/when Chinese domestic consumption is adequate to maintain employment in their population, they can worry about US debt being a bad investment. Until then, they have to send dollars back to the US somehow, so we can spend them again. We won't let them buy up too much US property or companies, so buying debt is the only way to keep the cycle going. Right?
 
I'm gonna go out on a crazy limb and predict that in 2011 we see modest growth in the US economy, we keep adding private sector jobs, inflation and interest increase at a desirable rate, and the US does not default on its debt. Crazy, right?
 
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