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Hello, I am a long time follower of this forum posting for the first time. I am a 3rd year medical student trying to assess the current environment of competition of the various specialities using USMLE Step 1 as a sole measure. I am well aware of the 2009 NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match (COM) and was looking to get some opinions until the 2011 NRMP COM is made available.
The reason for my curiosity is based upon two ideas:
(1) Looking at the past NRMP COM documents (2005, 2007, and 2009) I have noticed an increase in average scores for matched applicants to just about all specialties. This basically resonates the idea that "every year is getting more competitive".
(2) However, by a simple SDN search it seems that the average US/Canadian score on USMLE Step 1 in 2007 was 222 vs. 221 in 2008-2010. Assuming those who took the 2007 exam matched in 2009 and their data is in the current NRMP COM, it may be possible that USMLE scores as a whole were slightly higher in the 2009 match than the 2010 and 2011 matches.
To put it into perspective:
The average USMLE Step 1 in 2003 was 216 (2005 match applicants; 1st NRMP COM available)
The average step 1 in 2005 was 217 (2007 match applicants; 2nd NRMP COM)
The average step 1 in 2007 was 222 (2009 match applicants; current NRMP COM)
The average step 1 post-2007 seems to have been stable at 221.
Interpreting this data, it seems obvious why the three existing NRMP COM documents showed in increased trend in just about every specialty. However with the stabilization of USMLE averages for the past 3 years, is it possible that the overall competition (in terms of USMLE Step 1) hasn't really differed since the 2009 match? Since pre-med I was always under the assumption, "ever year is getting more competitive", with that in mind could we be seeing a "stabilization" of competition in the years to come?
The reason for my curiosity is based upon two ideas:
(1) Looking at the past NRMP COM documents (2005, 2007, and 2009) I have noticed an increase in average scores for matched applicants to just about all specialties. This basically resonates the idea that "every year is getting more competitive".
(2) However, by a simple SDN search it seems that the average US/Canadian score on USMLE Step 1 in 2007 was 222 vs. 221 in 2008-2010. Assuming those who took the 2007 exam matched in 2009 and their data is in the current NRMP COM, it may be possible that USMLE scores as a whole were slightly higher in the 2009 match than the 2010 and 2011 matches.
To put it into perspective:
The average USMLE Step 1 in 2003 was 216 (2005 match applicants; 1st NRMP COM available)
The average step 1 in 2005 was 217 (2007 match applicants; 2nd NRMP COM)
The average step 1 in 2007 was 222 (2009 match applicants; current NRMP COM)
The average step 1 post-2007 seems to have been stable at 221.
Interpreting this data, it seems obvious why the three existing NRMP COM documents showed in increased trend in just about every specialty. However with the stabilization of USMLE averages for the past 3 years, is it possible that the overall competition (in terms of USMLE Step 1) hasn't really differed since the 2009 match? Since pre-med I was always under the assumption, "ever year is getting more competitive", with that in mind could we be seeing a "stabilization" of competition in the years to come?
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