Couples matching odds of 1st, 2nd, 3rd rank etc

[fanc2234]

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So according to the 2013 charting outcomes, single US seniors have a 52.5% chance of matching at your #1 program, a 68.5% chance of matching in your top 2, a 78.8% chance of matching in your top 3, and an 85.5% chance of matching in one of your top 4 programs.

For couples matching does anyone know if these stats are available? If not is it reasonable to just square the percentages there (e.g. couples have a 73% chance of matching in their top 4)?

 

[gutonc]

So according to the 2013 charting outcomes, single US seniors have a 52.5% chance of matching at your #1 program, a 68.5% chance of matching in your top 2, a 78.8% chance of matching in your top 3, and an 85.5% chance of matching in one of your top 4 programs.

For couples matching does anyone know if these stats are available? If not is it reasonable to just square the percentages there (e.g. couples have a 73% chance of matching in their top 4)?

If you didn't find it in Charting Outcomes, it's not out there.

And I doubt that just squaring the percentages will give you the right answer.

 

[Mad Jack]

This is going to vary widely depending on what the couples are trying to match into. A couple trying to couples match rural IM/FM is going to fare a hell of a lot better than an ortho/derm couple shooting for big cities. The couples match isn't a simple odds game, not by a long shot.

 

[gutonc]

This is going to vary widely depending on what the couples are trying to match into. A couple trying to couples match rural IM/FM is going to fare a hell of a lot better than an ortho/derm couple shooting for big cities. The couples match isn't a simple odds game, not by a long shot.

Well...yes and no. The couple shooting for rural IM/FM probably has lower stats and fewer options. While the couple shooting for ortho/derm in a big city has hopefully self selected stats-wise and will have numerous possible combinations in each of those cities.

But your point about the numbers being complicated (to the point of it being useless to even try to figure them out) is quite valid.

 

[J ROD]

Squaring is not accurate. No clue on how to determine that since it is very specific.

Just wait............it is less than 2 weeks now.

 

[mvenus929]

It's less than the chance of matching there as an individual, and greater than 0. No one is going to be able to give you exact numbers beyond that.