Curious Question...How many applicants do you think applied to the top 20's...

the mega millions jackpot in ca is currently at $340M. i hear people on the bus talking about how they're in on a pool of 100 tickets at work. the higher the jackpot gets, the more people get interested, as if the odds are suddenly in your favor - isn't it the opposite though, since more people are playing? what this has to do with the above post i don't know.

 

When the jackpot is that high people have a higher expected value and in some cases it's actually positive... even if it's only like +20 cents.

 

does this factor in the increased chances of having to share the prize, if one wins?


much better thread topic.

 

i'm sorry. the answer is 1,487.

 

that's like saying "if you don't like america, don't live here."

sorry, some of us take it upon ourselves to hijack stuff.

 

I've thought about that too, lol. I'd rather have significantly higher odds of winning single digit millions of $$ than having terrible odds of winning $10M-400M.

 

To the OP, wouldn't most people apply to the Top 20? Even just for fun.

 

he's interested in those that *only* applied to the top 20s. as i indicated, the answer is 1,487.

 

Well, the odds stay the same. There's still a 1: whatever million chance that you'll match the right numbers. It's just that more people are playing, so it's more likely that someone will pick those numbers, but the odds of an individual picking them with their ticket are still the same.

 

1488, according to the last US census. It's a fact.

 

this is why i'm wondering if the expected value is still good, given that you're also increasing your chances of sharing the prize (i.e., more likely that others will pick the same numbers you do).

 

my bad. i was using the projected numbers for 2010. didn't mean to mislead.

 

The odds of winning are still the same, but the chance that you'll share the prize with another winner does increase (two separate odds).

 

yes, and i'm wondering at what point for a given jackpot would there be too many other people playing that the expected value is negative.







incidentally, for $573 million the answer is 1,487 people.

 

You shouldn't care what other people do, just apply to the schools you are interested in and do what will make you happy. If it makes other people happy to apply to only top 20 schools it is their right to do so.

Also, even if your grades are a bit lower than their averages, it doesn't mean you don't have a shot. An average has numbers above and below, and you might as well give it a try if the school interests you.

 

What are nontop 20 worthy credentials?

 

ANYWAY...superlotto is also about $50M; i'm tempted to buy a ticket...

 

oh, then the answer is "yes."

but seriously, you're preaching to the sdn choir when you claim that rankings aren't so important and one should apply to schools that one likes. there is some debate about the importance of prestige for academic medicine or super-competitive specialties, but this doesn't apply to most applicants.

 

oh yeah, sorry i had helped derail our lotto thread. we should start an sdn pool for the $50M.

 

Yeah... so I have a friend who wants to know if he can get in on the pot.

 

cool. i'll set up a paypal account to receive the money. just please remind your friend that it's an extremely small chance that i, um, i mean we, will win any money. but if we do win i'll try to make sure he gets his share at some point, minus my appropriate comission and jackpot finder's fee, of course.

 

Lotteries are a regressive tax on people who don't know math.

 

whatever, dude. i'll have you know that i've scratched and won before. that's right, won. had to split it with my step-dad, though.