Dental school applicant numbers to decline?

[Teeths]

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Maybe this has already been talked about but I wanted to get opinions on it...

Do you think there will be a decline in the near future of dental school applicants based on the skyrocketing price tags of some of these private schools?

I have a lower GPA and an average DAT, so besides my state school, realistically I'm looking at a huge price tag if I get accepted to a private school and it's a little scary! I wholeheartedly want to become a dentist so I'll still end up going to a pricey school if it's my only option, but is this a concern a lot of you have or do you just brush it aside and know you'll just have to be repaying loans for quite some time?

Thanks

 

[UCSFx2017]

The current trend is a general increase in applicants. There definitely exists a threshold at which point the cost of attending a dental school is no longer worth the career path in terms of money.

Here, this is from another thread,

Courtesy of the awesome "Bereno".
See attached.
This is strictly my hypothetical schedule if I wanted to pay only approx. $5,000 per month which was my threshold. It would take me 3-years to pay off my in-state school at this rate and 5-years for my out-of-state school. This considers only tuition, fees, and instrument costs.

In-state
1st year: $37,084
2nd year: $36,659
3rd year: $36,475
4th year: $36,659
Payback duration = 3 years
$5,346 per month
Total paid = $192,465

Out-of-state
1st year: $67,376
2nd year: $52,323
3rd year: $53,804
4th year: $53,042
Payback duration = 5 years
$5,396 per month
Total paid = $271,766.64

This is an incredibly difficult decision to base off of intangible objects, such as reputation and personal well-being, and tangible objects, such as cost-of-attendance. Money is a great form of measurement but it is difficult to convert things like reputation and well-being into dollar value. The conversion rate from intangible values to dollar value differs with different people. How much money and time are you willing to spend on a particular school?

It is very easy to blame the schools for skyrocketing cost-of-attendance but if dental schools are anything like medical schools, they receive around 3% of their total revenue from tuition on average.

"However, it is interesting to note that overall medical school revenues have been increasing over the past decade. This means that although tuition and fees may account for around 3% of revenues on average from year to year, the overall increases in revenues indicate that tuition is increasing at a much higher rate since the 3% is part of a larger overall revenue stream."

http://www.amsa.org/AMSA/Homepage/About/Committees/StudentLife/TuitionFAQ.aspx

 

[sacapuntas]

Now forgive me for not doing my research, but based on my somewhat reliable memory of some threads I have read by doc toothache, I thought number of applicants peaked in 2009ish and has remained constant or declined since. Perhaps the threat of mid-levels, walmart scenarios and debt load has finally caught up to dentistry and the # of pre-health students that turn to dentistry has already peaked?

 

[sacapuntas]

The current trend is a general increase in applicants. There definitely exists a threshold at which point the cost of attending a dental school is no longer worth the career path in terms of money.

Here, this is from another thread,


It is very easy to blame the schools for skyrocketing cost-of-attendance but if dental schools are anything like medical schools, they receive around 3% of their total revenue from tuition on average.

"However, it is interesting to note that overall medical school revenues have been increasing over the past decade. This means that although tuition and fees may account for around 3% of revenues on average from year to year, the overall increases in revenues indicate that tuition is increasing at a much higher rate since the 3% is part of a larger overall revenue stream."

http://www.amsa.org/AMSA/Homepage/About/Committees/StudentLife/TuitionFAQ.aspx

Curious about this statement as it relates to dentistry, because unlike med schools we have in-house clinics that bring revenue. So let's say a school has 100 students at 50,000 a year in tuition, that is only $5 mil in tuition. Do you know what the typical operating budget of a dental school is? It has to be far higher than that...

 

[UCSFx2017]

Now forgive me for not doing my research, but based on my somewhat reliable memory of some threads I have read by doc toothache, I thought number of applicants peaked in 2009ish and has remained constant or declined since. Perhaps the threat of mid-levels, walmart scenarios and debt load has finally caught up to dentistry and the # of pre-health students that turn to dentistry has already peaked?

It looks like they peaked in 2007. Although this graph says approx. 11,000 for 2007, the pdf says it was around 13,000. From 2008-11, they appear to be teetering around 12,100.

http://www.ada.org/sections/professionalResources/pdfs/survey_ed_vol1.pdf

 

[UCSFx2017]

Curious about this statement as it relates to dentistry, because unlike med schools we have in-house clinics that bring revenue. So let's say a school has 100 students at 50,000 a year in tuition, that is only $5 mil in tuition. Do you know what the typical operating budget of a dental school is? It has to be far higher than that...

Wow a surprising 27% of revenue is from tuition and fees alone for this particular dental school. This isn't the average for all dental schools. I don't think ADA/ADEA publishes that kind of information.

This was the expenditure distribution for a different fiscal year for the same school.

 

[sacapuntas]

Haha you have a pretty strong research streak in you. Next time instead of googling something I am just going to PM you🙂

 

[UCSFx2017]

Haha you have a pretty strong research streak in you. Next time instead of googling something I am just going to PM you🙂

haha I'm just bored of studying right now.

 

[AlbinoPolarBear]

Curious about this statement as it relates to dentistry, because unlike med schools we have in-house clinics that bring revenue. So let's say a school has 100 students at 50,000 a year in tuition, that is only $5 mil in tuition. Do you know what the typical operating budget of a dental school is? It has to be far higher than that...

Did a quick google search and came up with this:

So 20-22 million for around 400 total students. ~$55,000 per student.
Will be a bit more per student if you include students who drop out. I read somewhere a long time ago the attrition rate is around 4% for US dental schools.

 

[jeffity]

This information is published. I'll dig it up when I get home if someone doesn't find it before then. Revenues from out-of-pocket tuition are obviously going to vary depending on private vs. public. But from what I recall, about half of all revenues come from tuition for both private and public, but public had that state support like the example shown above. And clinic revenue wasn't as much as I thought it was, especially from schools with no specialty programs. Like 10-20% average. I guess slow wasteful pre-docs aren't too good at generating lots of money.

 

[Teeths]

Thanks everyone for the information!

Just curious about this since price seems to be getting way up there and it looks like DAT averages are going up as well (20 instead of 19 AA).

 

[Shazzam]

Thanks everyone for the information!

Just curious about this since price seems to be getting way up there and it looks like DAT averages are going up as well (20 instead of 19 AA).

If the loan figures scare you, don't forget that you have options such as the HPSP. There are definitely ways to get the loan paid off.

 

[diasIItema]

Do you think there will be a decline in the near future of dental school applicants based on the skyrocketing price tags of some of these private schools?

No, b/c most of my first-year classmates thought dentistry was a get-rich-quick scheme and had no concept of loans, interest, opportunity-cost, ACA, etc. Seriously, it blows my mind how ignorant some students are about the profession they chose and about the cost of attendance. We have students who enrolled OOS that will graduate with $400,000 student loan debt and had no idea until several months into school. WTF.

 

[Cello]

It's funny, on the med school forums they keep talking about how scary the debt is and how they'll never pay it off. Then, when you ask them why they don't consider the MD/PHP route to get a free MD, they say that it's not worth it financially. Most say that a $300,000+ loan is not worth missing out on three to five years of income. Then you have the folks who claim that the military isn't worth it either. Despite having to pay nothing for the education, and even making money while doing so, they say that you come out behind your peers who simply took the loans in the end.

 

[Bis-GMA111]

It's funny, on the med school forums they keep talking about how scary the debt is and how they'll never pay it off. Then, when you ask them why they don't consider the MD/PHP route to get a free MD, they say that it's not worth it financially. Most say that a $300,000+ loan is not worth missing out on three to five years of income. Then you have the folks who claim that the military isn't worth it either. Despite having to pay nothing for the education, and even making money while doing so, they say that you come out behind your peers who simply took the loans in the end.

a lot of people also don't take the time to do the research.

 

[Cello]

Having done a lot of the research myself here on these forums and elsewhere, I'd say it's a mixed bag. Really, it depends heavily upon your individual situation. If you're going to dental school with a wife and kids, you will simply have a harder time financially than a single graduate, regardless of what path you take.

But, it doesn't take much research to see that missing out on four years of income to earn a PhD would cost an MD around $800,000 of lost income. That is twice as much income lost as they'd save even with $400,000 in loans. The same is likely true for dentists. But, this is also dependent upon what a dental graduate plans to do post-graduation.

 

[Bis-GMA111]

As a person who is quite versed in this area as well, I've compiled all of the data into a graph which summarizes data collected throughout the years.

As you can see, back then people didn't care. now, people care.

 

[Lemillion]

as a person who is quite versed in this area as well, i've compiled all of the data into a graph which summarizes data collected throughout the years.

As you can see, back then people didn't care. Now, people care.

+1

 

[Teeths]

As a person who is quite versed in this area as well, I've compiled all of the data into a graph which summarizes data collected throughout the years.

As you can see, back then people didn't care. now, people care.

👍

 

[Cello]

Your "graph" doesn't change the fact that missing on many years of full income could still potentially be more costly than taking the loans. There are simply too many variables to give a one-size-fits-all answer. Are you going to your state school or an ivy? Do you have a family to care for? Does your spouse work? Are you single? Do you live with your parents?

Also, it's worth mentioning that virtually EVERY career field is experiencing this same problem right now. Lots of applicants for few available positions. Blame the collapse of industry / manufacturing in this country. Blame the fact that a high school diploma simply doesn't cut it anymore. Maybe financial institutions have discovered that student loans are the final frontier as they've left everything else in ashes. Who knows? But the topic of opportunity cost which comes up on these forums frequently seems to assume that better opportunities still exist. Today, the docs, lawyers, pilots, and most other careers formerly seen as bastions of wealth are all squealing. Hell, even the military guys are getting screwed and they've traditionally had some of the best benefits around.