Diagnostic Tests as Baselines vs. Predictors

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deleted645092

I am looking for some advice regarding what I should think of the following scores regarding diagnostic exams that I have taken over the past few months while prepping for Step 1 and Level 1.

January: Kaplan Step 1 Diagnostic Exam: 55% (hadn't started 2nd semester yet).

March: Truelearn COMBANK Level 1 Self Assessment #1: 70.0%, 63rd percentile -> 546-547 predicted.

April: NBME Step 1 Self-Assessment Form 13: 82.5% -> 460 NBME score, 219 converted score -> ~31st percentile.

UWorld: 601 completed, currently on first pass, 63.5% correct, completely random.

The confusion I am having with these numbers is that the first 2 have put me at the top 5 in my class for each of these diagnostics (part of our mandatory Level 1 prep), and the Truelearn assessment claims that the predicted percentile was based on data from students taking their tests 1 month before COMLEX, however my percentile dropped so much on the NBME Form 13 (I understand that the percentiles are for different tests, but should I really drop that much between the 2?). Can anyone provide me with insight about what these might mean, and what I should do from here? All that I can think of is that Step 1 is either that much harder than Level 1, the percentiles are fudged for COMLEX, or I should just interpret the Step 1 and Level 1 information independently, and use the 219 as a baseline over the next 3 months while I ramp up into dedicated time. I currently plan on taking the UWorld SIM 1 at the beginning of May, SIM 2 at the beginning of June, and at least 1 NBME the week before Step 1 in July.

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NBME's usually predict your USMLE score within +/- 5 of actual once you're doing studying.

I've never had anybody remark that COMBANK predicted anything close to their actual COMLEX score. The company has a very bad reputation among our students.


Thank you, that's what I had thought, especially with such a drastic change in the absolute score required to meet a certain percentile between COMBANK and NBME 13. (Lower absolute score = higher percentile? Yea right)
 
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