DO Match Rate 2016

[hallowmann]

So I've actually posted this info in another thread in the Osteo subforum, but felt it might be useful for current applicants as its own thread.

Up until now this information was difficult to confidently estimate due to the lack of clear DO info in the NRMP match reports and the fact that the NMS match occurs before the NRMP match so it complicates things. Anyway, here goes:

The 2016 DO match rate (as in true match rate) for all seniors seeking GME is somewhere between 87.2% and 88.4%. For reference, the US MD seniors 2016 match rate was 93.9%.

The range is due to the lack of breakdown of the 132 DOs that SOAPed into seniors vs. past graduates. At least 69 seniors attained positions in the SOAP. If all of the other DOs who SOAPed were seniors, the match rate would be 87.2%. If all of the other DOs that SOAPed were previous graduates, the match rate would be 88.4%. The true match rate is likely somewhere between these two.

The corrected DO senior NRMP match rate is somewhere between 86.4% and 88.8%, again varied depending on the breakdown of the SOAP. 2699 seniors and 283 previous graduates participated in the NRMP match. 2465 seniors attained positions in the NRMP match and SOAP.

The combined DO senior and graduates NRMP match rate is the reported 80.3%. For comparison, the combined US MD senior and graduate NRMP match rate is ~90%.

The 2016 placement rate of DO seniors is 99.61% meaning that 21 current graduates (0.39%) that wanted GME failed to attain it. An additional 43 did not wish to attain GME this year. 535 current DO graduates scrambled into AOA spots (~10%, which is the majority of the remaining 11.2%-12.4% unmatched seniors that placed).

The information is based on these two documents:

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2016.pdf
http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2016-match-report.pdf?sfvrsn=20

Also, Happy 4th of July everybody!

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[tictac3]

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[tictac3]

just looked through the links you posted, makes sense now!

 

[hallowmann]

thanks for this! just a quick question (sorry I am trying to learn about the match rates as much as possible) - what is the difference between the initial 88.4% you stated and then the 99.61% ?

What is the difference between match rate and placement rate? Or do these percentages differ because the first one is based on only MD residencies while the last one is based on MD and DO residencies that DOs matched into?

Match rate means matching to a residency program through one of the residency matching services (NRMP, NMS, SF, military, etc.). The process involves ranking programs at which you interview, the program submitting a rank list for applicants, and the algorithm finding the best mutual match for all programs and applicants.

Placement rate means the rate at which graduates attain graduate medical education. This includes those that attained positions in the match, SOAP (a form of mini matches for unmatched applicants and unfilled programs that happens after the NRMP match), and scramble (essentially attaining a position after the match by applying directly to the unfilled programs).

The match rate I calculated is total match rate (AOA and ACGME). Placement rate for US MDs is also 99-100%

 

[tictac3]

gotcha! that makes sense, thank you for taking the time to post!

 

[MADD!!!]

Still confused for the difference between the 88% and the 99.6% stats.

 

[kamakazi5]

Still confused for the difference between the 88% and the 99.6% stats.

Essentially, 88% got into a residency of their choice. The remaining 12% did not get into a residency of their choice but most were able to find a residency somewhere that didn't fill all of their positions, whether it was in the specialty they wanted or not. Most of these are likely "less desirable" locations.

 

[MADD!!!]

Essentially, 88% got into a residency of their choice. The remaining 12% did not get into a residency of their choice but most were able to find a residency somewhere that didn't fill all of their positions, whether it was in the specialty they wanted or not. Most of these are likely "less desirable" locations.

Meaning that 12% matched through SOAP?

 

[Ho0v-man]

Meaning that 12% matched through SOAP?

Yes. Before anyone starts freaking out (like I did when I first saw this) there are more safety nets for DOs to fall through in this whole process than MDs. This rate will probably go up after the merger eliminates them.


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[hallowmann]

Meaning that 12% matched through SOAP?

10% scrambled. At most, 2.5% SOAPed.

To clarify something said above, it's very possible that people attained a residency type of their choice through the scramble/SOAP. Its not guaranteed however. It's also not guaranteed that those who scrambled AOA (~10%) attained a categorical residency, some may have only attained an internship (like a TRI).

Of the previous graduates in the match, 30-50% attain GME in either the matches or SOAP. The remaining ones either scramble again or do not place. This is roughly on par with the track record of US MD previous graduates over the last decade.

I want to also make it clear that I actually took this as good news. It's guaranteed that the match rate of DOs would be lower than that of US MDs, as DOs are both not viewed as strong by PDs and that they have weaker apps in general. The only question becomes, how much lower? I don't consider 6% lower to be a particularly large or alarming number.

The roughly 10% that scramble can do so because of the existence of open AOA spots in the scramble. Only time will tell if this is still an option or is still necessary in the future. I don't anticipate this being a major problem, except that it may force DOs to apply more defensively, in order to guarantee a match without the scramble as a backup. This may entail applying to a greater number of residencies, going on a greater number of interviews, and potentially applying to an additional backup field.

 

[MADD!!!]

You mean down right?

Yes. Before anyone starts freaking out (like I did when I first saw this) there are more safety nets for DOs to fall through in this whole process than MDs. This rate will probably go up after the merger eliminates them.


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[tictac3]

@hallowmann where did the 30-50% number come from? don't the previously posted percentages say a lot more than 30-50% attain GME through matches?

 

[Ho0v-man]

You mean down right?


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No, up. DOs can currently apply to the most competitive specialties in the AOA and fail to match. Then go through the ACGME match and fail that. Then try to get into whatever is left over in in both matches. The AOA programs can't take MDs even as leftovers. So currently as a DO you don't really have to worry about not matching into community based FM/IM at an AOA program, if nothing else, since they probably aren't going to fill anyway. When DOs don't have all the security of their own match and a list of programs that are unfilled that can't take IMGs and or US MDs, they'll be forced to take the match more seriously and apply more defensively.

The current system doesn't punish applicants for applying like this:

AOA gen surgery. Fail

ACGME University IM. Fail

Scramble/SOAP into whatever since there will probably be an AOA opening somewhere.

Thus, I feel the match rate will increase because it will be way more important to get it right the first time like MD applicants have always had to do.

But that's just my opinion.


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[MADD!!!]

No, up. DOs can currently apply to the most competitive specialties in the AOA and fail to match. Then go through the ACGME match and fail that. Then try to get into whatever is left over in in both matches. The AOA programs can't take MDs even as leftovers. So currently as a DO you don't really have to worry about not matching into community based FM/IM at an AOA program, if nothing else, since they probably aren't going to fill anyway. When DOs don't have all the security of their own match and a list of programs that are unfilled that can't take IMGs and or US MDs, they'll be forced to take the match more seriously and apply more defensively.

The current system doesn't punish applicants for applying like this:

AOA gen surgery. Fail

ACGME University IM. Fail

Scramble/SOAP into whatever since there will probably be an AOA opening somewhere.

Thus, I feel the match rate will increase because it will be way more important to get it right the first time like MD applicants have always had to do.

But that's just my opinion.


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I understand your reasoning, but I disagree. I believe it's a numbers game, and with a match percentage of 99.6%, it can't go much higher but it can definitely go lower.

 

[Ho0v-man]

I understand your reasoning, but I disagree. I believe it's a numbers game, and with a match percentage of 99.6%, it can't go much higher but it can definitely go lower.

It's a placement rate of 99.6%. The match rate is lower.


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[hallowmann]

@hallowmann where did the 30-50% number come from? don't the previously posted percentages say a lot more than 30-50% attain GME through matches?

That is my rough estimate of the match rates of "previous DO graduates", i.e. not current senior applicants but rather individuals that either failed to place in the past, were off-cycle and had a long leave, left/lost their position during residency, people who wish to switch residencies, or placed only into an internship and they are looking for a categorical spot. Its kind of an amorphous population that includes some people that are attempting to place anywhere for years and because of deficiencies couldn't as well as competitive applicants that failed to match into a competitive specialty and scrambled into a TRI.

As I said, their rate of matching is likely similar to that of previous US MD graduates in similar circumstances, which I think is 50-60% historically.

It's a placement rate of 99.6%. The match rate is lower.

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I wouldn't be surprised if match rate goes up. I hope placement doesn't go down, but it might slightly. It can't drop below 95% without COCA getting involved.

 

[tictac3]

so is NRMP for MD and DO residencies?

because I am a little confused what the graph on page 4 of this document is saying

http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2016-match-report.pdf?sfvrsn=20

it shows around 50% matched through NRMP and around 50% through AOA...I know AOA is Do residencies but does NRMP not include DO residencies?

 

[IslandStyle808]

so is NRMP for MD and DO residencies?

because I am a little confused what the graph on page 4 of this document is saying

http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2016-match-report.pdf?sfvrsn=20

it shows around 50% matched through NRMP and around 50% through AOA...I know AOA is Do residencies but does NRMP not include DO residencies?

Currently the NRMP doesn't include DO residencies, only MD residencies. So the graph in page 4 shows NRMP match (the percentage of DOs who matched into MD residencies), military match (percentage of DOs who matched through the military), and AOA match (the percentage of DOs who matched into DO residencies). This should all add up to 99.61%.

When the AOA residencies convert to ACGME residencies, these numbers will be added to the MD residencies on the NRMP report. These DO residencies will continue to add till 2020. So for now consider virtually all residencies in the NRMP report to be MD residencies.

 

[hallowmann]

so is NRMP for MD and DO residencies?

because I am a little confused what the graph on page 4 of this document is saying

http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2016-match-report.pdf?sfvrsn=20

it shows around 50% matched through NRMP and around 50% through AOA...I know AOA is Do residencies but does NRMP not include DO residencies?

As IslandStyle808 said, that graph shows DO seniors placement results. The NRMP match includes only ACGME accredited residency programs (not AOA only programs). Those programs are open to MDs, DOs, foreign grads, etc. The AOA programs as of now are only open to DOs. After 2020 all programs will be ACGME accredited and none will be only AOA programs.

 

[tictac3]

thank you both for explaining that so well!

@hallowmann @IslandStyle808 just wondering your opinions since I have heard a lot of mixed things ... I know we won't really know until post 2020 but do you guys think the merger will be overall beneficial to DOs graduating post 2020 or it'll still be around the same?

 

[hallowmann]

thank you both for explaining that so well!

@hallowmann @IslandStyle808 just wondering your opinions since I have heard a lot of mixed things ... I know we won't really know until post 2020 but do you guys think the merger will be overall beneficial to DOs graduating post 2020 or it'll still be around the same?

Its a tough question. Overall I think it's a good thing for DOs. Whether that means things will be better for DO seniors then than it is now is a different question.

I believe that things would have been worse if the merger didn't happen, but in general things are getting more difficult so it might be harder in 2020 just because of the greater competition all around. That said,I doubt there will be any significant change one way or the other. As a DO, you'll still have options for residency, the vast majority will continue to place, and your own application will continue to have a big effect on what your options are for GME.

One thing I would suggest, and this is the same advice regardless of what happens in the future: work hard to have a competitive app. Study when you can. Get the material down. Do well on boards. Take every opportunity you can to work on your residency app (pad the CV, make connections, set up electives early, work on research if necessary, etc.). Don't just try to get by. If you do that you'll feel slightly less worried going in to 4th year and the app season.

 

[tictac3]

@hallowmann well said...i appreciate you starting this thread!

 

[IslandStyle808]

thank you both for explaining that so well!

@hallowmann @IslandStyle808 just wondering your opinions since I have heard a lot of mixed things ... I know we won't really know until post 2020 but do you guys think the merger will be overall beneficial to DOs graduating post 2020 or it'll still be around the same?

As mentioned by hallowmann, a lot is unknown at this point. Pre-residency, I could see both benefits and costs because of the merger. The benefits I would see are people who are stellar students are now able to create a match list of where they want to go, instead of being forced to match into an AOA residency (if they do both matches). This could lead to greater quality matches for those excellent students. However, the merger can also take the safety of matching into competitive specialties away.

So a somewhat competitive student could end up not matching into said specialty (i.e. dermatology, urology, plastic surgery etc.) because a stellar US MD student matched into that spot. It may lead to some DO students who will want to match into a safer speciality as a result. Then there are also those DOs who have multiple red flags, that could potentially not match. This could be because of the increase in DO students, or a stellar IMG took the spot.

However, don't let this freak you out, trust the history of matching. The history has shown that virtually almost all DOs will get a residency. These numbers won't tank drastically because of the merger (residency are also being created so this is slowing down the potential crunch that could happen due to increasing students).

Now post residency is where the pluses really start. You now have programs functioning at a higher quality level. You can have a greater chance at fellowships, because residency program directors won't scrutinize these former AOA residencies as much as before. You won't have hospitals employers who will scratch their head when looking at where you trained, if this was an AOA residency (I have seen a couple stories about this on here, some AOA programs were just that awful).

The pros outweigh the cons overall, the only issue really is matching into competitive specialities (and top programs for those who are extremely obsessed about it).

 

[tictac3]

@IslandStyle808 well explained! I'm in the midst of applying now so trying to learn everything I can haha thank you!