DO Match Rate 2018

[hallowmann]

A few things:
-Here are the 2016 and 2017 threads for reference - DO match rate 2016, DO match rate 2017
-These numbers are all based on published reports. Reports sometimes have errors. Either way, hopefully this is useful.
-This says nothing about the type of GME attained. Some are only intern year positions and not full residencies. That said, with completion of only an intern year and the full COMLEX series, a DO graduate can attain a medical license to practice in more than 30 states. Please see NRMP and NMS reports for residency distributions.

The 2018 DO match rate (as in true match rate) for all seniors seeking GME is between 82.3% and 91.5% (compared to between 88.7% and 89.2% for 2017). For reference, the US MD seniors 2018 match rate was 94.3% (compared to 94.3% in 2017).

Now you may be saying, wow that's a big range, way bigger than last year, and the low end is way lower. The reason is because the bottom got stretched out, because unlike last year, this year they did not specify DO seniors that scrambled AOA, so I can't definitively say who out of those that matched were seniors vs. previous graduates (479 total). If all of the ones that matched were DO seniors, its the higher number, if they were all previous DO graduates its the lower. The true number is probably ~88%, so possibly a bit lower than last year or around the same. At least 41 DO seniors scrambled AOA, and at least 1475 DO seniors matched, and that number could be as high as 1954 depending on how the 479 DO graduates placed.

There is a lack of breakdown of the 211 DOs that SOAPed (NRMP match) into seniors vs. past graduates. At least 107 seniors attained positions in the SOAP (compared to 139 in 2017). There appeared to be at most 104 previous DO graduates that attained positions in the NRMP match or SOAP.

The corrected DO senior NRMP match rate is somewhere between 84.9% and 87.3% (compared to between 87.5% and 88.3% in 2017), again varied depending on the breakdown of the SOAP. 4320 DO seniors (compared to 3323 in 2017) and 297 previous DO graduates (compared to 267 in 2017) participated in the NRMP match. 3878 DO seniors (compared to 3072 in 2017) attained positions in the NRMP match and SOAP.

The combined 2018 DO senior and graduates NRMP match rate is the reported 81.7% (compared to 81.7% in 2017). For comparison, the combined US MD senior and graduate NRMP match rate was 90.5% (compared to 90.7% in 2017).

The 2018 placement rate of DO seniors is 98.16% (compared to 99.34% in 2017) meaning that 112 current seniors (1.78%) that wanted GME failed to attain it (compared to 39 - 0.7% - in 2017). An additional 47 ( compared to 47 in 2017) did not wish to attain GME this year.


Conclusions:
-DO NRMP match rate experienced a drop from last year. 0.2-2.4%, so it could just be year-to-year variation, but at very least, the rise that DOs in the NRMP match have been experiencing seems to be leveling off. It should also be pointed out that many more DOs participated in the NRMP match this year, mainly due to the merger, so it is not necessarily surprising.
-More DOs this year went without a GME position than compared to last year (112 vs 39). This is mostly due to a lower placement rate (98.14% vs. 99.34%) and likely partially due to an overall increase in DO seniors this year compared to last year (6303 vs. 5937) and partially due to the uncertainty with the match/merger.
--Something I would like to point out is that people need to know that the AOA match is different from the NRMP match. You need to apply more broadly in the NRMP match, because by default you are competing with far more people than in the AOA match. I also recommend everyone to have a backup no matter what match they are entering into. With DOs ultimately exclusively participating in the NRMP match, they need to adjust how they apply, and that does mean applying to more programs and going on more interviews. The days of applying and interviewing at 5-8 AOA programs are gone.
-Placement of DOs in AOA programs is down significantly from last year to this year (43% in 2017 to 32% in 2018). In turn the number placing into ACGME positions increased reciprocally from 52% in 2017 to 62% in 2018.
-The number of DO seniors not seeking GME this year stayed the same as last year (47), so with the increasing size, the percentage of DO seniors it represents as actually less (~0.7% this yr vs. 0.8% last year).
-Overall, congratulations to the class of 2018!


The sources of this data can be found here:
-AACOM placement report - https://www.aacom.org/docs/default-...rt-2018-final-apr162018.pdf?sfvrsn=5e1f2597_2
-NRMP match report - http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Main-Match-Result-and-Data-2018.pdf
-AOA match statistics - 2018 Summary by College

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[BorntobeDO?]

It doesn't surprise me that the overall match decreased. I think 81% will be our real match rate once the AOA is gone.

Appreciate the thread, as always. I know alot of work goes into this.

 

[ZezKaiEll]

Thanks for doing this again.

We are not worthy!

 

[hallowmann]

It doesn't surprise me that the overall match decreased. I think 81% will be our real match rate once the AOA is gone.

Appreciate the thread, as always. I know alot of work goes into this.

Its unclear if the overall match rate decreased. The DO senior NRMP match rate decreased slightly, which is kind of expected, but unfortunate, because unlike before when we had a self-selected group of people applying ACGME, this time we had far more applying because they had to because of the merger. Even if we see a similar rate of decline in the future, it should still keep the NRMP match rate somewhere in the mid-80s.

These next couple years are going to be rough, and there are going to be some growing pains. DOs will really have to learn how to apply ACGME, and they'll actually have to pay attention to what's important for their apps, because DO schools are terrible at advising with regards to that.

I think when its all said and done we'll still be around 85%, but the real problem is the expansion factor. A lot of my previous estimates were based on maintaining the rate of expansion from a few years ago. Oddly enough, the rate has actually gone up. Its far more new schools coming up than I even expected. I have no idea what they expect to happen.

COCA also eliminated the placement requirement, so there's no real incentive for schools to slow down or take care of their students in any way. Its basically guaranteed to result in worse placement outcomes.

 

[Yhorm the Giant]

Its unclear if the overall match rate decreased. The DO senior NRMP match rate decreased slightly, which is kind of expected, but unfortunate, because unlike before when we had a self-selected group of people applying ACGME, this time we had far more applying because they had to because of the merger. Even if we see a similar rate of decline in the future, it should still keep the NRMP match rate somewhere in the mid-80s.

These next couple years are going to be rough, and there are going to be some growing pains. DOs will really have to learn how to apply ACGME, and they'll actually have to pay attention to what's important for their apps, because DO schools are terrible at advising with regards to that.

I think when its all said and done we'll still be around 85%, but the real problem is the expansion factor. A lot of my previous estimates were based on maintaining the rate of expansion from a few years ago. Oddly enough, the rate has actually gone up. Its far more new schools coming up than I even expected. I have no idea what they expect to happen.

COCA also eliminated the placement requirement, so there's no real incentive for schools to slow down or take care of their students in any way. Its basically guaranteed to result in worse placement outcomes.

Makes me a bit nervous for being class of 2022, but maybe we can learn from class of 2020? Maybe that'll be enough time, but I'm guessing by class of 2024 they will have a much better idea of what they need to do, but also many more students to compete with.

 

[hallowmann]

Makes me a bit nervous for being class of 2022, but maybe we can learn from class of 2020? Maybe that'll be enough time, but I'm guessing by class of 2024 they will have a much better idea of what they need to do, but also many more students to compete with.

If you work hard, are realistic, do your research, and apply ACGME smart, you'll be OK, barring any redflags. If you are going for something particularly competitive (or even if you're not) have a backup plan.

 

[hallowmann]

Some new info provided by the Charting Outcomes and Program Director survey. This is posted in an independent thread on the Medical Students - DO forum, but I figured some highlights in this thread that are more relevant to pre-DO students would be beneficial:

A few things:
-They separated seniors for Osteo!
-82.6% of Osteopathic Seniors matched to their preferred (i.e. the one they ranked first) specialties. Do not confuse this with the percentage that matched, as that number is higher (>85%).
-More specialties are represented, including more surgical subspecialties - the numbers aren't pretty for those.
-They included USMLE scores for Osteo (and they're actually on the higher side - Matched average is 227 and Unmatched average is 220 for Step 1, compared to 233 and 224 for US MDs)
-When it comes to surgery/surgical subspecialties:
----DOs consistently do worse compared to in other specialties
----For many of them, scores and research similar to US MD applicants in the same fields seems to be a big factor in matching or not.

What does this mean?:
-Surgery and surgical subspecialties are still an uphill battle. To be competitive you really have to compare to the US MD applicants for those fields, and as a group, those DOs that apply to those fields, generally don't.
-DOs should be ranking >10 programs at least
-DOs who are debating whether or not to take the USMLE Step 1 should aim for a score >210-220, but this varies by specialty, so adjust accordingly
-Competition is steep in a lot of fields in the NRMP, keep this in mind when you start to build your app and apply. Have backups, apply to enough programs to get sufficient interviews, and be realistic.

Charting Outcomes in the Match for US Osteopathic Seniors
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Charting-Outcomes-in-the-Match-2018-Osteo.pdf

Charting Outcomes in the Match for US Allopathic Seniors
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Charting-Outcomes-in-the-Match-2018-Seniors.pdf


2018 NRMP Program Director Survey
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NRMP-2018-Program-Director-Survey-for-WWW.pdf
Some Points:
-This looks pretty similar to previous years (71% of NRMP programs consider DOs)
-Generally speaking more programs consider and regular rank DOs than US IMGs/non-US IMGs, however, there are exceptions and these are primarily in General Surgery and the surgical subspecialties. This is not a surprise, but still disappointing nonetheless.
-Interestingly, something like 40% of programs actually do have target cutoffs for COMLEX Level 1 scores. That actually means that the numbers for COMLEX mean something to those programs. Something like 20-30% of programs just care that the score is a pass.

 

[de Ribas]

Do not confuse this with the percentage that matched, as that number is higher (>85%).

Does it mean that 15% did not match anywhere?

 

[hallowmann]

Does it mean that 15% did not match anywhere?

Please refer to the first post in this thread, specifically:
-The 2018 DO seniors match rate (as in true match rate) for all seniors seeking GME is between 82.3% and 91.5% (big range, most likely somewhere in the middle, like 87-88%)
-The corrected DO senior NRMP match rate is somewhere between 84.9% and 87.3%.
-The 2018 total placement (as in placement into any GME) rate of DO seniors is 98.16%, and in the past it has historically been >98-99%.

 

[CoomassieBlue57]

Does it mean that 15% did not match anywhere?

Placement ≠ match.

 

[hallowmann]

Just to clarify for some.
Matching is when NRMP/AOA applicant ranks residency programs, the programs rank them and ultimately a applicant will matched to a specific program.
Placement is when an applicant doesnt match but get a residency slot thru non-match mechanism such a prematch or, more common , by SOAP (NRMP) or Final Opportunity (I think that's the name ) for AOA

It would be nice if AACOM actually prepared their summary report separating out DO Seniors and DO past grads for
NRMP Match
NRMP SOAP
AOA Match
AOA Final

Matching means that the applicant entered a match (any match, NRMP, AOA, AUA, SF match, Military, etc.) and as you described ranked programs and was matched at 1 program. Placement is any form of placing into any form of Graduate Medical Education, including both those applicants that have matched and those that have found GME positions in any other way, be that by pre-match (not permitted in all-in ACGME programs in the NRMP match), SOAP, or scramble.

In order to become licensed in the US, you must have completed some form of GME. ~35 states require at least 1 year of GME for unlimited licensure for DOs (the rest requiring 2-3 yrs). ~32 states require at least 1 year of GME for unlimited licensure for US MDs (the rest requiring 2-3 yrs). Almost all states require 2-3 yrs of GME for international graduates. Of note, all states also require completion of a licensing examination series, e.g. COMLEX Level 1, 2-CE, 2-PE, & 3 or USMLE Step 1, 2-CK, 2-CS, and 3.