hallowmann

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A few things:
-Here are the 2016-2018 threads for reference - DO match rate 2016, DO match rate 2017, DO match rate 2018
-These numbers are all based on published reports. Reports sometimes have errors. Either way, hopefully this is useful.
-This says nothing about the type of GME attained. Some are only intern year positions and not full residencies. That said, with completion of only an intern year and the full COMLEX series, a DO graduate can attain a medical license to practice in more than 30 states. Please see NRMP and NMS reports for residency distributions.

The 2019 DO match rate (as in true match rate) for all seniors seeking GME is between 84.7% and 95.2% (compared to between 82.3% and 91.5% for 2018). For reference, the US MD seniors 2019 match rate was 93.9% (compared to 94.3% in 2018).

The reason the range is so large is because I can't definitively say who out of those that matched were seniors vs. previous graduates (461 total in NMS match and 502 total in NRMP match). If all of the ones that matched were DO seniors, its the higher number, if they were all previous DO graduates its the lower. The true number is probably ~89-90% (likely not far from the last couple years).

There is a lack of breakdown of the 394 DOs that SOAPed (NRMP match) into seniors vs. past graduates. At least 205 seniors attained positions in the SOAP (compared to 107 in 2018). There appeared to be at most 189 previous DO graduates that attained positions in the NRMP match or SOAP (compared to 104 in 2018).

The corrected DO senior NRMP match rate is somewhere between 87.9% and 92.3% (compared to between 84.9% and 87.3% in 2018), again varied depending on the breakdown of the SOAP/previous DO grads. 5499 DO seniors (compared to 4320 in 2018) and 502 previous DO graduates (compared to 297 in 2018) participated in the NRMP match. 5281 DO seniors (compared to 3878 in 2018) attained positions in the NRMP match and SOAP.

The combined 2019 DO senior and graduates NRMP match rate is the reported 84.6% (compared to 81.7% in 2018). For comparison, the combined US MD senior and graduate NRMP match rate was 90.3% (compared to 90.5% in 2018).

The 2019 placement rate of DO seniors is 98.48% (compared to 98.16% in 2018 and 99.34% in 2017) meaning that 100 current seniors (1.52%) that wanted GME failed to attain it (compared to 112 - 1.78% in 2018 and 39 - 0.7% in 2017). An additional 54 (compared to 47 in 2017 and 2018) did not wish to attain GME this year.


Conclusions:
-DO NRMP match rate experienced a clear bump this year compared to last year by 1.6-5.0%. In 2018 it experienced a drop in the realm of 0.2-2.4%, so it could just be year-to-year variation, but at very least the NRMP match rate does not appear to be dropping, and if anything, might actually be increasing. It should also be pointed out that many more DOs participated in the NRMP match this year, mainly due to the merger, and many more former AOA programs are now exclusively in the NRMP match, which likely plays a role in these changes.
-Less DOs this year went without a GME position than compared to last year (100 vs 112), but last year constituted a steep increase compared to the year before (39). Overall placement rate is higher this year, which is reassuring, but is still lower than the previous placement rates of >99%.
--I will reiterate this in this thread as well: The AOA match is very different from the NRMP match. You need to apply broadly in the NRMP match, because by default you are competing with far more people than in the AOA match. I also recommend everyone to have a backup no matter what match they are entering into. With DOs ultimately exclusively participating in the NRMP match, they need to adjust how they apply, and that does mean applying to more programs and going on more interviews. The days of applying and interviewing at 5-8 AOA programs are gone.
-Placement of DOs in AOA programs is down significantly from last year, which continues the trend we saw the year before (43% in 2017 to 32% in 2018 to 13.6% in 2019). The percentage placing into ACGME positions continued to increase reciprocally from 52% in 2017 to 62% in 2018 to 83.6% in 2019.
-The number of DO seniors not seeking GME this year increased slightly, but is not far off from the previous two years (54 vs. 47). This is despite an increase in DO seniors by ~300. As a result the percentage of DO seniors seems pretty stable (0.8% in 2017, 0.7% in 2018, and 0.8% in 2019).
-Overall, congratulations to the class of 2019!


The sources of this data can be found here:
-AACOM placement report - https://www.aacom.org/docs/default-...cements-in-2019-matches.pdf?sfvrsn=3cd93c97_2
-NRMP match report - https://mk0nrmpcikgb8jxyd19h.kinsta...NRMP-Results-and-Data-2019_04112019_final.pdf
-AOA match statistics - 2019 Summary by College


EDIT:
As of the 2020 NRMP match we now have new data that further narrows the 2019 match rate. The total number of DO seniors that matched in the NRMP match was 4825, constituting a DO senior NRMP match rate of 88.1%. Using this, I can extrapolate an narrower range as noted below.

2019 DO Senior Match Rate is between - 88.4% - 91.6%

Source: Advance Data Tables 2020 as attached
 

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AnatomyGrey12

While this is definitely better than was predicted, it would be prudent to remember that in 2 years from now the DO applicant pool will have 1000 MORE applicants in it, and that number isn't going to slow down. The mass opening of low quality schools is going to hurt and I cannot recommend anyone go to one of them from here on out. Just a word of advice for DO applicants.
 
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DrStephenStrange

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While this is definitely better than was predicted, it would be prudent to remember that in 2 years from now the DO applicant pool will have 1000 MORE applicants in it, and that number isn't going to slow down. The mass opening of low quality schools is going to hurt and I cannot recommend anyone go to one of them from here on out. Just a word of advice for DO applicants.
While I understand the opening of a bunch of new schools is not good, but I do not believe that all new schools are bad schools. I go to a new school, and as I've said it before multiple times, in the long run, it's gonna be one of the better new schools. Just like CUSOM and ACOM did it. Although, I do think that at some point, eventually, there is going to be a slowing down in the expansion of both MD and DO schools. I don't know what it's going to take though, or if it's going to be too late by then.
 
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I didn't know you were still around! I pretty much joined sdn around 2014 because of you hah
Do you have any thoughts on DO match rates for general surgery?


Love and respect :horns:
 
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AnatomyGrey12

Just like CUSOM and ACOM did it.

I wouldn't label ACOM as a better school. Their attrition rate is pretty poor. I know you have strong opinions on this because you go to a new school (and at least they are doing SOMETHING so that is good), but the fact remains that these new schools are cranking out students without building hardly any GME. Even your school is not creating enough GME for enough of your graduating class to drastically change that narrative. A few PC residencies aren't going to cut it unless school expansion slows down. The DO applicant pool is rapidly expanding while the pool of DO friendly residency programs is staying relatively the same. Each year from here on out will look very different from the year before it as the applicant pool explodes more and more.
I didn't know you were still around! I pretty much joined sdn around 2014 because of you hah
Do you have any thoughts on DO match rates for general surgery?


Love and respect :horns:

If you break 550 you are in an ok position for former DO GS programs because a lot of them will still heavily weigh the audition, but a 600 is better. You essentially have to have a 230 on Step to really consider MD programs. The match rate below 230 is 50%, and goes up to 75% with a 230. If you have a 240+ and some research it goes all the way up to mid 80s. Bottom line: you need to look like an MD applicant. Also the types of programs open to you are very different. An MD applicant to GS with a 230s is in the running for many a quality University program while a DO with that will most likely have to look at mainly low tier community programs. Even people with 240s and 250s generally end up at community programs.
 
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I wouldn't label ACOM as a better school. Their attrition rate is pretty poor. I know you have strong opinions on this because you go to a new school (and at least they are doing SOMETHING so that is good), but the fact remains that these new schools are cranking out students without building hardly any GME. Even your school is not creating enough GME for enough of your graduating class to drastically change that narrative. A few PC residencies aren't going to cut it unless school expansion slows down. The DO applicant pool is rapidly expanding while the pool of DO friendly residency programs is staying relatively the same. Each year from here on out will look very different from the year before it as the applicant pool explodes more and more.


If you break 550 you are in an ok position for former DO GS programs because a lot of them will still heavily weigh the audition, but a 600 is better. You essentially have to have a 230 on Step to really consider MD programs. The match rate below 230 is 50%, and goes up to 75% with a 230. If you have a 240+ and some research it goes all the way up to mid 80s. Bottom line: you need to look like an MD applicant. Also the types of programs open to you are very different. An MD applicant to GS with a 230s is in the running for many a quality University program while a DO with that will most likely have to look at mainly low tier community programs. Even people with 240s and 250s generally end up at community programs.
How do I find these community programs?
 

hallowmann

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...The DO applicant pool is rapidly expanding while the pool of DO friendly residency programs is staying relatively the same. Each year from here on out will look very different from the year before it as the applicant pool explodes more and more.

I agree with most of your post, but I actually think we are seeing an expansion of programs willing to take DOs. It's one of the reasons more DOs have been matching into ACGME specialty residency programs (except for a handful of specialties) despite what's already been pretty aggressive expansion. That said, yeah, its not going to last and I think expansion is going to surpass the benefit DOs are seeing with a combined match pretty soon (like in the next few years).
 
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hallowmann

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Alright guys, I'm adding some additional info here now that we have more specifics about DO senior match rates from the NRMP.

Now you may ask why the numbers are a bit off compared to what I calculated in the past. I suspect there is some error either in the AACOM report, the NRMP report, or my assumptions. Its possible some people are simply excluded or counted twice (e.g. people who match an AOA intern year and ACGME being counted as two matches). I'm honestly not sure and the ranges are within 1-1.5%, so I'm not going to spend time trying to figure it out.

2020 DO Senior NRMP Match Rate is - 90.7% (To give you an idea, the US MD senior match rate was 93.7%)
2020 DO Senior Match Rate is likely between - 85.5% - 90.7%. Like other years, I suspect the match rate to be around 87-89%, which means that it has likely remained pretty stable throughout the merger despite many more graduates.

2019 DO Senior Match Rate is between - 88.4% - 91.6%
2018 DO Senior Match Rate is between - 86.0% - 93.6%
2017 DO Senior Match Rate is - ~87.6%
2016 DO Senior Match Rate is - ~86.9%

Source: Advance Data Tables 2020 as attached
 

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hallowmann

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Could you explain where 85.5% is coming from?

Estimated graduating class size based on 3rd year class size from 2018-2019, less the attrition which was estimated from an average of previous years' attrition. That number is by far the weakest because it is based on numerous assumptions. We won't know the actual number of graduates until after the end of the academic year, at which time we could better estimate the lower end of the match rate range.
 
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Kumorebi

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Estimated graduating class size based on 3rd year class size from 2018-2019, less the attrition which was estimated from an average of previous years' attrition. That number is by far the weakest because it is based on numerous assumptions. We won't know the actual number of graduates until after the end of the academic year, at which time we could better estimate the lower end of the match rate range.
He's practicing the dark arts
 
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