Do you think I can manage to score 230 on step 1?

[coolcat7]

Here is my situation: I finished this in 4 weeks:
1st pass through FA, Pathoma and UW system wise (overall average 60%) and USMLE RX system wise 48% done ( overall average 66%). Took NBME 16 and scored 200.

Then 3 weeks break in step studying because of some personal situation. To check if I still remember stuff without any studying for 3 weeks, I took NBME 15 two weeks ago and scored only 194.

Reset UW two weeks ago and doing random/ untimed/ tutor mode 2 blocks/day, almost done with second pass of FA (still need to review Endo/ Repro) but have not touched Pathoma for second pass yet and USMLE RX is also only 48% done. My overall average for 2nd pass of UW is 71% so far (35% done). The lowest scores are in Histology (59%), Pathology(63%), Pathophysiology (63%) and Pharmacology (67%).

Planning to take another NBME in a week and then a few more in the coming weeks. Taking step 1 in 3 weeks. Do you think I can manage to get a score close to 230? I am really worried about Pathology, Pathophysiology and Pharmacology as the UW averages are not that good so far. I am a fast reader and am usually done with a block of questions with 10-15 minutes early. Please suggest what should I do to achieve my goal.

Thanks!

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Troll-Like-Receptor]

Whats most predictive is your NBME scores. Getting a higher UW score on a second pass (hopefully this was done random/timed) doesn't matter, what is most predictive is first pass.

230, I don't think is possible for you in 4 weeks.

 

[coolcat7]

Whats most predictive is your NBME scores. Getting a higher UW score on a second pass (hopefully this was done random/timed) doesn't matter, what is most predictive is first pass.

230, I don't think is possible for you in 4 weeks.

Since I am doing my 2nd pass through FA and U World for the past 2 weeks, I am hoping to see some improvement in my next NBME which I am planning to take in a few days. Then in another 3 weeks, I should be able to improve some more. How much do you think I can improve from my initial NBME score of 200 by studying hard for 5 weeks with 2 passes through FA, one pass through Pathoma, re do UW completely and then do incorrect and flagged and finish the rest 52% of USMLE RX and taking 3 NBMEs?

 

[coolcat7]

Need to hear more comments and suggestions please !!!

 

[collegestud2013]

Your UWorld percentage of 60% translates to a 225-228 (http://usmle-score-correlation.blogspot.com/)

Your RX percentage of 68% translates to 2.64*68+47 = 227 (https://www.usmle-rx.com/benefits/predictive-actual-usmle-performance)

Thus it seems like a 230 is far off, but taking another NBME after you've studied some more probably has better predictive power.

 

[operaman]

There's a disconnect between your NBME scores and your first time UW percentage. My guess is that you did blocks of questions after reviewing the relevant material in FA and Pathoma, artificially inflating your score.

While nobody can read the tea leaves, I think 230 will be quite a stretch. You've been studying awhile already and I'm not sure how much can change in such a short period. Honestly, with NBME scores under low stress conditions hovering around 200, I would worry more about just passing.

It's probably time for some meetings with administration to talk about options for pushing back your test date or maybe even taking a year off for "research." With scores that close to failing, you have some serious content knowledge gaps that may take more time to fix. I would start talking options now and get a sense of what's available to you. Take another recent NBME form in 2 weeks and see where you are. If you're still around 200, I would pull the trigger and extend even if it means an extra year. If you fail, you'll have to take the time anyhow. If anything, the extra time could help you be sure of passing and give you time to do some research to bolster your application to help compensate for what may be a pretty low step score.

Sorry to bearer of bad news. I hope things turn around for you.

 

[coolcat7]

You are right, first time around I was reviewing a system in FA and then was doing relevant questions in UW. But now the second time around I am doing random in UW and my overall percentage is 71%. I hope, I am improving with my second pass of FA and UW. I am palnning to take another NBME next week. I will think about other options after this NBME. Thanks for your advice Operaman!

 

[coolcat7]

Your UWorld percentage of 60% translates to a 225-228 (http://usmle-score-correlation.blogspot.com/)

Your RX percentage of 68% translates to 2.64*68+47 = 227 (https://www.usmle-rx.com/benefits/predictive-actual-usmle-performance)

Thus it seems like a 230 is far off, but taking another NBME after you've studied some more probably has better predictive power.

Thanks Collegestud2013!

 

[coolcat7]

Whats most predictive is your NBME scores. Getting a higher UW score on a second pass (hopefully this was done random/timed) doesn't matter, what is most predictive is first pass.

230, I don't think is possible for you in 4 weeks.

Thanks Troll-Like-Receptor.

 

[operaman]

You are right, first time around I was reviewing a system in FA and then was doing relevant questions in UW. But now the second time around I am doing random in UW and my overall percentage is 71%. I hope, I am improving with my second pass of FA and UW. I am palnning to take another NBME next week. I will think about other options after this NBME. Thanks for your advice Operaman!

Yeah I think repeating UW is worthwhile, especially since you only knew half of it the first time. The carryover from remembered questions/concepts is huge though so I would not put any stock in the latest UW percentage. The NBMEs are really the best bet.

Remember this: there is an inherent level of error in the scaling process that generates the 3-digit scores. The NBME's published data says that 2 scores must differ by >16 points to be significantly different. This is why I was/am so concerned about pass vs fail. A 200 +/- 16 points is quite a range and it dips into failing territory (for you fellow stats nerds out there, yes I know that isn't exactly how that number works, just ballparking it). I think you want your final pre-test NBME to be at least 205-210 to be relatively confident in passing.

I would really think hard about starting a conversation with your administration about options to extend. Even if you don't ultimately have to, there may be some kind of process involved and it may take a little time. They may also have some additional resources to help you prepare. I've never heard of a situation where someone regretted addressing a potential problem earlier.

 

[coolcat7]

Yeah I think repeating UW is worthwhile, especially since you only knew half of it the first time. The carryover from remembered questions/concepts is huge though so I would not put any stock in the latest UW percentage. The NBMEs are really the best bet.

Remember this: there is an inherent level of error in the scaling process that generates the 3-digit scores. The NBME's published data says that 2 scores must differ by >16 points to be significantly different. This is why I was/am so concerned about pass vs fail. A 200 +/- 16 points is quite a range and it dips into failing territory (for you fellow stats nerds out there, yes I know that isn't exactly how that number works, just ballparking it). I think you want your final pre-test NBME to be at least 205-210 to be relatively confident in passing.

I would really think hard about starting a conversation with your administration about options to extend. Even if you don't ultimately have to, there may be some kind of process involved and it may take a little time. They may also have some additional resources to help you prepare. I've never heard of a situation where someone regretted addressing a potential problem earlier.

Thanks Operaman for the advice. I have already initiated the conversation with administration. Let us see how the next NBME goes. Fingers crossed.

 

[Psai]

just do the best you can, i don't see the point of aiming for a specific score. aim for a 300

 

[J ROD]

Also, think about this. I found the real deal to be much tougher and different. Maybe I got unlucky but I scored much lower than my practice NBMEs. I felt my test was half something I had never seen.

So, with that said, I would be more worried about passing Step 1 at this point than getting average. UW on the second attempt is not a good predictor. Only reviewing material.

 

[cbrons]

Your UWorld percentage of 60% translates to a 225-228 (http://usmle-score-correlation.blogspot.com/)

Your RX percentage of 68% translates to 2.64*68+47 = 227 (https://www.usmle-rx.com/benefits/predictive-actual-usmle-performance)

Thus it seems like a 230 is far off, but taking another NBME after you've studied some more probably has better predictive power.

Why would you think that algorithm is accurate at all whatsoever? Much more reliable predictor are the NBME CBSSA exams, since they are written by the same people who write Step I (and have a score correlation system that is regularly updated).

I would 100% trust my NBME score over some rando graph on blogspot.com