infinitesimal
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I found two conflicting surveys from the AAMC. Although they are from different years, I say conflicting because it's odd that within a year, the mean importance of undergraduate selectivity changed by the amount it did.
Here is an image from a previous thread. Undergraduate selectivity is shown to be as important on average as GPA/MCAT. This survey was taken in 2014. The next shows the same survey but updated for 2015:
Here undergraduate selectivity is shown to be as important as your undergraduate major. So does undergraduate selectivity matter?