Just really looked at the 2022 match data for the first time, crazy that EM is the new FM/path.
Also interesting that the number of available positions per applicant (in all fields) has been steadily increasing since 2010 and that DO match rate is almost as high as US MD match rates (91.3 vs 92.9 respectively). Also absolutely bananas to me that only 31.3% of FM positions were filled by US MD seniors and 37.2% of IM was US MD seniors. So much for schools trying to promote students going into primary care....
Yeah it was bonkers. Many specialties have risen and fallen dramatically in competitiveness in their history but I genuinely wonder if any other specialty ever crashed as hard as EM did.
I see two possibilities for the EM match this year. One is that they straight up have the same or more spots open in SOAP. In that case a strong applicant will have lots of choices. There were spots open in TONS of historically strong and/or well established programs at major academic centers.
The second possibility is that EM PDs face facts, interview a wider range of candidates including many they wouldn't have even looked at previously, and there are fewer spots open in SOAP (in this scenario, I still think SOAPing EM will be easy, just not quite AS easy).
However, making scenario 2 less likely is this--it is quite challenging to figure out who you shoukd invite to interview in general, and it gets more so when the specialty is undergoing major shifts. The competitiveness shifts in psych have introduced much more uncertainty than years past. I've had conversations with PDs and faculty advisors all around the country (I am an official faculty advisor at my institution, and heavily involved in med ed) and no one feels they truly understand the shifting dynamics. We're all just doing the best we can to provide up to date advice to applicants and trying to be honest about the uncertainties.
EM is undergoing a much more dramatic shift than psych is, and so PDs abilities to adjust on the fly are only going to get them so far. Additionally, SOAP isn't always bad for some programs--some new residencies will SOAP all of their first class on purpose, because they can skim more competitive applicants out of the SOAP process than they would the actual match.
Anyway this is a very longwinded explanation where the tl;dr is that EM is going to be easy to SOAP until the economcis of their specialty change. I don't think it's going to happen this decade, and the collapse of the healthcare system might well come first.