Early Match Statistics

[medstud721]

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Well, the results are in, and I'm happy to say that I will officially be an otolaryngologist. I received info re: statistics from the Dean's office, thought some may be interested.

Match Match % AVG USMLE(national)

Urology 77% 219
ENT 80% 234
Optho 81% 232

All matches seem pretty tight! Yikes


Good luck to all others...

 

[navs]

Congrats and good luck.

 

[godfather]

our school's assistant dean just announced everybody that applied to ophtho from our school matched.(i think it was like 8 people that applied)

 

[classic13]

medstud721,

Any news on Neurology front? Thanks.

 

[mcwmark]

Neurology and neurosurgery announce their match results next Monday and Tuesday (Feb. 4th and 5th), respectively.

 

[Voxel]

Urology's mean step I of 219 seems a little low is this different from previous years? Just curious.

 

[droliver]

How do these match % rank historically? With 4 out of every 5 matching, it seems like this would an easier match for some of these specialties than in the past?

 

[Voxel]

Urology match statistics for US seniors, 2001-1994, respectively.
76% 76% 71%73%82% 89% 90% 91%

 

[pags]

Originally posted by Voxel:
•Urology's mean step I of 219 seems a little low is this different from previous years? Just curious.•••

Yea, they're all going into radiology.

 

[droliver]

Voxel,

thanks for the info. Do you know the denominator is for this info so we can make sense of it (ie. how many positions are available & how many individuals thusly would not match with a 77% match rate vs. the higher 90% rate from the mid ninities)

 

[Voxel]

Positions offered 2001-1994, respectively in the Urology Match:
221, 230, 223, 202, 220, 237, 249, 253.

Applicants matched. 2001-1994, respectively.
218, 228, 223, 201, 219, 229, 236, 244

Applicants unmatched. 2001-1994 respectively.
108, 114, 158, 124, 121, 65, 57, 73

The unmatched applicant pool also includes non-US grads as well as non-senior US graduates (MDs already out).

 

[7ontheline]

Actually, for Ophtho the numbers above are not correct. The US senior match rate this year was 78%, down from 81% or so last year. The average board scores went up as well, so this was the hardest match in the last 5 years at least. Optho, while not on the level of something like Derm or ENT or Urology, seems to be back in the upper level of difficult residencies to match.

 

[7ontheline]

Addendum - the average board score of the matched applicant in Ophtho was 225, not 232. I got these numbers from SFmatch, along with my match results.

 

[Fah-Q]

where will you train medstud? any advice to those interested in going into otolaryngology-H+N surgery?

 

[droliver]

What was the USMLE step I mean & standard deviation for this years seniors?

 

[pags]

Mean score 215 with a standard deviation of 20.

 

[TheThroat]

Medstud,

Where are you doing your residency?

I went to Baylor College of Medicine and now am doing my internship at Iowa for oto.

 

[droliver]

If the mean score was 215 w/ SD=20, these #'s are much less impressive than in years past for some of these specialties. Wouldn't a 235 = 66% percentile, 255=90%, 275%=96?

 

[pags]

No. True Gaussian distribution would put a 215 at 50th percentile, a 235 at 84th percentile, a 255 at 97.5th percentile, and a 275 at 99.85th percentile. It is fairly safe to assume that due to the large sample of test takers and standardization of questions the score results should fall into a symmetrical bell curve.
Statistics provided by Kaplan 2000 USMLE review book.

 

[droliver]

Actually Pags, we were both a bit off

For a normally distributed data set, the empirical rule states that 68% of the data elements are within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% are within two standard deviations, and 99.7% are within three standard deviations.

What's surprising to me is that all 3 of these competative early match specialties failed to exceed 1 SD of the average score (ie you needed to be, on average, just above average on your boards to match).

 

[bugzee75]

I believe Pags is correct (and so is Dr. Oliver). If 68% of people fall within 1 STD then 32% are outside of 1 STD. Half of the 32% is above and the other half is below. Thus, a score that is above 1 STD places someone in the 84th percentile or higher.

 

[SUNYboy]

7ontheline,

Congratulations on your match! Where did you match at if you don't mind saying? Or at least which programs did you like during your interviews?

If any other Ophtho applicants out there can give any info on this year's interview trail, it would be appreciated. Yikes, looks like Ophtho has been getting really tough to match into the past 4 years. It's kinda scary!!!

 

[droliver]

bugzee75,

I think you would some kind of regression table to figure out what 84% would be. Exceeding the mean by 1.5 SD (score=245) would give you a score somewhere in the mid 80's%, wouldn't it?

God, I forgot how much I hated statistics!

 

[Whisker Barrel Cortex]

When figuring out the percentile based on mean and SD, think about the bell curve. Yes, 68% of the scores are within one SD of the mean. However, when dealing with percentile, you have to add 68% + the percentage that is on the lower end of the scale. As bugzee said, this lower end is 16% (the percentage of people one or more SD BELOW the mean) and the higher end is 16% (the percentage of people one or more SD above the mean). So, one SD from the mean (235), is at the 68%+16% or 100%-16%, which is th 84th percentile. Hope this explanation made sense.

 

[Vitaliano333]

If I may put in my 2 cents, 1.4 SD's above the mean is almost exactly at the 92 percentile while 1.6 is almost exactly at the 95 percentile. 1.5 is somewhere in between.

 

[7ontheline]

Thanks SUNYboy. Not that I want to interrupt this *incredibly* interesting discussion of statistics. . .but anyway I matched at U of Illinois-Chicago. I liked the Baylor program a lot, although Houston isn't my favorite city. If you can stand to go there, UNC is pretty good, and definitely seems to be on the upswing. Denver was OK too, although it seems like it's a few years away from being a really good "name" program. Great surgical volume though. Hope this helps.

 

[Big Daddy]

Does anyone know of a site where you can look at average step 1 scores for students from previous years who matched in other specialties, for example in pathology?