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[notsobabydoc]

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[Kardio]

My neuroticism kicked in bad. So I set out to find out the odds of getting into a t10 or t20. Here are the statistics (based on matriculants) and knock yourselves out!
Based on MSAR data, for school with 525 as the 90% percentile, I assumed 20% for 524+, for school with 524 as the 90% percentile, I assumed 13% to 15% based on class size. For schools which have 90% percentile below 524, I kind of assumed 5% for those with 523, and 3% for those with 522.
Conclusion for T10, the total 524+ matriculants are 217, for top 20 + top 10, it's around 260
Somewhere I read here that every year about 200 to 300 people scored a 524 to 528, so I assume the total applicants within that range are about the same. So the odds are near 100% for top 20, and almost certain for top 10, if you blanket all the top schools, barring some sub 3.5 GPA.

It looks like I didn't include University of Washington.

USnews Ranking	School	Class size	524+ percentage	524+ number
1	Harvard	165​	15%​	25​
2	Johns Hopkins	118​	20%​	24​
3	Stanford	90​	15%​	14​
3	Penn	152​	20%​	30​
5	UCSF	165​	15%​	25​
6	Columbia	138​	20%​	28​
6	UCLA	175​	5%​	9​
8	WUSL	124​	20%​	25​
9	Cornell	106​	5%​	5​
9	Mayo Minesota	103​	13%​	13​
9	Mayo Arizona
9	NYU	101​	15%​	15​
13	Duke	129​	3%​	3​
13	Pitt	162​	3%​	4​
13	Yale	104​	20%​	21​
16	Vanderbilt	93​	10%​	9​
16	Chicago	90​	3%​	2​
16	University of Michigan	168​	1%​	2​
19	Icahn	140​	3%​	4​
19	Northwestern	160​	3%​	4​

 

[ChymeofPassion]

Could you please provide the napkin used for these calculations??

 

[premed20172017]

@Goro and @gonnif SOS

 

[deleted987519]

Lol, sorry for the fearmongering. I am legit neurotic. This thread may look totally elitist or whatnot, but I hope it helps someone who has the same question that I have.

People really smart enough to score 100%ile on MCAT, yet could not figure out it gives them a good shot at the top medical schools SMH.

 

[premed20172017]

Lol, sorry for the fearmongering. I am legit neurotic. This thread may look totally elitist or whatnot, but I hope it helps someone who has the same question that I have.

It happens to the best of us.

 

[Kardio]

In this seemingly completely random process, everyone is seeking some sign of certainty and comfort. It's just our nature. If I can provide that to whoever needs it, why not?!

You just made the sub-524 crowd sign up for a retake though

 

[imbesrs]

Somewhere I read here that every year about 200 to 300 people scored a 524 to 528

Yeah but not everyone applies that same cycle that they take the MCAT prior to.

 

[gonnif]

Any applicant who has this level of neurotic analysis and fear would make me seriously question their emotional competency to be a physician

 

[premed20172017]

Listen, neuroticism is what defines us as a group of people who want to help others as much as we can. Fear is what drives us to alleviate others sufferings. I really don't know where your comment comes from.. Don't we all want to find the truth??? I could easily do a chart for people who scored between 510 and 513 if there were enough data.

I actually don't think neuroticism is what defines us as a group. Am I neurotic? Absolutely. Everyone can be neurotic, and at times, it can be very useful. Is neuroticism what will make me an excellent physician? No. My empathy, compassion, and grit are all aspects that I think will make me a good doctor. I think doctors ought to be driven by their desire to help people (cliche, I know), and make a tangible difference in this world.

 

[907914]

admittedly, 524 to 528 is almost 90% luck... so no one should set that as a real goal.

full disclosure: I am not an AAMC salesperson!

Anything above a 520 is down to variance on around 6 questions. TBH all of that is based on luck of which questions are asked and which content you know best/actually remember under pressure.

Anything 520+ is luck.

 

[premed20172017]

Agree, neuroticism alone doesn’t do it. But I bet we are ALL neurotic here.

If we're using SDN, we're absolutely neurotic. 100%. I have friends in various fields that are also neurotic, though. It's not the singular most important trait of pursuing a career in medicine, though.

 

[deleted987519]

Anything above a 520 is down to variance on around 6 questions.

How do you know?

 

[jfijiefjieji]

Agree, neuroticism alone doesn’t do it. But I bet we are ALL neurotic here.

Not this neurotic lol.

 

[907914]

How do you know?

A true 520 has a confidence band of 518 to 522. A true 524 has a confidence band if 522 to 526. That means based on luck, both a 520 and a 524 applicant could score 522. To me, that says that a 520 and a 524 really have no difference in meaning or ability to obtain.

 

[mdmd112]

A true 520 has a confidence band of 518 to 522. A true 524 has a confidence band if 522 to 526. That means based on luck, both a 520 and a 524 applicant could score 522. To me, that says that a 520 and a 524 really have no difference in meaning or ability to obtain.

hmm idk tho like I feel like there's a difference between a 524 or 520 in terms of content at least. From my experience it was always those couple of discrete question testing on very low yield concepts that differentiated these scores. Yes there's a little luck but if you studied a buttload then that's how you get those last couple of points.

 

[mdmd112]

Lol, I love how this devolves into what 520+ means

I think your table is pretty cool. Definitely makes me feel better since I literally only applied to these schools lol.

 

[Sephirakra]

Listen, neuroticism is what defines us as a group of people who want to help others as much as we can. Fear is what drives us to alleviate others sufferings. I really don't know where your comment comes from.. Don't we all want to find the truth??? I could easily do a chart for people who scored between 510 and 513 if there were enough data.

It comes from years of dealing with premeds such as yourself who think they're the first people to figure out basic statistics. There's a fine line between neuroticism (in the colloquial sense being used here) and rank entitlement. You can't post something like this then clutch your pearls as soon as someone posts something you don't like.

Perhaps that was a bit harsh. I hope you get into medical school, and I hope you do well. I truly do. But keep in mind no one deserves to get in, regardless of their MCAT score.

 

[Sephirakra]

I am not a typical premed.

Good luck with that.

 

[Goro]

My neuroticism kicked in bad. So I set out to find out the odds of getting into a t10 or t20. Here are the statistics (based on matriculants) and knock yourselves out!
Based on MSAR data, for school with 525 as the 90% percentile, I assumed 20% for 524+, for school with 524 as the 90% percentile, I assumed 13% to 15% based on class size. For schools which have 90% percentile below 524, I kind of assumed 5% for those with 523, and 3% for those with 522.
Conclusion for T10, the total 524+ matriculants are 217, for top 20 + top 10, it's around 260
Somewhere I read here that every year about 200 to 300 people scored a 524 to 528, so I assume the total applicants within that range are about the same. So the odds are near 100% for top 20, and almost certain for top 10, if you blanket all the top schools, barring some sub 3.5 GPA.

It looks like I didn't include University of Washington.

USnews Ranking	School	Class size	524+ percentage	524+ number
1	Harvard	165​	15%​	25​
2	Johns Hopkins	118​	20%​	24​
3	Stanford	90​	15%​	14​
3	Penn	152​	20%​	30​
5	UCSF	165​	15%​	25​
6	Columbia	138​	20%​	28​
6	UCLA	175​	5%​	9​
8	WUSL	124​	20%​	25​
9	Cornell	106​	5%​	5​
9	Mayo Minesota	103​	13%​	13​
9	Mayo Arizona
9	NYU	101​	15%​	15​
13	Duke	129​	3%​	3​
13	Pitt	162​	3%​	4​
13	Yale	104​	20%​	21​
16	Vanderbilt	93​	10%​	9​
16	Chicago	90​	3%​	2​
16	University of Michigan	168​	1%​	2​
19	Icahn	140​	3%​	4​
19	Northwestern	160​	3%​	4​

Can you explain how you intend to survive the pressure cookers of med school and residency if you're this neurotic now?

This is NOT giving medical advice, but suggest seeing your family doctor.

 

[907914]

my neuroticism kept me scouring the Internet for anything I didn’t know 100% on that crazy test

You are gonna die in medical school.

 

[Engrailed]

The table is impressive but... Lol the material to know in med school will just have you buried under mountains of textbooks (and no time for working with patients or other human beings) if you need to feel certain about every inch (or more like every centimeter) of material for the USMLE

 

[907914]

There are always people more capable than you can ever imagine.

And you are that guy, huh? Weird flex, mate.

I reiterate, you gonna die in med school.

 

[Lawpy]

is this thread another walt or cpm thread

 

[deleted976595]

There are always people more capable than you can ever imagine.

You truly are God's gift to pre-medicine 🤣

 

[jfijiefjieji]

There are always people more capable than you can ever imagine.

Having a high MCAT score doesn't mean you're smarter than everyone else, especially when you're in med school so chill with the god complex dude.

 

[premed20172017]

All I am saying is that through my life I have met so many people who are way beyond my wildest imagination what people can achieve. We are really a small sample of people and I am sure when we go through medical school, we will be amazed by how capable others can be. Just be open minded and try to empathize with people to understand their motives and intent. That’s what life experiences will teach us. Please just calm down, there’s no flexing here. I just want to present data to show that for a certain set of applicants, they probably have a 100% chance getting into a top program based on solely on MCAT. Just chill and appreciate the fact it’s not a totally random process after all.

There will ALWAYS be applicants with perfect stats who don't get in, though! If all schools looked for were perfect stats, then the averages would be way higher, don't you think? If someone with unreal stats messes up their interview, they might not get in. There's no guarantee in life, and there's no guarantee in med school admissions.

 

[907914]

just want to present data to show that for a certain set of applicants, they probably have a 100% chance getting into a top program based on solely on MCAT. Just chill and appreciate the fact it’s not a totally random process after all.

“Highest scoring applicants have the best chance of getting into the best places. Stats matter. Schools select based on non-random principles.”

This is all news to all of us.

Your chart and graphic are fantastic and thank you for producing data.

The following conversation...not so much.

 

[imbesrs]

ITT if you have a 524+ youre probably going to med school unless you are from area 51

 

[premed20172017]

ITT if you have a 524+ youre probably going to med school unless you are from area 51

Nah, I think if you're from area 51 you'll DEFINITELY get in. Think of the diversity that would add to the class! 😀

 

[907914]

ITT if you have a 524+ youre probably going to med school unless you are from area 51

We will see a sudden influx of 524+ applicants next cycle. Tonight, we gettin’ dem aliens.

 

[BorderlineQueen]

Listen, neuroticism is what defines us as a group of people who want to help others as much as we can. Fear is what drives us to alleviate others sufferings. I really don't know where your comment comes from.. Don't we all want to find the truth??? I could easily do a chart for people who scored between 510 and 513 if there were enough data.

I'm not sure if you knowing what that term actually means. Neuroticism used to mean an individual affected by a mental,emotional, condition that causes one to react drastically and irrationally. Now neuroticism is on the big five personality type test. Someone who is neurotic is at high risk for eating disorders, GAD,Social phobia and depression. So neuroticism does not define physicians. If someone is very neurotic they will not be able to handle the high stress of medicine.

 

[FISTMCLARGEHUGE]

After being on SDN this is exactly what this thread feels like.

 

[Goro]

is this thread another walt or cpm thread

Sure smells of the latter.