Could you expand on your thoughts? Are you saying you wouldn't secure 6%?
I personally don't think we'll see rates that high without being in a huge crisis.
Never Has So Few Owned So Much
Sorry and sure. However, the part you omitted which is relevant to me was 30 years (over 5-10 years, 6% might be better than the best returns honestly for the risk profile). Over a 30 year time horizon, no, I choose to spend instead. My reasoning is this, over the course of a lifetime, we experience at least one or two hyperinflationary events who wipe out savers. Ever stop to think why no one wants to go before 1985 in terms of investment gains? That's because everyone got wiped out at the end of the Ford administration and dying in Carter's. Saving is fine, there's nothing morally wrong with it, but from a financial perspective, most people including this board tend to plan with currency as a static measure, not a dynamic one. This leads to problems. For instance, if you had actually won in the 1950s and 1960s expansion to the numbers the FatFire (so $80k passive in present tense) people recommend, you would have been wiped out around 1979-1982 with the inflation rapidly outpacing your savings and dividend returns unless you were in the miraculous 3% whose portfolios did not collapse during that time from inflation or recession. And that's before the Reagan recession in his late term. There were only three or four types (not mutually exclusive) of rich who survived that incident keeping the same standard of living:
1. Working rich - Those who already worked even if their assets could support them passively as they could wait out the storms using their salaries without having to get out of assets.
2. Scrooges - Those who weren't in the market in the first place (so people who had gilt insurance or something to that effect as a pensioning system with COLA).
3. Capitalists - Those whose assets were tied in their own business and could not escape, so they went full speed ahead (and even then, most of this class fell during Reagan's term)
There's quite a bit of good portfolio theory about the business cycle, speculation, and the cycle of real estate just being beyond most people's apparent time horizon for people to remember and thus get burned. The damning one for me was one of my colleagues at the U doing a real estate study on who owned property at the most expensive areas in town, tracking down every single household and descendant, and then seeing what happened. The idea of old rich, where wealth is preserved from generation to generation, only happens in the superwealthy, and for most, the families grow and decline in equal measure, unless they are of certain backgrounds that prioritize intergenerational wealth (which I am from a household that is that way). For the rest of us including my own household, there is pretty much no way that my household would be able to be recession proof as the means that our household gains income is through services, and services is something that can be curtailed at any given time pending budget. Service is not food and it is not goods that have time horizons in that respect.
My wife and I were in the same modern finance classes together, so we do understand what the idea of early retirement means, and what eventually happens to almost all of them in terms of losing it all when they could have been productive instead. Think Fire is a new concept, try reading Cannadine's The Decline and Fall of the British Aristocracy. Even better, consider Spengler's The Decline of the West. History is cyclical, and the ones who manage to survive know that its not about prospering or winning, it's about making it to the next cycle. Although we have enough assets that if we stopped working immediately today, we could technically live off our assets in FatFire without even changing anything (no sale, no financial tricks, no loss of consumption), but we keep working because in these cycles of antisaving, you want to be part of the system that is kept than be someone that can be victimized easily. (As well, because we feel that no one saves for retirement, the democracy we live in will find some way to take from those who save due to the tyranny of the majority against the saving minority, but that's part of the government we signed up for). We work because we want to, but also as insurance against days where not being like everyone else is going to matter even more.
In the end, it's never been about saving money for me, it's about living well within my means. Just because we have major assets doesn't change our consumption behavior, and honestly, we don't even care if the money gets confiscated. My parents and grandparents instilled that in me walking away from a place where they had real assets, but the political and religious sentiments were extremely hostile to my ethnic group. I own money, money and possessions shall never own me nor determine my behavior, that's what having real money is all about. I'm not even in the game for keeps anymore, which is worth far more to me than any gain I could have.
So, 6% in the future 30 years isn't good enough. Getting a living wage that satisfies my needs and wants is good enough, and who knows whether the rate to do that would be -6%, 6%, 60%, or the Venezuelan 60 billion percent, I just want my fair share, but I don't think that the opportunity cost is worth it for 30 years, and I actually don't think the banks have it right either.