It will definitely be something you will be required to explain during the application process and in interviews. It may hurt. But with sufficient evidence attesting to how you've matured/grown/gotten your act together since this incident, I think many schools will be willing to chalk it up as a stupid mistake.
On the other hand it wasn't just a one time thing. Drinking too much and getting into trouble once is one thing, but you don't just go from alter boy to having an illegal ID in one dumb night. It is easy to imagine how older, conservative admission committee members might interpret that as evidence of a disrespectful, irresponsible lifestyle.
So again, you'd better have some impressive, character-demonstrating experiences by the time you apply. I'm not trying to sound harsh or judgmental--I'm sure you are a great guy/gal. I'm just trying to think from an ADCOM member's perspective to help you understand how important it is for you to make sure they know that mistake is not representative of you as a person.
But at least its not academic dishonesty... that really IS the kiss of death.