From those currently in the field, what are your opinions about the future of Radiology? I know no one can see the future; I'm just looking for opinions from people who have a better perspective. As an M3 thinking about Radar, should I be concerned about job prospects when I finish residency? Thanks.
To summarize, the main issues that will affect the future of radiology are:
-Government reimbursement cuts (up to 40% to outpatient radiology starting 2007)
-Self referral: cardiology and neurology are referring patients to their own imaging centers
-Turf wars: with cardiologists (cardiac CT/MRI, carotid stents), GI (virtual colonoscopy), vascular surgery (interventional vascular procedures), neurology/neurosurgery (neuro-interventional procedures). Clinicians appear to have an advantage because they have control over the patients
-Rise of radiologist assistants: probably not an immediate threat but in 20-30 years it may become a problem
-Advancing technology: engineers are already designing computer programs and electronic diagnostic tools (such as "computer assisted diagnosis" or so called the CAD) to interpret slides. With the current rapid rate of technology advancement, computer may be able to do prelim read in a decade or two. Radiologists will still have to provide the final reads, but the number of radiologists needed in the job market will be less in the future.
-Threat of outsourcing: This may not happen due to liability issues
The bottom line is, do radiology only if you are passionate about the field. If you do radiology just because of the money and lifestyle you are seeing now, you may be very unhappy in the future.