Future of radiology

[Johnjonny21]

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Just wondering if anyone could provide some insight on the future of radiology in the next 10-20 yrs.
-will computers be able to read certain imaging better than radiologists? or at least provide an initial read and sometimes avoid having to even have a radiologist read. for example, for ECGs. very few ECGs done in the hospital are read by cardiologists. most just read by a computer (admittedly not extraordinarily well) and ER physician. maybe could computers read x-rays to tell you at least "normal x-ray" or left lower lobe pneumonia?

-what about teleradiology/outsourcing to India issues?

 

[Kitra101]

Sky is falling. Go into the restaurant business since it is safer than medicine will ever be.

 

[salamander8]

First, no one really can see 10 years out. In 1992 it was conventional wisdom radiology was a dying field and residencies cut their slots. So it's good to approach predictions with humility.

That said, your specific worries about radiology's future seem misguided, and the real current threats to radiology aren't mentioned.

1. Outsourcing to India: this myth has legs because of xenophobia. The real doctors radiologist have to worry about are Americans who are non radiologists who buy their own machines and then refer to themselves. Even though the radiologist provides the best service it's hard to compete when your referring docs have a financial interest in not refering patients to you. Look up Stark Law exception on imaging self referal for more info. People in India aren't a threat because it's tough to get malpractice insurance for someone who isn't recognized as a doctor in the u.s.

2. Artificial intelligence- computers will be able to triage patients and recommend treatments many years before they will be trusted to be a primary radiology reader. Computers are used as adjunts in blob recognition ( breast masses and lung nodules) for which they are helpful, particularly for non experienced readers. Fort the short and intermediate term AI should assist, but not replace radiology. CT's are not like chess; it's an art as much as science, and the identical appearance in one place can mean different things depending on context, location, comparison images, and cross imaging correlation.

3. Healthcare reform: imaging is on the chopping block. Congress would love to save on imaging and many colleagues resent radiologists, not withstanding the fact that or objective work output (rvu) which ranks #3-4, making us very productive, despite vacations.

 

[PrussianBlue1]

First, no one really can see 10 years out. In 1992 it was conventional wisdom radiology was a dying field and residencies cut their slots. So it's good to approach predictions with humility.

That said, your specific worries about radiology's future seem misguided, and the real current threats to radiology aren't mentioned.

1. Outsourcing to India: this myth has legs because of xenophobia. The real doctors radiologist have to worry about are Americans who are non radiologists who buy their own machines and then refer to themselves. Even though the radiologist provides the best service it's hard to compete when your referring docs have a financial interest in not refering patients to you. Look up Stark Law exception on imaging self referal for more info. People in India aren't a threat because it's tough to get malpractice insurance for someone who isn't recognized as a doctor in the u.s.

2. Artificial intelligence- computers will be able to triage patients and recommend treatments many years before they will be trusted to be a primary radiology reader. Computers are used as adjunts in blob recognition ( breast masses and lung nodules) for which they are helpful, particularly for non experienced readers. Fort the short and intermediate term AI should assist, but not replace radiology. CT's are not like chess; it's an art as much as science, and the identical appearance in one place can mean different things depending on context, location, comparison images, and cross imaging correlation.

3. Healthcare reform: imaging is on the chopping block. Congress would love to save on imaging and many colleagues resent radiologists, not withstanding the fact that or objective work output (rvu) which ranks #3-4, making us very productive, despite vacations.

"not withstanding the fact that or objective work output (rvu) which ranks #3-4, making us very productive, despite vacations." What do you mean by this? What are the other top 3?