Future of the medical profession

[thrat]

What do you guys expect will happen in health care in the future decades?
For example, in 10-15-20 years, when the most baby boomers will be old and retired? Will there be more earning for the doctors?

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[MEG@COOL]

Nothing much will happen.

 

[thrat]

Do you mean there will be no changes?

 

[Pinkertinkle]

Do you mean there will be no changes?

Don't take megacool's input too seriously.

 

[stoic]

Do you mean there will be no changes?

no, there will be changes. reimbursement will continue to fall and so you'll have to see 40 patients a day (instead of 30 or 35) to keep the same income level.

 

[USCTex]

no, there will be changes. reimbursement will continue to fall and so you'll have to see 40 patients a day (instead of 30 or 35) to keep the same income level.

Or you could all move into the military or academia...hooray!

 

[Dr. Donkey]

"They" will wait until the attrition rate of doctors leaving for managerial positions at Taco Bell gets over 66%, then the remaining doctors will strike, then once the apocolyptic stench of bodies piling up gets to be too much for the average citizen to bare, doctors will get a 10% pay increase and be happy.

 

[Fermata]

Salaries will continue to fall.

However, the job security will continue to be unmatched.

 

[mshheaddoc]

I actually believe the opposite. I think there won't be much change overall ... but that is just me Yes there will be reform ... but docs have ahold of too many politicians to have complete revamp of laws/reimbursement. Especially with the free market. Free market isn't going anywhere ...

 

[flash]

no such thing as too many, not enough...we have to fight for our interests, nothing wrong with that.

 

[Aristotle]

I also think that there will be little change. But shouldn't the salaries rise because there is more demand for the services of a doctor?

 

[Fermata]

I also think that there will be little change. But shouldn't the salaries rise because there is more demand for the services of a doctor?

A large part of the current situation is due from the backlash of the 1980's.

 

[Hallm_7]

I really doubt salaries will continue to fall. This year medicare payments increased after the medicare reform bill was passed. Also, there will be a fix to the malpractice insurance emergency........because there has to be. There are too many states losing too many OB/Gyns, Neurosurgeons, and other specialists for something not to happen. The public will always support doctors over trial lawyers when given the choice. For proof of this look into the series of events in Nevada over the last 2 or 3 years.

 

[cfdavid]

Salaries will continue to fall.

However, the job security will continue to be unmatched.

I agree with this. The trend will be towards managed care, and this will trend towards a reduction in docs pay, and a limit on what a doc can do for their patients. Over the next 10 years, many people will be needing healthcare, so the job outlook will be very good. But, the financial strain on the system will increase since a fewer number of people in the workplace will be contributing to healthcare funding, at a time where demand will be great. Also, the "burden" on companies will increase, but this is likely to be shared by workers or such companies.

However, I've read that under managed care docs would possibly work less hours due to salary agreements with large provider organizations.

Regardless, being a doc will be a great profession, and everything is relative.

There's just not a whole lot of "fat" in any industry anymore, and so wages will start to balance out. That is, the upper extremes are likely to come down.

 

[medstyle]

reinbursement goes up every year, it will continue to go up. Private practice docs will make more money, as usual. Internal meds will not earn as must as they used to (i mean proportionally, they will too increase in salary), but everone else will be fine. Just look at any salary trend website.

HMO's can only work if doctors work for them. Doctors only will work for them if they get enough money to make it worthwhile. Some peolpe think 300k for a 9-5 is good, especially if they have a family. Others would rather work 60 a week and take home twice as much.

There can't be a paydrop, as there is NEVER a paydrop for any profession. Especially one where the demand is sooo high and services unmet by any other group. Thats the bottom line.

I think the new generation of doctors will fix whatever is going wrong, because we won't stand for it. We're not all commies.

 

[cfdavid]

I really doubt salaries will continue to fall. This year medicare payments increased after the medicare reform bill was passed. Also, there will be a fix to the malpractice insurance emergency........because there has to be. There are too many states losing too many OB/Gyns, Neurosurgeons, and other specialists for something not to happen. The public will always support doctors over trial lawyers when given the choice. For proof of this look into the series of events in Nevada over the last 2 or 3 years.

Damn, something needs to really be done about malpractice. I was is Mississippi for work recentley, and I was talking to an EM doc in the lobby of a hotel. I asked him what he didn't like about the profession, and malpractice insurance was #1 on his list. I didn't know this, but not all hospitals pick up the tab for this. He said it was his personal responsibility, but we didn't get into too many details. He said he had friends in other specialties, and gave me a range from 80K to 300K per year in insurance alone.

This is ridiculous! We have a serious lawyer problem/legal system problem in this country. Wether you're Republican or not, at least they are trying to do something about it. John Edwards made millions off of such lawsuits. But, not knowing much about his cases, I can't say if they were frivalous or not. Some are justified, but we need limits on what juries can reward. It's too emotional, and lawyers play on this stuff.

By the way, the EM doc said he loved what he did, regardless of some of the problems. He said he couldn't imagine doing anything else. He said the personal rewards were tremendous.

 

[medstyle]

Damn, something needs to really be done about malpractice. I was is Mississippi for work recentley, and I was talking to an EM doc in the lobby of a hotel. I asked him what he didn't like about the profession, and malpractice insurance was #1 on his list. I didn't know this, but not all hospitals pick up the tab for this. He said it was his personal responsibility, but we didn't get into too many details. He said he had friends in other specialties, and gave me a range from 80K to 300K per year in insurance alone.

This is ridiculous! We have a serious lawyer problem/legal system problem in this country. Wether you're Republican or not, at least they are trying to do something about it. John Edwards made millions off of such lawsuits. But, not knowing much about his cases, I can't say if they were frivalous or not. Some are justified, but we need limits on what juries can reward. It's too emotional, and lawyers play on this stuff.

By the way, the EM doc said he loved what he did, regardless of some of the problems. He said he couldn't imagine doing anything else. He said the personal rewards were tremendous.

maybe docs will start charging patients more? i think that is the only solution until some greater regulation comes into play, like making malpractice awards be given by a jury of medical professionals, not ordinary people.

 

[Supernova]

maybe docs will start charging patients more? i think that is the only solution until some greater regulation comes into play, like making malpractice awards be given by a jury of medical professionals, not ordinary people.

Are doctors allow to set their own price? I thought cost of all the procedures are determined by the accountants and lawyers at the insurance companies.

 

[cfdavid]

maybe docs will start charging patients more? i think that is the only solution until some greater regulation comes into play, like making malpractice awards be given by a jury of medical professionals, not ordinary people.

Actually, that's not a bad idea. Though, I doubt it would happen in reality.
The bottom line is that their are some crappy docs that do end up hurting people. BUT, there are SO many frivalous lawsuits out there that it makes me sick. There really does need to be more scrutiny, and in cases where the issue is very grey (like not really being able to prove injury, or injuries that can be faked etc.) there should be limits on awards.

 

[cfdavid]

Wow, do any of you guys actually have any direct experience with the current environment? If not, why comment in a definative manner? The facts are these:

For the most part, medical procedures are too expensive to be afforded by the largest percentage of the population. This has brought about the proliferation of managed care. These insurance companies contract networks of doctors who will discount each of the specific procedures by an amount designated in the "fee schedule." These fee schedules vary from insurance company to company, but all are based on Medicare payments (I.e. they will pay 125% of Medicare and so on). A physician will enter into this agreement in order to increase the potential client base. Very few specialties can afford to practice on a patient pay basis.

As for the comment that reimbursements go up every year, this is not true. Physician's may bring in more money in a year, but it is a factor of how he/she is structuring their specific practice. The per procedure payment is going down each year, but at different rates for different insurance companies, each with a unique fee schedule.

The future of medicine will be determined by the decision of whether access to such care is a privilege or a right. More physicians will be forced to take salaried positions that structure their interactions with patients with specific limits on things such as time spent in an appointment.

If anyone with direct experience in this area has another perspective, I would love to hear it (it would be refreshing)!

Adam

Adam, I agree. See my first post. However, I'm not yet a doc, nor are many on the Pre-Allo forum. But, regardless, things are constantly changing, and though these are the trends, much depends on the political climate.