Typing on my phone, so excuse any typos.
I agree that most students with low GPAs do not have the "stuff" to what it takes to get into med school. Which is why I don't recommend SMPs to individuals who don't have at least a year of 3.7+ work coupled with a solid MCAT. People need to really ask themselves if their low GPA reflects their ability or not. However there are a few misconceptions that I would like to clear up:
1.) 15% or so of the med students get A's. The SMP students at GT are curved against the med school average, not against each other. Theoretically, everyone could get an A. Of course, this doesn't actually happen.
2.) According to SMP graduates and GT themselves, the great majority of their graduates end up at a U.S. allopathic med schools. Only a very small handful end up at SGU, and that is almost exclusively because they did poorly and/or have a low MCAT score. Puerto Rican schools have a fine reputation, I have no problem if GT includes them in their overall percentage. A portion of that percentage does include DO schools yes, but it is in the minority. Again, that is usually do to lowish MCAT scores or obsessions with same-year acceptances. One could assume that these people are lying, but I think that is groundless. I have said before that nowadays students could achieve success in an SMP and still end up at a DO school, and you have to make peace with this risk. However you're right that many programs of a lesser calibre massively inflate their numbers with DO and Caribbean schools.
3.) In my opinion, Tulane's grades are not inflated. Their reputation speaks for itself. Their program is small and very competitive, so you need to show some academic strength to even have a shot here. True the program has gone through some changes of late, and who knows what the future holds for them. But, as of now, it's still a legit program.
4.) Speaking of inflated... That table needs to die in a fire. Those numbers are inflated by "lucky" states, individuals who have successfully completed postbaccs, legacies, low GPA URMs, veterans, etc. A 3.4/32 from Ca certainly does not have a 50-50 shot at MD.
Cheers
Most of what you said is fair I'll just chime in with some stuff.
1) Theoretically sure anybody could get an A in an SMP program that is true. But the numbers for grade distributions I got were from someone I know who just finished up an SMP program and I've seen similar numbers cited on here. They go along with what you said that Georgetown's SMP average is 3.3-3.5 The point is most people do not have the 3.7 SMP GPA which is what people talk about as the target for MD schools.
2) SGU is very different from an Osteopathic medical school. Hell, someone could flunk an SMP program and still probably get an acceptance in the Caribbean or some foreign country if they really look hard enough. Again, the number cited is that 85% are accepted to medical schools in general within 2 years of completing the program. Whether that is allopathic or not it does not state and really if there is any official stat on allopathic numbers themselves for G-town SMP graduates I have yet to see it. I've heard conflicting things on here and from those I know personally who've done the G'town SMP as to how many of the participants actually end up at an MD school, I'll just leave it at that. But like I said, most people don't get the 3.7+ at Georgetown's SMP which is often cited on here and cited in general as what is what you should be aiming for. The MCAT does matter but the average for a program like Georgetown is 32. The majority of people at those programs have at least a 30 caliber score which is high enough to not keep someone out by itself.
3) A 3.8 average GPA in that specific program is what the OP was citing and what I was talking about in the "pharmacology" program. What you are talking about as having a built in reputation is a different Tulane program. You are saying the same thing I am that this specific Tulane program the OP is talking about is not as reputable and that can be partly seen by that crazy high GPA average. The other Tulane SMP is fine and reputable.
Couple things I'll say about the table.
The table is inflated to an extent. More importantly it is a very rough guide that often gets interpreted too strictly. But there are a couple things I would say in response to your claims.
1) The table I posted is for whites and doesn't include any URMs. White's from the past year with stats in the 3.4-3.6 and 30-32 MCAT range had a 50-50 chance of MD acceptance. URMs with those stats would have close to a 90% of acceptance by that table.
2) The California point is valid about it not being quite as high for someone from there. Although it's not nearly to the point that it makes the table irrelevant for someone from CA.
3) Legacies that actually matter and really make a difference aren't nearly as frequent as people make it them out to be, that's often simply thrown out there but rarely is applicable. At their absolute best, legacies the overwhelming majority of the time lead to a polite interview and permanent spot on the waitlist as Goro has said many times.
4) As for the "lucky state theory: let's list the most commonly cited lucky states. Florida, Texas, Ohio and perhaps LA and MO. Maybe you can add one or two more, that's not really relevant. Ohio had 1744 applicants last year. LA had 800. Missouri had 668. Texas had 3870. Florida had 2956. Add that up and that gets you around 10,000. Total number of applications last year was 50,000. That's 20%. So yes, the lucky states are a factor but that's not nearly a significant enough proportion to say that if you aren't from one of those states the table isn't really relevant to you.
5) The idea of completing a post-bac is fine and I recommended to the OP above a post-bac is probably a smarter course of action for raising your GPA unless it really is below a 3.1-3.2 type area. If the OP does well in a DIY or formal post-bacc then they'll qualify as one of those people whom the table is inflated for. Most people who get into med schools with under 3.5 type GPAs at the very least have upward trends and that's often through completing some post-bac work.
All in all we agree on alot of the same things. But I do think a) SMPs are very risky and not right for nearly as many people as is often suggested b) the table is more relevant than some say and I've often seen those like gyngyn cite it and I do think it gives a half decent ball park estimate. Bottom line of all of this is if a strong year in post-bacc is enough to bring the OP's GPA up to around a 3.5 I think that is the smartest option. That upward trend combined with a 31-32 caliber MCAT definitely can make someone competitive for an MD school regardless of CA residency.
