Gold

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

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Anybody as concerned as I am about gold taking off? As a fairly heavy gold owner I can tell you I don't particularly like it. That's not a contradictory statement. I see gold as an insurance policy against the inevitable dollar devaluation, not as an investment. Who likes cashing in bigly on insurance policies? Life? Auto? Home? Medical? No thank you. I'd rather just pay into the policy and not collect on bad events.

Is this the big one with the beginning of the end for the dollar Ponzi? I don't know and was hoping it will be delayed a while. But let's face it, Endless borrowing and then printing your way out of the terminal debt spiral is fool's math. I'm definitely concerned. Anyone else?

 

[AdmiralChz]

First thought.

 

[caligas]

Anybody as concerned as I am about gold taking off? As a fairly heavy gold owner I can tell you I don't particularly like it. That's not a contradictory statement. I see gold as an insurance policy against the inevitable dollar devaluation, not as an investment. Who likes cashing in bigly on insurance policies? Life? Auto? Home? Medical? No thank you. I'd rather just pay into the policy and not collect on bad events.

Is this the big one with the beginning of the end for the dollar Ponzi? I don't know and was hoping it will be delayed a while. But let's face it, Endless borrowing and then printing your way out of the terminal debt spiral is fool's math. I'm definitely concerned. Anyone else?

In what form or forms do you own? What percentage of your portfolio?

Always been interested but currently my only gold is on my finger.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

In what form or forms do you own? What percentage of your portfolio?

Always been interested but currently my only gold is on my finger.

I don't like saying exact figures. Not a huge percentage but triple digit ounces. On the fence about buying more after the runup, but don't feel adding insurance will hurt. If it doesn't go up it means the dollar is still functioning, and that's not a bad thing. I keep it in coins in the safe deposit box. The premium and market spread when buying is highway robbery, but it's a one time hit as I don't plan on ever selling for a very very long time.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

If you look at the 10 year chart you'll see a previous high in 2011 of about 1900 and strong resistance at the 1800 level (which is now support). On the 2 month chart you notice when gold broke through that 1800 resistance it shot for the moon going up about 15% in less than a month. This clearly was not going to continue at that pace, doubling roughly every 4 months, over 100,000 in 2 years, and over a million in 3 years (Lord I hope not. It would mean the world has about ended).

Quite often a major breakout will come back and "test the breakout," as you are seeing recently coming almost all the way back to test that historic 1900 level. This pullback does not surprise me or concern me at all. It may even pull back to that significant 1800 where the breakout really began. A sustained fall below 1800 would surprise me. There is nothing fundamentally or technically that says anything other than gold has a long term path much higher.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

If you look at the 10 year chart you'll see a previous high in 2011 of about 1900 and strong resistance at the 1800 level (which is now support). On the 2 month chart you notice when gold broke through that 1800 resistance it shot for the moon going up about 15% in less than a month. This clearly was not going to continue at that pace, doubling roughly every 4 months, over 100,000 in 2 years, and over a million in 3 years (Lord I hope not. It would mean the world has about ended).

Quite often a major breakout will come back and "test the breakout," as you are seeing recently coming almost all the way back to test that historic 1900 level. This pullback does not surprise me or concern me at all. It may even pull back to that significant 1800 where the breakout really began. A sustained fall below 1800 would surprise me. There is nothing fundamentally or technically that says anything other than gold has a long term path much higher.

Like clockwork, here we are all the way back "testing the breakout" 1800 level. That is a huge historic resistance/support level going back to 2011/2012 as well as earlier this year.

I'm a buyer today for sure. Nothing has changed with our debt spiral, and while I'll never say it's not possible, it just seems very unlikely to me to not hold this very key support/resistance level more than just a brief dip below if any.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Gold reflects the massive increase in spending, huge expanding national debt and the devaluation of paper money (fiat currency). I actually think $1800 is low for gold vs Bitcoin. I have a position in Gold and Crypto with no plans on selling. If you had over 100 million U.S. Dollars how would you diversify that portfolio? I'd own Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks as well as paper money. Gold and Bitcoin reflects the desire to be diversified away from fiat currency.

 

[ZzzPlz]

Gold reflects the massive increase in spending, huge expanding national debt and the devaluation of paper money (fiat currency). I actually think $1800 is low for gold vs Bitcoin. I have a position in Gold and Crypto with no plans on selling. If you had over 100 million U.S. Dollars how would you diversify that portfolio? I'd own Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks as well as paper money. Gold and Bitcoin reflects the desire to be diversified away from fiat currency.

Don’t forget to buy several large ranches with that money

 

[Intubate]

Gold reflects the massive increase in spending, huge expanding national debt and the devaluation of paper money (fiat currency). I actually think $1800 is low for gold vs Bitcoin. I have a position in Gold and Crypto with no plans on selling. If you had over 100 million U.S. Dollars how would you diversify that portfolio? I'd own Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks as well as paper money. Gold and Bitcoin reflects the desire to be diversified away from fiat currency.

Do you still think bitcoin is still a "scam, bubble," or do you believe it to be a reliable store of value with solid monetary policy? Or something else?

 

[IlDestriero]

I’ve contemplated moving 15-20% of my portfolio into gold several times in the last decade as a hedge. Still haven’t. And if I did, back when gold was ~1100, which was the closest I’ve come, I’d probably be pretty happy with myself, though the stock market just hit 30k with a surging pandemic, massive small business closures, unemployment, and unfathomable debt, so I don’t know what to make of that.
What should I do? Probably put >50% in gold. And I could keep it in my secret vault like Scrooge McDuck.

 

[Mad Jack]

View attachment 315013
First thought.

Beat me to it

 

[NITRAS]

You ever wonder how many of the people buying gold because they don’t want the fiat curency realize that gold is a fiat currency.

Its a shiny metal with some conductive properties. . . . No intrinsic value.

 

[deleted126335]

I’ve contemplated moving 15-20% of my portfolio into gold several times in the last decade as a hedge. Still haven’t. And if I did, back when gold was ~1100, which was the closest I’ve come, I’d probably be pretty happy with myself, though the stock market just hit 30k with a surging pandemic, massive small business closures, unemployment, and unfathomable debt, so I don’t know what to make of that.
What should I do? Probably put >50% in gold. And I could keep it in my secret vault like Scrooge McDuck.
View attachment 323812

A reasonable way to use Gold in a portfolio.

Wild About Harry

 

[BLADEMDA]

You ever wonder how many of the people buying gold because they don’t want the fiat curency realize that gold is a fiat currency.

Its a shiny metal with some conductive properties. . . . No intrinsic value.

Gold has been used as currency for thousands of years. Rome would literally kill for Gold. We used to have a gold standard. I agree that the shiny metal has no value other than that assigned to it. But, you can’t just waive your hand and print a trillion in gold. Or 5 trillion? How about 27 trillion?

I recommend bitcoin and gold occupy no more than 10 percent of a portfolio. They are only a small portion of mine.

Instead, use your fiat currency to buy good companies selling at fair prices.

 

[Direct Laryngoscopy]

Gold has been used as currency for thousands of years. Rome would literally kill for Gold. We used to have a gold standard. I agree that the shiny metal has no value other than that assigned to it. But, you can’t just waive your hand and print a trillion in gold. Or 5 trillion? How about 27 trillion?

I recommend bitcoin and gold occupy no more than 10 percent of a portfolio. They are only a small portion of mine.

Instead, use your fiat currency to buy good companies selling at fair prices.

You having Bitcoin in your portfolio is quite surprising. Never thought you would ever consider it. kudos to looking at an alternative and speculation.

 

[Airway]

You ever wonder how many of the people buying gold because they don’t want the fiat curency realize that gold is a fiat currency.

Its a shiny metal with some conductive properties. . . . No intrinsic value.

I don't think that's exactly true.

 

[dhb]

triple digit ounces

Baller

 

[deleted171991]

I don't think that's exactly true.

The moment people stop buying gold in a recession (see March 2020), its value plummets exactly like stocks. It's a bad hedge for inflation, and historically a bad investment.

Cryptocurrencies are textbook Ponzi schemes (and one could argue that an overvalued stock market is heading there, too). Good luck when they crash.

Best investment? Open your own recession-proof business that produces rapidly-growing passive income.

 

[pgg]

I don't think that's exactly true. View attachment 324466

Did you not see the "exclusive of bullion" subtitle to the graph you posted? 😉

Google tells me that in Q2 2020 gold production went to

technology - 67 metric tons
investment - 583
jewelry - 252
central banks - 115

And if you consider that for much of the world, particularly India, gold jewelry is primarily savings and secondarily decoration that rounds out to

technology - 67
bullion - 950

For a cool 93.4% of gold production going into monetary instruments. No, gold is mainly valuable because people agree it is valuable, not because of its industrial uses. Contrast with silver, where about 2/3rds of annual production is used for industrial purposes.

 

[ProwlerturnGas]

Alcohol tobacco ammunition food will be what’s valuable in the within- my- lifetime upcoming civil (world)war/apocalypse event/ skynet scenario. Maybe I am too pessimistic?

 

[pgg]

Alcohol tobacco ammunition food will be what’s valuable in the within- my- lifetime upcoming civil (world)war/apocalypse event/ skynet scenario. Maybe I am too pessimistic?

You're too pessimistic. .

I can't wrap my head around how this civil war everyone's talking about is going to kick off. Who's going to shoot who first and how's that going to evolve into teams and sides and battle lines?

We're going to start wearing red and blue shirts to tell each other apart, then brawl in the street? Will the Trump wing of the red side wear orange?

I don't have any idea how 9/10ths of my neighbors vote. How will I know who to shoot?

Are the national guard and the military just going to watch?

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Alcohol tobacco ammunition food will be what’s valuable in the within- my- lifetime upcoming civil (world)war/apocalypse event/ skynet scenario. Maybe I am too pessimistic?

In principal I definitely agree with you, but who knows how the specifics play out. Look how fast the country has degenerated into crazy radical thinking in just a few years... while we are doing relatively great! Add the inevitable dollar collapse, or a real nasty pandemic that actually is dangerous to the young and healthy, or a major conflict with a real power, say China, and yeah lots and lots of very real badness at some point.

I've always said usable "stuff" like food and guns are the best inflation hedge, but I'm just way too American and complacent and not dooms-day enough to build out that infrastructure to securely store it. Gold is the lazy man's way to store value, though like many point out I don't call it ideal either. But know this, at its absolute worst those shiny coins can only be equally worthless as paper cash, and most likely will actually store value.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

The moment people stop buying gold in a recession (see March 2020), its value plummets exactly like stocks. It's a bad hedge for inflation, and historically a bad investment.

Cryptocurrencies are textbook Ponzi schemes (and one could argue that an overvalued stock market is heading there, too). Good luck when they crash.

Best investment? Open your own recession-proof business that produces rapidly-growing passive income.

I very much agree with the last 2 paragraphs. How do i give a 2/3 thumbs up?

Regarding paragraph one, I do agree it's not an investment, but long term, and particularly very long term, I certainly think it's been an inflation hedge, at least up till this time in history. Like any asset there will be insignificant blips along the way such as the brief March/20 hiccup, but I do know we've never seen anybody taking a wheelbarrow full of gold to buy a loaf of bread, and I don't forsee that ever happening in our lifetimes.