You touched on the uncertainty of lifespan which is important, but you neglected the uncertainty of the job market/taxes.
Say it’s 2035. What’s the job market like? $ per hour might be down 20-25%. Medicare for all could have passed and not only is income down 35%, but taxes are 50% above 250k to help pay for it. If you knew your post-tax pay per hour would be 40% less in 2035, would you save more today? Probably. You can overprepare and have it be for naught, but you can also underprepare and be screwed too.
We have a ballooning deficit, sky-high debt, rising Medicare enrollment and literally no politician is thinking “I better make sure anesthesiologists make enough money so I get re-elected next cycle”. The sky isn’t falling, but the reason to save extra isn’t to have $ at 70, it’s to stop taking call at 50.