i usually evaluate matchlists like this:
-dont just look at the big competitive specialties like optho, derm, ent, etc. look also at internal medicine. alot of top students are going to go this route. i actually think the internal medicine programs are a great indication. you want to look for hospitals like hopkins, mass gen, brig, ucsf, stanford, columbia, etc. look for the big names but also the locations (many california spots are competitive because of location even though they may not be a big name).
-if you're looking at hospitals, dont be too impressed with the pathology, anesth, pediatrics, psychiatry, etc spots because those aren't very competitive. However, keep in mind that top students could be going into those, but you just cant tell from looking at the list.
-what i think is a good idea is to count up the number of competitive matches at the school. for example, i would consider a top 10 int med match competitive, and i would also consider a harvard peds or chop peds program a top match among some others. but i usually leave out all the pathology/anesth/psychiatry in my count. i also count any of the really competitive ones like ent/opth/orto/derm as long as the hospital is a university program. then i add those up and divide by the number of students and that way i can get an indication of where the top half or so students match. I mean, who cares where the top 1/5 or 1/4 match because i'm not sure i can be in that group, but i think realistically i can be top 1/2.
by doing this, i've found that jhu and harvard are the top 2. and then the penn's, duke's, ucsf's, stanford's, yales, washu's come in next. etc etc.
i dunno if this helps.