How do schools estimate the number of acceptance to offer?

[FCMike11]

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Has a school ever extended itself further than the # of seats available in their class? I know they have to take into account the number of people who don't matriculate despite an offer for admission...but how is that determined?

Not really a crucial question, just had me curious.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using SDN mobile

 

[To be MD]

Has a school ever extended itself further than the # of seats available in their class? I know they have to take into account the number of people who don't matriculate despite an offer for admission...but how is that determined?

Not really a crucial question, just had me curious.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using SDN mobile

Most schools plan on less than 100% of accepted students actually matriculating. Unless you're Harvard, if you, for example, send out 100 acceptance letters originally for your 90 seats, you'll be A-OK.

They get an idea of what % of acceptance letters will result in matriculation over many years of doing this process.

It's the same thing that undergraduate schools do--just on a smaller scale.

 

[Link2]

I think they would just use the statistics of previous years and use some models to anticipate how much change there would be every year. They might assume that 70% of students who were accepted and have statistics below the median for matriculants will accept the offer. I think they do occasionally have to admit more students than they have spaces for (I know that it certainly happens for some undergrad programs), like http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/scholarship-offer-for-deferred-admission-thoughts.1204119/

 

[nwts]

Has a school ever extended itself further than the # of seats available in their class? I know they have to take into account the number of people who don't matriculate despite an offer for admission...but how is that determined?

Not really a crucial question, just had me curious.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using SDN mobile

Yes, they have extended themselves further than the number of seats available in their class, and it's a huge problem when they do. As a recent thread has shown, sometimes they have to resort to offering huge scholarships in an attempt to persuade some people to defer their admission. In some cases, they just have to have a class that has more members than it's supposed to, but they will get in huge trouble with the licensing board for medical schools if they make a habit of having classes larger than they are supposed to.

 

[aldol16]

They have matriculation data from decades of experience (unless they recently opened, in which case they would have to estimate based on similar schools) and know, on average, how many accepted applicants matriculate. If they've been around for a long time, they probably have that number down to within very small error. So based on that, they can decide how many acceptances to send out because they know how many students will matriculate within a very small error. I doubt an error of <5 students either way makes a huge difference. In any case, they can offer incentives to defer.

It's the same thing that undergraduate schools do--just on a smaller scale.

On a much larger scale at elite universities. When you have a large class size, a 5% error becomes significant if you simply don't have the dorm space for that many students. But it's also more flexible because there are very few regulations on class size at the undergraduate level.

 

[The Knife & Gun Club]

Practically speaking this is why admission is rolling. They start sending out acceptances oct 15th and can build up a number of accepted students and wait listed students and estimate what % will actually attend given experience.

In February the multiple acceptance report comes out, which tells your accepting schools where else you have been accepted. Then they can see who of their accepted students will probably attend vs who they may lose and who they should try to sway with scholarship money, etc.

Then on April 30th all accepted students must only hold one acceptance, so schools can see how many people have committed. The difference between committed students and seats is filled off the waitlist during the summer.

This system allows multiple safeguards to prevent schools from over accepting, but can still fail on rare occasions

 

[aztlannation]

Has a school ever extended itself further than the # of seats available in their class? I know they have to take into account the number of people who don't matriculate despite an offer for admission...but how is that determined?

Not really a crucial question, just had me curious.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using SDN mobile

UWSMPH had this issue this year. They offered students a $25K scholarship to defer a year OR do a masters program tuition-free at UW + a $5K scholarship upon completion.

 

[Goro]

At my school, we received ~6000 apps
Interview 500
Accept ~250-300
Seat ~100.

How Admissions deans know the expect numbers is pure black magic.

They do make mistakes and there was a thread recently from someone who was "overbooked" at a good school. They gave him a scholarship to defer matriculation by 1 year.

In situations like this, the Admission dean will be quietly terminated.

Has a school ever extended itself further than the # of seats available in their class? I know they have to take into account the number of people who don't matriculate despite an offer for admission...but how is that determined?

Not really a crucial question, just had me curious.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using SDN mobile

 

[iforget2]

I remember Texas A&M a few years back accepted too many students and heavily encouraged students to defer a year.

 

[JessebenBenjamin]

At my school, we received ~6000 apps
Interview 500
Accept ~250-300
Seat ~100.

How Admissions deans know the expect numbers is pure black magic.

They do make mistakes and there was a thread recently from someone who was "overbooked" at a good school. They gave him a scholarship to defer matriculation by 1 year.

In situations like this, the Admission dean will be quietly terminated.

Does the Admissions Dean have complete power on how many people get in? (The rest of the committee doesn't have a say?)

 

[Goro]

The number of accepts to shoot for is pre-determined by the Admissions dean based upon historical norms. The Adcom determines WHO gets in, not the final number. Keep in mind that schools will start rationing seats when they start filling up, and as such, Adcoms get more selective.

Does the Admissions Dean have complete power on how many people get in? (The rest of the committee doesn't have a say?)

 

[JessebenBenjamin]

The number of accepts to shoot for is pre-determined by the Admissions dean based upon historical norms. The Adcom determines WHO gets in, not the final number. Keep in mind that schools will start rationing seats when they start filling up, and as such, Adcoms get more selective.

Interesting. So during second look, while the Admissions Dean was trying to convince us to come to his school he was secretly hoping half of us wouldn't?

 

[LizzyM]

Interesting. So during second look, while the Admissions Dean was trying to convince us to come to his school he was secretly hoping half of us wouldn't?

Precisely!

 

[gyngyn]

Does the Admissions Dean have complete power on how many people get in? (The rest of the committee doesn't have a say?)

The Admissions Dean is executing the class size decision that has been made by the Dean and the LCME.
The committee has little to do with it.

 

[LizzyM]

Does the Admissions Dean have complete power on how many people get in? (The rest of the committee doesn't have a say?)

The adcom gets to say who gets an offer but not how many offers will be made. That decision (how many offers to make to yield a class of the perfect size) rests with the Dean of Admissions. (And it is the Dean's head that is chopped off if the prediction is screwed up.)

 

[saltypug]

The adcom gets to say who gets an offer but not how many offers will be made. That decision (how many offers to make to yield a class of the perfect size) rests with the Dean of Admissions. (And it is the Dean's head that is chopped off if the prediction is screwed up.)

If a dean screws up once, is that it for them?

 

[Goro]

Admissions deans have gotten fired over stuff like this.

If a dean screws up once, is that it for them?