How long will anesthesia draw physicians from Pain?

[bedrock]

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Questions for the anesthesia folks here. I know the anesthesia market is hot right now and many gas/pain docs have gone back to gas.

That said, anesthesia has gone through this before. If there is that kind of demand, that means that to meet that demand more docs (and mid levels) will be trained. Doctor jay just posted about his local network starting a CRNA program instead of more anesthesia residency spots.

1- How long do you expect the anesthesia market to be hot, with much higher pay and much more vacation than pain?
2-How far do you think the pendulum will swing the other way, once more anesthesia residency slots are created and more CRNA schools are created?
Seem like anesthesia cratered hard after the last boom.

 

[mdo1738]

While it is very hard to accurately predict how long a field will stay hot, I struggle to see anesthesia cooling off anytime in the next 10 years. I don’t think anesthesia reimbursements going down would significantly affect things, as my understanding is that many groups are fairly significantly subsidized anyways by what the surgeons bring in. Can’t do the surgery without the anesthesia.

Patients are living longer and longer, and there are more and more procedures utilizing anesthesia. Number of cases is high, and the market will be struggling for a while to replace all the older docs who retired at much higher rates with COVID. Take whatever number retired in the last 5 years and probably multiply by 1.5 to figure out how many you need to replace, as us younger docs aren’t going to work near what the old workhorses put up with.

Put all that and more together, I just don’t see anesthesia cooling off majorly for a long time.

 

[mille125]

While it is very hard to accurately predict how long a field will stay hot, I struggle to see anesthesia cooling off anytime in the next 10 years. I don’t think anesthesia reimbursements going down would significantly affect things, as my understanding is that many groups are fairly significantly subsidized anyways by what the surgeons bring in. Can’t do the surgery without the anesthesia.

Patients are living longer and longer, and there are more and more procedures utilizing anesthesia. Number of cases is high, and the market will be struggling for a while to replace all the older docs who retired at much higher rates with COVID. Take whatever number retired in the last 5 years and probably multiply by 1.5 to figure out how many you need to replace, as us younger docs aren’t going to work near what the old workhorses put up with.

Put all that and more together, I just don’t see anesthesia cooling off majorly for a long time.

But if the hospital get affected by the BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL as they will, the question becomes will the subsidizes go away.

 

[Agast]

Insurance reimbursement for anesthesia services didn’t suddenly go up. The amount of profit being redistributed amongst employees went up. That was to attract more candidates during a relative shortage caused by COVID.

I imagine when the boomers die off, the oversupply of anesthetists will be more obvious

 

[agolden1]

https://www.beckersasc.com/anesthesia/the-anesthesia-workforce-shortage-demystified/

Working in anesthesia as I do right now, most are anticipating another 10-15 years before we hit the nadir.

I’m work with a group affiliated with an anesthesia residency. Everyone is acutely aware of the problems which plagued EM/rad onc and are trying to avoid aggressive expansion of the residency program.

Whether this is successful or not at the national level remains to be seen.

I personally wonder if the shortage will continue to persist as well. Many new grads coming out taking locums work, not working nights, weekends, holidays, or starting at reduced FTE right off the bat which doesn’t help things.

I’m in my fourth year of practice. 1/2 of the people who have started within 3 years on either side of me are 0.9-0.8 FTE or day doc.

 

[bedrock]

https://www.beckersasc.com/anesthesia/the-anesthesia-workforce-shortage-demystified/

Working in anesthesia as I do right now, most are anticipating another 10-15 years before we hit the nadir.

I’m work with a group affiliated with an anesthesia residency. Everyone is acutely aware of the problems which plagued EM/rad onc and are trying to avoid aggressive expansion of the residency program.

Whether this is successful or not at the national level remains to be seen.

I personally wonder if the shortage will continue to persist as well. Many new grads coming out taking locums work, not working nights, weekends, holidays, or starting at reduced FTE right off the bat which doesn’t help things.

I’m in my fourth year of practice. 1/2 of the people who have started within 3 years on either side of me are 0.9-0.8 FTE or day doc.

Hope it works out for you.
The biggest thing you can’t control as I mentioned in my original post, is a major increase in CRNA programs.