How many acceptances does the average school give out?

[Noble Aneurysm]

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For a hypothetical situation, take a school that has a first year class of 150 matriculated students. If they interview 500 students, how many of them would you expect to be accepted?

Do they accept a significant amount over 150 students because they expect some students with multiple acceptances to go to other schools, or do they accept only slightly above 150 expecting nearly all students to take the acceptance? Just curious here. Thanks everyone.


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[djtallahassee]

I have heard they offer ~2-3 offers/seat available. Commenting because I would love to hear the wisdom of an adcom on this offer number.

 

[DBC03]

I believe this varies tremendously by school. Mayo tends to give our very few acceptances because apparently very few people turn down a spot there (and they have very few seats, so that's even more amazing). I heard on a podcast today that Johns Hopkins accepted 271 applicants one year - and they have a class of 118. So that's about 2.5/seat. Some schools are more desirable and choose applicants carefully, so they have a high number of acceptances. Others may have fewer. I think someone had a chart of the top 10/20 and how many students accepted their offers.

 

[Noble Aneurysm]

I think it could give an applicant more confidence going into an interview knowing that a much larger number of acceptances will be given than # of matriculated. It would also highlight the importance of surviving the initial cut and getting an interview. If we go strictly on things that matter to an applicant, 90% of these forums would be useless too....


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[efle]

Depends on the school's class size and yield. Using the top 20 as an example group, the yields range from low 30%s to around 70%, so one place might be accepting 3 people to fill a single seat while another might only admit 1.5 per seat.

 

[Mad Jack]

Depends on the school, but I'm going to echo what others are saying here- 2-3 acceptances per seat.

 

[Goro]

For a hypothetical situation, take a school that has a first year class of 150 matriculated students. If they interview 500 students, how many of them would you expect to be accepted?

Do they accept a significant amount over 150 students because they expect some students with multiple acceptances to go to other schools, or do they accept only slightly above 150 expecting nearly all students to take the acceptance? Just curious here. Thanks everyone.


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At my school, it's

5-6000 apps
~500 IIs
accept ~250-300
seat ~100

My take is that med schools accept ~3x the number of seats they have. How they mange not to overbook at Orientation time is one of the Dark Arts.

 

[mw18]

I believe this varies tremendously by school. Mayo tends to give our very few acceptances because apparently very few people turn down a spot there (and they have very few seats, so that's even more amazing). I heard on a podcast today that Johns Hopkins accepted 271 applicants one year - and they have a class of 118. So that's about 2.5/seat. Some schools are more desirable and choose applicants carefully, so they have a high number of acceptances. Others may have fewer. I think someone had a chart of the top 10/20 and how many students accepted their offers.

If that podcast says 118 specifically, then I wouldn't get carried away trusting anything it says (Class size at orientation is 120 - so not far off, but it's not 118 either. I suppose it could have been 118 at some time in the past though? Not sure how historical this podcast was getting. Or they could have had two people deferred from the year before.). Mayo having such a small class makes every person accepted over their 40ish class size a risk of overbooking, whereas they will likely not suffer from being unable to get someone off their waitlist to fill the spots people turn down.

Edits: In parentheses.

 

[djtallahassee]

At my school, it's

5-6000 apps
~500 IIs
accept ~250-300
seat ~100

My take is that med schools accept ~3x the number of seats they have. How they mange not to overbook at Orientation time is one of the Dark Arts.

Question. When the MSAR says apps received, is that only primary apps or is that apps with secondaries turned in? How do DO schools define that?

 

[efle]

MSAR counts primaries.

 

[DBC03]

If that podcast says 118 specifically, then I wouldn't get carried away trusting anything it says (Class size at orientation is 120 - so not far off, but it's not 118 either. I suppose it could have been 118 at some time in the past though? Not sure how historical this podcast was getting. Or they could have had two people deferred from the year before.). Mayo having such a small class makes every person accepted over their 40ish class size a risk of overbooking, whereas they will likely not suffer from being unable to get someone off their waitlist to fill the spots people turn down.

Edits: In parentheses.

Sorry - Dean of admissions said 271 (+/-) acceptances in podcast. MSAR said 118. Also, the podcast was from the 2016 application cycle, so it's a year old. MSAR number is from this year. It's nice to know that number might be off. I don't know if they've updated it lately.

 

[djtallahassee]

MSAR counts primaries.

So all we need is number of secondaries completed to link everything and start estimating chances lol. It's harder for the low yield schools, but some state schools you get rough numbers of like 50% secondaries get completed II, 75% of those offer...etc.

 

[DBC03]

So all we need is number of secondaries completed to link everything and start estimating chances lol. It's harder for the low yield schools, but some state schools you get rough numbers of like 50% secondaries get completed II, 75% of those offer...etc.

It probably helps to know the types of people filling out secondaries. Are these people with sub-500 MCATs and 3.1 GPAs? Or are we looking at 4000 solid applicants?

Actually, I would love to work for AMCAS for just one year and do a study on all of this. It really sounds fascinating.

 

[djtallahassee]

It probably helps to know the types of people filling out secondaries. Are these people with sub-500 MCATs and 3.1 GPAs? Or are we looking at 4000 solid applicants?

Actually, I would love to work for AMCAS for just one year and do a study on all of this. It really sounds fascinating.

It is interesting and helps me explain to my parents and friends that getting in is not so simple.

We do have data from 2018 US news that gives us the offer yield for many schools. From there its a few couple of columns in excel to approach our overall answer. I would guess that maybe 85% fill out a secondary by trying (i.e taking time on the essays) and that maybe only 80% of those are qualified based on stats. This is just my engineering intuition/speculation though.

 

[DBC03]

It is interesting and helps me explain to my parents and friends that getting in is not so simple.

We do have data from 2018 US news that gives us the offer yield for many schools. From there its a few couple of columns in excel to approach our overall answer. I would guess that maybe 85% fill out a secondary by trying (i.e taking time on the essays) and that maybe only 80% of those are qualified based on stats. This is just my engineering intuition/speculation though.

I imagine it also differs widely for specific schools. I imagine many students throw a hail mary at Harvard and are willing to waste $140 just to see if they'll get in, but they might not do the same for a different medical school that is rated almost just as highly but might not have the same name recognition. And I can tell you from conversations on campus with many pre-meds that are sending applications out - many don't think there's any point in sending them until after September and most have stats that are well below par. They'll be sending applications to all the state schools, so I can see how state schools have a unique applicant pool compared to, say, University of Chicago.

 

[djtallahassee]

I imagine it also differs widely for specific schools. I imagine many students throw a hail mary at Harvard and are willing to waste $140 just to see if they'll get in, but they might not do the same for a different medical school that is rated almost just as highly but might not have the same name recognition. And I can tell you from conversations on campus with many pre-meds that are sending applications out - many don't think there's any point in sending them until after September and most have stats that are well below par. They'll be sending applications to all the state schools, so I can see how state schools have a unique applicant pool compared to, say, University of Chicago.

Agreed, I'd throw a "Reachability factor" in there. I've got the urge to start this sheet but currently buried in secondaries. I do think the factor may not be as exaggerated since there is $$ and time involved, unless they just haphazardly fill them in someone else is paying.

@Goro Any idea % secondaries complete your school gets % of those are qualified applicants?

 

[efle]

The % that completes secondary depends a lot on the school. Monster secondaries like Duke or Vandy vs not having any required essays like UCSF or WashU will impact this a lot.

Far less than 80% have competitive numbers. The MSAR from a year ago used to show the applicant box-and-whiskers in addition to the acceptee data. For most places only 25-50% had competitive numbers.

 

[mw18]

Sorry - Dean of admissions said 271 (+/-) acceptances in podcast. MSAR said 118. Also, the podcast was from the 2016 application cycle, so it's a year old. MSAR number is from this year. It's nice to know that number might be off. I don't know if they've updated it lately.

So there is absolutely 120 in the classes, but there were probably deferments that caused the discrepancy in the MSAR number.

 

[DBC03]

The % that completes secondary depends a lot on the school. Monster secondaries like Duke or Vandy vs not having any required essays like UCSF or WashU will impact this a lot.

Far less than 80% have competitive numbers. The MSAR from a year ago used to show the applicant box-and-whiskers in addition to the acceptee data. For most places only 25-50% had competitive numbers.

I'd love to see how many people actually finish Miami's secondary. I'm applying for a joint program and there are over 15 500-word essays.

 

[djtallahassee]

The % that completes secondary depends a lot on the school. Monster secondaries like Duke or Vandy vs not having any required essays like UCSF or WashU will impact this a lot.

Far less than 80% have competitive numbers. The MSAR from a year ago used to show the applicant box-and-whiskers in addition to the acceptee data. For most places only 25-50% had competitive numbers.

It's fascinating stuff. I am currently trying to figure out my chances with one school and how quick I want the secondary turnaround time to be using MSAR, secondaries sent rates, etc.... I've seen your a numbers guy @efle , did you ever try building any spreadsheets using all this data?

 

[mwsapphire]

The % that completes secondary depends a lot on the school. Monster secondaries like Duke or Vandy vs not having any required essays like UCSF or WashU will impact this a lot.

Far less than 80% have competitive numbers. The MSAR from a year ago used to show the applicant box-and-whiskers in addition to the acceptee data. For most places only 25-50% had competitive numbers.

What do you define as competitive? We generally advice to apply if you're between the 10th and 90th. Are you saying competitive is closest to the median? Or if you're 25th for MCAT but 75th for GPA? Or do you mean not competitive would be applying if you're below the 10th for stats?
I'm legit curious, not trying to challenge you.

 

[efle]

It's fascinating stuff. I am currently trying to figure out my chances with one school and how quick I want the secondary turnaround time to be using MSAR, secondaries sent rates, etc.... I've seen your a numbers guy @efle , did you ever try building any spreadsheets using all this data?

Yes, helped me answer various things I got curious about, such as what the yields are like among the top 20:

 

[efle]

Secondary turnaround time does not matter nearly as much as people seem to think. It's a myth that they watch how long it takes you and judge your interest from that. All that really matters is your overall complete date being as early as possible so the interview slots are still plentiful.

 

[DBC03]

Yes, helped me answer various things I got curious about, such as what the yields are like among the top 20:

How is Vandy's yield rate so low? I feel like the fact that they play somewhat "hard to get" would make applicants more likely to want to go there if accepted? On the other hand, maybe people don't love the idea of Nashville? I'd also love to see what kinds of scholarships some of these places give out. Harvard and Stanford only give out financial aid, but Vandy gives out scholarships, so I think that would further help to protect yield. This is fascinating.

I'm actually really bummed that I can't apply to WashU - but it looks like they probably don't hand out that many acceptances, anyway.

Where did you get this data?

 

[efle]

What do you define as competitive? We generally advice to apply if you're between the 10th and 90th. Are you saying competitive is closest to the median? Or if you're 25th for MCAT but 75th for GPA? Or do you mean not competitive would be applying if you're below the 10th for stats?
I'm legit curious, not trying to challenge you.

In the most egregious cases, less than 25% of applicants were above the admitted 10th percentile. That is, there were schools with 10th percentiles at ~34 for which only 10-25% of the applicant pool had a 515+. They were literally drawing 90% of their class from the top 10-25% of apps.

Most cases weren't quite that bad, though. It was typically more like 75% of applicants had below-median scores and 50% were way below median (like bottom quartile and lower).

I don't remember if it was gyngyn or LizzyM or another adcom but they've said a few times something along the same lines - up to half of apps can be binned right away, the numbers are just too low.

 

[mwsapphire]

How is Vandy's yield rate so low? I feel like the fact that they play somewhat "hard to get" would make applicants more likely to want to go there if accepted? On the other hand, maybe people don't love the idea of Nashville? I'd also love to see what kinds of scholarships some of these places give out. Harvard and Stanford only give out financial aid, but Vandy gives out scholarships, so I think that would further help to protect yield. This is fascinating.

I'm actually really bummed that I can't apply to WashU - but it looks like they probably don't hand out that many acceptances, anyway.

Where did you get this data?

Why can't you apply WashU? They love strong MCAT scores, even if your GPA is a little on the lower end I'd apply there, seeing as you have a 520+. And all the other factors of your app.

 

[efle]

How is Vandy's yield rate so low? I feel like the fact that they play somewhat "hard to get" would make applicants more likely to want to go there if accepted? On the other hand, maybe people don't love the idea of Nashville? I'd also love to see what kinds of scholarships some of these places give out. Harvard and Stanford only give out financial aid, but Vandy gives out scholarships, so I think that would further help to protect yield. This is fascinating.

I'm actually really bummed that I can't apply to WashU - but it looks like they probably don't hand out that many acceptances, anyway.

Where did you get this data?

This is just a theory, though one I'm pretty certain is correct. I think Vandy intentionally overshoots and is trying to admit heavily from the same pool that gets into top 5s, accepting in exchange that their yield will be very low despite offering most admits a 50-75% scholarship.

 

[djtallahassee]

Secondary turnaround time does not matter nearly as much as people seem to think. It's a myth that they watch how long it takes you and judge your interest from that. All that really matters is your overall complete date being as early as possible so the interview slots are still plentiful.

Right, I don't care about the delta of time (unless there is a time limit), more that I get my app in early in a fashion that gives me the best chance.


I mean more along the lines of a spreadsheet where you calculate your overall chances of getting accepted based on stats alone (and maybe other factors pending your ECs and assuming good writing). It would use yield rate, # of secondaries, primaries, and the assumptions of qualified applicant. I actually never knew about the MSAR that showed the qualified applicant data.

 

[efle]

How is Vandy's yield rate so low? I feel like the fact that they play somewhat "hard to get" would make applicants more likely to want to go there if accepted? On the other hand, maybe people don't love the idea of Nashville? I'd also love to see what kinds of scholarships some of these places give out. Harvard and Stanford only give out financial aid, but Vandy gives out scholarships, so I think that would further help to protect yield. This is fascinating.

I'm actually really bummed that I can't apply to WashU - but it looks like they probably don't hand out that many acceptances, anyway.

Where did you get this data?

Data is from US News, behind the paywall, with some quick excel calculations.

WashU has a bit of a yield problem, no doubt because of their location, so they actually tend to admit more than peers. Unfortunately I do think a GPA below 3.5 would make it a waste of a secondary fee for ORM applicant.

 

[efle]

Right, I don't care about the delta of time (unless there is a time limit), more that I get my app in early in a fashion that gives me the best chance.


I mean more along the lines of a spreadsheet where you calculate your overall chances of getting accepted based on stats alone (and maybe other factors pending your ECs and assuming good writing). It would use yield rate, # of secondaries, primaries, and the assumptions of qualified applicant. I actually never knew about the MSAR that showed the qualified applicant data.

Are you a high MCAT (and GPA) applicant? If so I can tell you some names that are famous for primarily using that as their interview criteria

 

[Goro]

Agreed, I'd throw a "Reachability factor" in there. I've got the urge to start this sheet but currently buried in secondaries. I do think the factor may not be as exaggerated since there is $$ and time involved, unless they just haphazardly fill them in someone else is paying.

@Goro Any idea % secondaries complete your school gets % of those are qualified applicants?

Based upon what my wily old Admissions Dean tells me, plus what i see on SDN from other Adcom members, I estimate that half of the apps are from people who have no business going anywhere near a med school, except as a standardized patients. The WAMC forum is lousy with threads posted by people who say things like "and I also applied to Harvard for ****s and giggles" OR "...and I also applied to Stanford because, who knows?" OR "...and I also applied to Stanford. YOLO".

There are people who literally think that Harvad may have open seats because not enough people applied there!

And then you have the fools who have 1000s of hours of research experience, but are so lazy they apply to the HBCs because all they ever see is their lower GPAs and MCAT stats, OR who simply make up a list based upon the stats of the lists published by USN&WR OR who at least have MSAR, but only look at stats for schools, and never once look at IS/OOS info, and so apply to schools like U SD, or ORH&S or UNM, which barely ever admit OOS applicants!

Perversely, I see this same phenomenon in Faculty job searches. About 50% of the applicants for, say, an Anatomy position are from people with degrees and training Drosophila genetics, immunology, pharmacology, neuroscience or some other non-Anatomy subject. Their mindset is "I could learn how to teach that".

 

[djtallahassee]

Are you a high MCAT (and GPA) applicant? If so I can tell you some names that are famous for primarily using that as their interview criteria

Nah, low GPA and medium MCAT with a potential URM factor lol. I'm applying broadly MD and DO with lot of low yield schools. My spreadsheet would have a bunch of weird unknown factors.

 

[Lawpy]

I mean more along the lines of a spreadsheet where you calculate your overall chances of getting accepted based on stats alone (and maybe other factors pending your ECs and assuming good writing). It would use yield rate, # of secondaries, primaries, and the assumptions of qualified applicant. I actually never knew about the MSAR that showed the qualified applicant data.

SDN Success Rate Charts - 2017 Edition

 

[mwsapphire]

In the most egregious cases, less than 25% of applicants were above the admitted 10th percentile. That is, there were schools with 10th percentiles at ~34 for which only 10-25% of the applicant pool had a 515+. They were literally drawing 90% of their class from the top 10-25% of apps.

Most cases weren't quite that bad, though. It was typically more like 75% of applicants had below-median scores and 50% were way below median (like bottom quartile and lower).

I don't remember if it was gyngyn or LizzyM or another adcom but they've said a few times something along the same lines - up to half of apps can be binned right away, the numbers are just too low.

Well, LizzyM is an AdCom at a "number *****" school. MCAT scores are simple, but the GPA ranges at most schools are so large, they likely scrutinize your transcript, look at where you went Ugrad, what your major was, before directly tossing it in the bin. Also, at most schools, strong EC's can offset a weaker MCAT or GPA, so I wouldn't say half of apps would be tossed for too low numbers at most schools ( in which case we shouldn't get our hopes too high for our chances at a school, just b/c our stats are within range, you know). Also, some schools care more about GPA, some care more about MCAT, etc.
I wish there was more data on this....

 

[Highdrogen]

How can we identify which schools care more about GPA and which schools care more about MCAT?

 

[Lawpy]

How can we identify which schools care more about GPA and which schools care more about MCAT?

One way to estimate is to use the national median stats (3.7 GPA and 31 MCAT). The national median LizzyM score is a 68, so % GPA component is 37/68 = 54.4% and % MCAT component is 31/68 = 45.6%. Now go to the MSAR, find median accepted GPA and MCAT scores for each school in your list, calculate median accepted LizzyM score, and determine % GPA and % MCAT components. If % GPA > 54.4%, GPA matters more than MCAT. Otherwise, MCAT matters more.

 

[star field]

Are you a high MCAT (and GPA) applicant? If so I can tell you some names that are famous for primarily using that as their interview criteria

As a 3.9 GPA, 520 MCATer over here, I wouldn't mind knowing those schools.

 

[Goro]

I think it could give an applicant more confidence going into an interview knowing that a much larger number of acceptances will be given than # of matriculated. It would also highlight the importance of surviving the initial cut and getting an interview. If we go strictly on things that matter to an applicant, 90% of these forums would be useless too....


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The trouble with this logic is that accepts are 100% on the interviewee.

 

[DBC03]

Why can't you apply WashU? They love strong MCAT scores, even if your GPA is a little on the lower end I'd apply there, seeing as you have a 520+. And all the other factors of your app.

We're limiting my applications to cities where my husband can transfer. There are no offices within two hours of St. Louis 🙁

 

[Lawpy]

The trouble with this logic is that accepts are 100% on the interviewee.

I thought everything is factored in and evaluated after the interview. So applicants can get waitlisted or even rejected despite a stellar interview because their application still had concerns in an overall adcom review (but the reviewers thought they were minor enough to give interview invites).

 

[Goro]

I thought everything is factored in and evaluated after the interview. So applicants can get waitlisted or even rejected despite a stellar interview because their application still had concerns in an overall adcom review (but the reviewers thought they were minor enough to give interview invites).

Flip it the other way around. If one is a bad interviewee, nothing on earth will get them an accept, except Uncle Fosdick's seven figure donation check.

 

[DBC03]

As a 3.9 GPA, 520 MCATer over here, I wouldn't mind knowing those schools.

I actually want to know as well so I can avoid those schools.

Seeing as I can't even get a secondary from Vandy, I'm wondering if I should worry about filling out secondaries for any schools with even lower yields...

 

[DBC03]

@efle - have you read Moneyball? I am admittedly NOT a fan of baseball, but that book is fascinating. It is definitely a good read for anyone who enjoys numbers.

 

[star field]

WashU, UChicago, NYU?

I'd also guess Vandy, NW, maybe Johns Hopkins to some extent. Just speculation

 

[efle]

As a 3.9 GPA, 520 MCATer over here, I wouldn't mind knowing those schools.

I'd recommend putting the following group of top and mid tiers at the front end of your secondary queue, if they're places you'd consider going:

WashU, U Chicago, NYU, Vandy, Sinai, Case Western, Einstein, UVA, USC

Without even knowing anything about your ECs, I'd put money on you getting a few interviews from the above.

Also might want to see this post.

 

[efle]

@efle - have you read Moneyball? I am admittedly NOT a fan of baseball, but that book is fascinating. It is definitely a good read for anyone who enjoys numbers.

Enjoyed the movie, will check out the book when I can!

 

[DBC03]

Enjoyed the movie, will check out the book when I can!

Oddly, I have only read the book and have yet to see the movie. I think I'll add that to my list of things to watch during the two weeks I have off from school.