How many high stat applicants do NOT get into any T20s?

[KnightDoc]

700 Clinical, 450 non clinical, 1000 research. Most being over 3-4 year span. I’m ORM too. I’m really happy with how my cycle went though and am super happy that I will be attending a very well respected T50 for a cheaper cost. I’ve had 14 interview invites, 13 interviews accepted, and got into 6 of the schools. I might choose this T50 over the T20s if I get off the waitlist, I already am choosing it over the T25.

Yup! Since money is important to your decision, the odds are pretty high nothing is going to change. Prestige, opportunity and match-wise, there is no material difference between a T20 and T25. So, you not only need to receive a call, which is a distinct possibility but far from a certainty, but to ALSO receive a significant scholarship, which is a much more remote possibility after being called off a WL.

So, you have done very well, much better than most, and there really isn't a lot of room to improve considering you don't have financial "need" but have an excellent, lower cost option already in place. Congratulations!!!!

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[DZ2106]

What would you say are the top three or four reasons these high stat app ppl are reapplicants? ECs? LORs? Interview issue? Poor application PS/theme?

As someone who was a reapplicant who got into a T20 (thanks again, @KnightDoc!). The significant changes were, for me, a better PS, which did not talk about adversity at all but rather about my interests and what I wish to do in med school, a strong MD LOR, bringing my clinical hours from 300 to 1600, a more extensive and well rounded med school list, and a much stronger activities section and secondaries.

My experiences have shown me that good LORs, and a good story is king at top schools.

 

[proudofmykids]

I’m going to provide optimism for those of you with the high stats in this cycle with WLs at T20s.

Remember, 2400 people will matriculate at a T20…
Let’s assume for a moment, those very high stat 800 applicants have fantastic applications leading to getting Acceptances at more than a few T20 programs. You can see that each of those applicants has potential to free up ‘more than a few minus 1’ wait list spots. I realize that programs utilize their expected yield and offer Acceptances to up to about 3x more than will matriculate, but those 800 applicants theoretically are numerous enough to get all first past Acceptances at all T20s. Just sayin there is a ton of WL movement amongst the T20s, have hope if you are toward that 98 percentile without a T20 A yet.

 

[DZ2106]

I had 3.99 and 519 but didn’t get into any T20s. Got interviews from 4 T20s (two being T10s) but got waitlisted by two t20s and rejected by the two 10s. I got into one T25 though but don’t plan to go because it’s way too expensive and didn’t get any money from them. I still plan to go to a T50 though.

That's good odds for at least one good WL movement at least!

 

[proudofmykids]

One big correction to your assumptions -- the number of applicants is now over 60K, a far cry from 40K! 🙂

i forgot it was about 40% matriculation rate, so I should have used the 50k round number, but also forgot about the big increase from last year bringing it to 60k. It will be interesting to see how many actual applicants were active this cycle. I know Georgetown indicated national applications per school are down about 12% but not sure how correlated that will be to applicants.

 

[MooseAndMe99]

Yup! Since money is important to your decision, the odds are pretty high nothing is going to change. Prestige, opportunity and match-wise, there is no material difference between a T20 and T25. So, you not only need to receive a call, which is a distinct possibility but far from a certainty, but to ALSO receive a significant scholarship, which is a much more remote possibility after being called off a WL.

So, you have done very well, much better than most, and there really isn't a lot of room to improve considering you don't have financial "need" but have an excellent, lower cost option already in place. Congratulations!!!!

Thank you! I just thought the prestige difference between the T50 and T25 wasn’t that big because the T50 school I got into matched very competitively as well. It’s also within driving distance of my family and in an awesome city. I didn’t think it was worth paying >$100,000 just for a slightly better school and that too in a worse city super far from my family as I can probably still match into a good residency even with the T50 school.

 

[KnightDoc]

i forgot it was about 40% matriculation rate, so I should have used the 50k round number, but also forgot about the big increase from last year bringing it to 60k. It will be interesting to see how many actual applicants were active this cycle. I know Georgetown indicated national applications per school are down about 12% but not sure how correlated that will be to applicants.

Yup, but you cannot use hypothetical, theoretical numbers from a cycle still in progress. There were 62,437 applicants last cycle and 22,665 matriculants. Those are the latest and best numbers available. If they dropped 12%, then NEXT year we can talk about 55,000 applicants. Not 40K and not 50K! 🙂

 

[KnightDoc]

Thank you! I just thought the prestige difference between the T50 and T25 wasn’t that big because the T50 school I got into matched very competitively as well. It’s also within driving distance of my family and in an awesome city. I didn’t think it was worth paying >$100,000 just for a slightly better school and that too in a worse city super far from my family as I can probably still match into a good residency even with the T50 school.

You are absolutely correct, and made the decision most people would make if they did not have uber wealthy families who do not care about $100K, or be in a position to make all or most of that up with a need-based grant.

I know exactly what T25 school you are talking about, and they are losing a lot of really great applicants like you. If it keeps going, they are not going to be perceived as even "slightly better" for long. I asked a bunch of top schools how they were going to respond to NYU back when free tuition was first announced.

They almost all said they were not going to engage and were going to point their resources to those with need. And yet, Penn, Hopkins, Vandy, WashU, Northwestern, Chicago, etc. managed to find money, at least for some people, without demonstrated financial need. Schools like Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, etc. are so far holding the line.

If your T25 thinks it can hold the line, get you to drink the Kool-Aid, and borrow to give them the money they want, more power to them, but if Penn felt it had to compete I'm not sure why any school doesn't. Even Harvard. I get the mystique, but I wouldn't pay $100K+ more to go there over NYU. Most people wouldn't. The people NYU loses pretty much all receive equivalent money offers elsewhere.

I agree with you -- no T25 school is worth a significant premium over any T50 school. Period. If they keep losing the middle, and only attract the rich and the poor, it's not going to be such an awesome place in the future. For now, it's a great opportunity for people on the WL willing to pay.

I know they love LOIs. I wonder if they also screen for low SES, and don't take them off the WL? It would be beyond weird if they were willing to lose people like you who don't want to pay, only to replace you with other people who aren't going to pay! 😎

 

[fogo]

I’m at a bit of a crossroads. I have a full-tuition scholarship offer from a T50 school with a strong match list, in a city I’m familiar with and have family. I’m on a couple T20 waitlists, but really I’m wondering if I should be waiting at all. Only one has a desirable location on top of prestige that would sway me over (greater prestige but bad location would not sway me, especially when given the cost differential). But I feel that the grading system at the T50, which is not true P/F, would be much more stressful and I’m unsure if I should wait on this one school. Any thoughts?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Whats the harm in waiting to see if you get in?

 

[fogo]

Whats the harm in waiting to see if you get in?

I guess I’ll find out soon enough, but the CTE date is quite early and I want to get my lease done ASAP. I’m just tired of the uncertainty.

 

[MooseAndMe99]

You are absolutely correct, and made the decision most people would make if they did not have uber wealthy families who do not care about $100K, or be in a position to make all or most of that up with a need-based grant.

I know exactly what T25 school you are talking about, and they are losing a lot of really great applicants like you. If it keeps going, they are not going to be perceived as even "slightly better" for long. I asked a bunch of top schools how they were going to respond to NYU back when free tuition was first announced.

They almost all said they were not going to engage and were going to point their resources to those with need. And yet, Penn, Hopkins, Vandy, WashU, Northwestern, Chicago, etc. managed to find money, at least for some people, without demonstrated financial need. Schools like Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, etc. are so far holding the line.

If your T25 thinks it can hold the line, get you to drink the Kool-Aid, and borrow to give them the money they want, more power to them, but if Penn felt it had to compete I'm not sure why any school doesn't. Even Harvard. I get the mystique, but I wouldn't pay $100K+ more to go there over NYU. Most people wouldn't. The people NYU loses pretty much all receive equivalent money offers elsewhere.

I agree with you -- no T25 school is worth a significant premium over any T50 school. Period. If they keep losing the middle, and only attract the rich and the poor, it's not going to be such an awesome place in the future. For now, it's a great opportunity for people on the WL willing to pay.

I know they love LOIs. I wonder if they also screen for low SES, and don't take them off the WL? It would be beyond weird if they were willing to lose people like you who don't want to pay, only to replace you with other people who aren't going to pay! 😎

It just sucks because I really love the school but the price tag has me think is it worth it? I like the curriculum and the facilities a lot and really enjoyed visiting. I just don’t know if it’s worth so much more money because the school that is cheaper also matches really competitively. I just feel so bad giving up an offer for a T25 and sometimes feel that I’m going to lose out.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

It just sucks because I really love the school but the price tag has me think is it worth it? I like the curriculum and the facilities a lot and really enjoyed visiting. I just don’t know if it’s worth so much more money because the school that is cheaper also matches really competitively. I just feel so bad giving up an offer for a T25 and sometimes feel that I’m going to lose out.

You said it’s 100k difference? If you’re set on doing something competitive, I don’t think it would be that irresponsible to go to the higher ranked school. You would need to do a risk adjusted return (probably of matching x salary), but I’m guessing it wouldn’t be too much of a difference in terms of risk adjusted costs.

When you start getting into the 200K+ range, I think that is when you should avoid the higher school.

It also really depends on which schools you’re talking about. For example case western and USC are both around the same rank but the consensus seems to be that case is much stronger

 

[KnightDoc]

It just sucks because I really love the school but the price tag has me think is it worth it? I like the curriculum and the facilities a lot and really enjoyed visiting. I just don’t know if it’s worth so much more money because the school that is cheaper also matches really competitively. I just feel so bad giving up an offer for a T25 and sometimes feel that I’m going to lose out.

You are not the only one. It's what drives their significant WL movement, even though people universally love the school.

There is really no reason to feel bad, based on an arbitrary external ranking and what random strangers might think. It's your life, and your money. If you didn't care about cars, would you spend an extra $100K for a top of the line Mercedes over a basic Toyota, because others would be a lot more impressed with the Mercedes?

Same thing. You ARE missing out, but not on anything that is worth the cost differential. Your T50 will get you where you want to go, with an extra $100K+, plus interest, in your bank account. If a lot of other people didn't feel the same way, SDN wouldn't be filled with comments complaining about the price and scholarship policy, and there wouldn't be a bunch of posts in the next week expressing sorrow over giving up the A because the place is so groovy, but they can't justify the cost. Followed by a bunch of people without your other opportunity proclaiming their excitement after being called off the WL.

If FOMO is uncontrollably gripping you, just pay the extra money. You WILL be able to pay it back. You didn't want the Mercedes anyway! 😎

 

[LizzyM]

I guess I’ll find out soon enough, but the CTE date is quite early and I want to get my lease done ASAP. I’m just tired of the uncertainty.

When you can't take it any longer, get off the merry-go-round.

The waiting lists at the T20 are mostly a joke as the more offers than seats situation at most of the schools are a huge circle jerk (please excuse my crudeness) with the same relatively small pool of applicants holding multiple offers and when the music stops and everyone sits down, there is pretty much one seat for each applicant with no one left standing (very big problem for the dean of admissions if there are more matriculants than seats-- it does happen and the results are like an oversold airline flight but more costly for the med school) and almost no empty chairs to be filled by those on the waitlist.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

When you can't take it any longer, get off the merry-go-round.

The waiting lists at the T20 are mostly a joke as the more offers than seats situation at most of the schools are a huge circle jerk (please excuse my crudeness) with the same relatively small pool of applicants holding multiple offers and when the music stops and everyone sits down, there is pretty much one seat for each applicant with no one left standing (very big problem for the dean of admissions if there are more matriculants than seats-- it does happen and the results are like an oversold airline flight but more costly for the med school) and almost no empty chairs to be filled by those on the waitlist.

I believe that Michigan hasn’t accepted one person off the waitlist in like 3 years or something crazy. This highlights how static some of these lists can be

 

[MooseAndMe99]

You said it’s 100k difference? If you’re set on doing something competitive, I don’t think it would be that irresponsible to go to the higher ranked school. You would need to do a risk adjusted return (probably of matching x salary), but I’m guessing it wouldn’t be too much of a difference in terms of risk adjusted costs.

When you start getting into the 200K+ range, I think that is when you should avoid the higher school.

It also really depends on which schools you’re talking about. For example case western and USC are both around the same rank but the consensus seems to be that case is much stronger

Yeah that’s why I don’t know if it’s worth it, I feel it’ll help me match into a slightly better residency but in the end my salary would be around the same from going to either program.

 

[ujsc]

You are not the only one. It's what drives their significant WL movement, even though people universally love the school.

There is really no reason to feel bad, based on an arbitrary external ranking and what random strangers might think. It's your life, and your money. If you didn't care about cars, would you spend an extra $100K for a top of the line Mercedes over a basic Toyota, because others would be a lot more impressed with the Mercedes?

Same thing. You ARE missing out, but not on anything that is worth the cost differential. Your T50 will get you where you want to go, with an extra $100K+, plus interest, in your bank account. If a lot of other people didn't feel the same way, SDN wouldn't be filled with comments complaining about the price and scholarship policy, and there wouldn't be a bunch of posts in the next week expressing sorrow over giving up the A because the place is so groovy, but they can't justify the cost. Followed by a bunch of people without your other opportunity proclaiming their excitement after being called off the WL.

If FOMO is uncontrollably gripping you, just pay the extra money. You WILL be able to pay it back. You didn't want the Mercedes anyway! 😎

It won't be just 100k difference, it will be double that with interest.

 

[sean80439]

At the end of the day it doesn't matter. You have an extra 200k in debt? So what, you'll pay it off quick enough as it is unless you are some poor soul that likes pediatric neurology. The faster you get through school, through training, and are being paid as an attending the better off you'll be financially regardless of some extra money you paid for tuition. Nobody cares where you went to med school. The curriculum at the end of the day is largely the same content. Sure you might have more 'opportunities' for academic medicine, but unless your career trajectory is only academics, again who cares.

Premeds seem so concerned about the match before they even get into med school. Focus on the 25m target first.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

I’m at a bit of a crossroads. I have a full-tuition scholarship offer from a T50 school with a strong match list, in a city I’m familiar with and have family. I’m on a couple T20 waitlists, but really I’m wondering if I should be waiting at all. Only one has a desirable location on top of prestige that would sway me over (greater prestige but bad location would not sway me, especially when given the cost differential). But I feel that the grading system at the T50, which is not true P/F, would be much more stressful and I’m unsure if I should wait on this one school. Any thoughts?

Why do you think you received a full-tuition scholarship? Do you think they would offer the scholarship if they were not already confident you could do well?

 

[ujsc]

Why do you think you received a full-tuition scholarship? Do you think they would offer the scholarship if they were not already confident you could do well?

I don't think you have anything to lose going with the T50 school. You also have a scholarship. Be grateful and get on with your life. You won't be any better doctor with the other school.

 

[proudofmykids]

You are absolutely correct, and made the decision most people would make if they did not have uber wealthy families who do not care about $100K, or be in a position to make all or most of that up with a need-based grant.

I know exactly what T25 school you are talking about, and they are losing a lot of really great applicants like you. If it keeps going, they are not going to be perceived as even "slightly better" for long. I asked a bunch of top schools how they were going to respond to NYU back when free tuition was first announced.

They almost all said they were not going to engage and were going to point their resources to those with need. And yet, Penn, Hopkins, Vandy, WashU, Northwestern, Chicago, etc. managed to find money, at least for some people, without demonstrated financial need. Schools like Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, etc. are so far holding the line.

If your T25 thinks it can hold the line, get you to drink the Kool-Aid, and borrow to give them the money they want, more power to them, but if Penn felt it had to compete I'm not sure why any school doesn't. Even Harvard. I get the mystique, but I wouldn't pay $100K+ more to go there over NYU. Most people wouldn't. The people NYU loses pretty much all receive equivalent money offers elsewhere.

I agree with you -- no T25 school is worth a significant premium over any T50 school. Period. If they keep losing the middle, and only attract the rich and the poor, it's not going to be such an awesome place in the future. For now, it's a great opportunity for people on the WL willing to pay.

I know they love LOIs. I wonder if they also screen for low SES, and don't take them off the WL? It would be beyond weird if they were willing to lose people like you who don't want to pay, only to replace you with other people who aren't going to pay! 😎

FYI - Columbia does give merit scholarship.

 

[proudofmykids]

Yup, but you cannot use hypothetical, theoretical numbers from a cycle still in progress. There were 62,437 applicants last cycle and 22,665 matriculants. Those are the latest and best numbers available. If they dropped 12%, then NEXT year we can talk about 55,000 applicants. Not 40K and not 50K! 🙂

The point of my math or even the corrected math was that those percentages to calculate the number of people demonstrated far fewer than the total matriculants at all T20s, who theoretically could hold all the As offered by them leading to a large cascade of WL movement.

 

[KnightDoc]

FYI - Columbia does give merit scholarship.

I did not know that. I thought it was need-based only. Is this new? If so, another one bites the dust! 🙂

 

[KnightDoc]

The point of my math or even the corrected math was that those percentages to calculate the number of people demonstrated far fewer than the total matriculants at all T20s, who theoretically could hold all the As offered by them leading to a large cascade of WL movement.

Okay, but when your numbers are off by so much, it kind of dilutes the point. 2% of 22,000 is a not insignificant 440 on top of your original 800!

The fact that reviews are more holistic than ever, so top schools are not just looking for top stats, is probably the biggest reason some people at the top are unsuccessful, not whether the top 2% has 800 or 1250 members. But increasing your number by 50% absolutely does dilute your point.

In addition, plenty of people at the top choose schools other than T20 due to money, location, fit, feel whatever. Everyone isn't on SDN, worrying about BS artificial PD rankings pulled out of thin air from a statistically invalid popularity poll conducted by USNWR, and whether their odds of landing a pediatric oncology neurosurgery plastics residency will be enhanced by going to the #2.386 school instead of the #2.387 one.

 

[aldol16]

If you have only stats and nothing else, don't expect to be getting a ton of T20 interviews or acceptances. You really have to stand out and it's not just the numbers. You have to have something that interests them and something that you will bring to the table. They're building a class, not a bunch of robots.

 

[DZ2106]

You are absolutely correct, and made the decision most people would make if they did not have uber wealthy families who do not care about $100K, or be in a position to make all or most of that up with a need-based grant.

I know exactly what T25 school you are talking about, and they are losing a lot of really great applicants like you. If it keeps going, they are not going to be perceived as even "slightly better" for long. I asked a bunch of top schools how they were going to respond to NYU back when free tuition was first announced.

They almost all said they were not going to engage and were going to point their resources to those with need. And yet, Penn, Hopkins, Vandy, WashU, Northwestern, Chicago, etc. managed to find money, at least for some people, without demonstrated financial need. Schools like Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, etc. are so far holding the line.

If your T25 thinks it can hold the line, get you to drink the Kool-Aid, and borrow to give them the money they want, more power to them, but if Penn felt it had to compete I'm not sure why any school doesn't. Even Harvard. I get the mystique, but I wouldn't pay $100K+ more to go there over NYU. Most people wouldn't. The people NYU loses pretty much all receive equivalent money offers elsewhere.

I agree with you -- no T25 school is worth a significant premium over any T50 school. Period. If they keep losing the middle, and only attract the rich and the poor, it's not going to be such an awesome place in the future. For now, it's a great opportunity for people on the WL willing to pay.

I know they love LOIs. I wonder if they also screen for low SES, and don't take them off the WL? It would be beyond weird if they were willing to lose people like you who don't want to pay, only to replace you with other people who aren't going to pay! 😎

Tbf to Cornell and Columbia, they are VERY generous with need based aid and at least for Cornell, almost 20% of matriculants are disadvantaged. For me personally Cornell was my best AND cheapest option

Edit: and my family income is very solidly 6 figures