Hi, I was just wondering how many interviews a person would need until... statistically speaking they would be accepted to at least one. I know it depends on the quality of the schools applied, the quality of your application, and your personality, but just as an estimate 5? 10? or are you never really "safe"?
How many interviews do you need until you are "safe"
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What's any number divided by 0?
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ouch...
Who knows..I would like to say 8..
I think if you have a personality and get 8 interviews, you should get into one?
I'm praying on one interview and one acceptance...
Who knows..I would like to say 8..
I think if you have a personality and get 8 interviews, you should get into one?
I'm praying on one interview and one acceptance...
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If you're a truly horrible interviewer with no interest in medicine or helping people, you probably won't get in no matter how many interviews you get...
I'd say personally, I'd feel safe if I get 6-7 interviews.
Statistically, if hypothetically (in Bizarro World) every interview has a 47% chance of leading to an acceptance (someone did this calculation on SDN), then having 6 interviews would translate to a 99% chance of being accepted.
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I have 6 interviews right now, and I have attended 2, and I must admit I am feeling pretty good about it.
But do I feel "safe?" Not so sure about that. Put it this way - I have another 8 or so secondaries out there, and I am hoping for at least 2 or 3 more interviews - at that point, I think I would say I feel safe.
Prior to this cycle, my idea of "safe" was around 6 interviews, so it is ironic that now that I am there, I don't feel safe yet.
But do I feel "safe?" Not so sure about that. Put it this way - I have another 8 or so secondaries out there, and I am hoping for at least 2 or 3 more interviews - at that point, I think I would say I feel safe.
Prior to this cycle, my idea of "safe" was around 6 interviews, so it is ironic that now that I am there, I don't feel safe yet.
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Bingo. Once I have an acceptance, I'll stop worrying.
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hahaha n618ft
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The old SDN wisdom used to be 6 or 7 put you in a pretty good position, tho never really "safe."
Not sure that's true anymore. I went through the 07-08 cycle and I don't remember horror stories of people with multiple interviews not getting in anywhere. (I had 9 interviews, withdrew from one, and got 6 acceptances.)
But I browsed last cycle, and it seems that that was happening -- good stats, several interviews, no acceptances. Fair to say, it gets worse each year.
Good luck to all, except meltcher, or whatever.
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I had 4 interviews and no acceptances, and went through the 07-08 cycle.
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...Except that outcomes are correlated (i.e., if one school accepts you, it is far more likely others will have seen similar +s and, therefore, accept you as well), so this logic falls short. If someone knew the correlation coefficient, r, we could theoretically estimate that one's chances would be {1-[1-(# accepted/# interviewed)]^[(# interviews)^r]}x100% ...Anyone know the value of "r" (either average for all programs or between each set of individual programs)...?
So point is, we don't have the necessary information to make such a prediction.
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The premise was that every interview has a 47% chance of leading to an acceptance, which I clearly stated. It was a hypothetical calculation - I even said IN BIZARRO WORLD. Idiot.
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hahahaha
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Hey! I know a guy who has a like a million interviews and keeps starting threads about it...
Anyone know that guy.
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My host at USUHS told me he applied to 6 schools, interviewed at two, USUHS and his home school in Nebraska.
His stats were 3.5 gpa and MCAT 26,29, of course he was also a west point grad.
My big concern is with any school that isn't USUHS or my home school of U of MN, simply because they will be giving preference to in state applicants and most applicants there are applying to that school simply because they are competative there,(as am I) so you can get lost in the shuffle.
Of course the best odds to be safe are to apply early, go to every interview as soon as possible and keep going until you have an acceptance.
His stats were 3.5 gpa and MCAT 26,29, of course he was also a west point grad.
My big concern is with any school that isn't USUHS or my home school of U of MN, simply because they will be giving preference to in state applicants and most applicants there are applying to that school simply because they are competative there,(as am I) so you can get lost in the shuffle.
Of course the best odds to be safe are to apply early, go to every interview as soon as possible and keep going until you have an acceptance.
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[/sarcasm] So apparently you missed the point. Good job. And you like to name-call. Also real mature. Interviews may have some chance individually; however, each is not independent of the others. In "bizarro world" doesn't really make much sense. Personally, I live on a planet by the name of "Earth." You might have heard of it. If not, it's located toward the edge of the Milky Way Galaxy 93 million miles from a medium-sized single star we like to call "the sun." I've attached a map below to help you in finding the world many of us here call home:
[/sarcasm]
Seriously, though... you seem a bit defensive.
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depends how well u interview
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Last year this topic was dominated by one prominent SDNer with stellar stats who, until really late in the cycle, had no acceptances, and he started multiple threads and it could have looked like an epidemic of high stats people not getting in, but he ended up with at least 2 - Pitt and WashU as I recall - and he is at the latter now. SDN name is WashMe - look him up, a decent chap. However, even he admitted that he had not done a good job applying - he either failed to apply to some of his state schools, and/or he applied late to them or other schools, thus his app list was very top heavy. There is almost always an explanation that help to explain these tales of woe...
Otherwise, I don't think it is correct to say that the goal line has really moved in recent cycles and that it is happening with more frequency - I agree with all posters who say no one is truly safe until they get an acceptance - but I do think that some number of interviews provides as much safety in this process as one can get, and it appears to fall in that 6 to 9 range, and while there are always exceptions, I don't recall anyone with that many interviews last year getting completely shut out, but there were a couple of people with just 3 or 4 interviews who didn't get in anywhere.
Like I said, I have 6, and I don't feel safe, but I do feel very hopeful.
Final note: IIRC the majority of matriculants only get into one school, so it is a very thin line between success and failure for the majority of matriculants. And something like 60 percent of applicants get ZERO acceptances. Therefore, it shouldn't be hard to believe that that some highly qualified high stats applicants with a bunch of interviews occasionally fall through the cracks...but if you dig, there is usually a plausible explanation.
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I'm applying as an international who basically did all his schooling and lives in US. I have 6 interviews, but I feel so vulnerable and scared. I wouldnt feel safe no matter how many interviews you have, its all about the first acceptance.
Uhh... if every interview has a 47% chance of acceptance, the math works out to 1-(.53)^x= .99
Solving for x yields 7.25. This equation is trying to solve for the amount of interviews it takes before you have a 99% chance of being accepted to at least one school. You're subtracting the probability of being rejected by all x schools in my calculation. Since x= 7.25 and assuming a 47% acceptance rate on average (odd number to pick, in reality it's probably much lower), you'd need to interview at 8 schools (since one cannot interview at 7.25 schools) before you have a 99%+ chance of acceptance to at least one school.
Someone earlier made the point that there is a correlation in that good interviewers tend to get more acceptances, but this calculation assumes independence among schools. Some people only need one school to get in, some need more. This was an interesting calculation, though.
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Undefined! Ha.
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I know that personally, I won't feel safe until I have an acceptance.
I've still got about 8-9 months left I even begin applying to schools. The MCAT, junior year GPA, etc are all still variables for me. I'd rather fast-forward to where you are now, though!
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[/sarcasm] So apparently you missed the point. Good job. And you like to name-call. Also real mature. Interviews may have some chance individually; however, each is not independent of the others. In "bizarro world" doesn't really make much sense. Personally, I live on a planet by the name of "Earth." You might have heard of it. If not, it's located toward the edge of the Milky Way Galaxy 93 million miles from a medium-sized single star we like to call "the sun." I've attached a map below to help you in finding the world many of us here call home:
[/sarcasm]
Seriously, though... you seem a bit defensive.
Your point was that interview acceptances are correlated. Wow, what a genius you are! I had NO idea that good interviewers have a higher-than-47% chance of being accepted! Perhaps you should write up a paper on this and send this to the Journal of the Extremely Obvious.
By referring to bizarro world, I was telling people who have no idea how statistics work such as yourself to just accept that this is purely hypothetical (IF interviewing meant you had a 47% chance of getting accepted - obviously, this is not true in the real world because interview acceptances are correlated as you pointed out). Sorry I got frustrated though - just annoying when people say something I wrote is illogical when the premise is clearly stated.
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Oh, you're right. I must have done 0.47^x = 0.01 instead of 0.53^x=0.01. Anyway, it seems that 7 interviews would statistically translate to a 98.8% chance for the average interviewer, interviewing at average schools.
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i used to think once you get an interview unless you mess it up you have a good chance of getting in and now im not so sure with the less than 50% chance at most schools.. but i'd feel pretty good at >5 interviews
do you guys think post-interview stats matter much?!
do you guys think post-interview stats matter much?!
