How many interviews to comfortable match?

[Drhappyface]

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Its been a week and half since ERAS submissions and I'm currently sitting at 3 confirmed interviews and 1 interview where they sent out too many invites therefore can't even register for the waitlist. How many interviews would I need to comfortably match? When do interviews start drying up?

 

[DrStephenStrange]

Usually 10+ for neuro, but I've seen ppl match with less. Currently sitting on 4 myself, and possibly 5 through my current AI. There's still plenty of time though, I wouldn't worry yet.

 

[BlueBleck]

I made this neurotic as heck chart based on charting outcomes 2020 and 2018. Basically for DOs, ~6 ranks = 90% of matching, 9 ranks = 95%, 11 ranks = 97.5%, 13 ranks = 98.75%. I went on 14 interviews because I wasn't sure how the virtual cycle was going to affect things. But I would have been comfortable at 12 in a normal year. I had ~70th percentile step1.

I don't really recall how quickly things flooded in, but I was relatively behind what people on the spreadsheet were saying. If the average was 5 IIs, I would be at like 3-4. At the end, I had 20 IIs from 60 apps.

I recall IIs drying up after about 1.5 months. I had 14 on the dot around then. Then I got some trickle downs slowly after.

 

[elanmorin]

Interesting that the numbers are pretty similar from 2018 and 2020. Our program interviewed 2x the number of people last year and planning to do the same this year due to virtual interviews and getting 2-3x the number of applications.

 

[BlueBleck]

Interesting that the numbers are pretty similar from 2018 and 2020. Our program interviewed 2x the number of people last year and planning to do the same this year due to virtual interviews and getting 2-3x the number of applications.

ERAS releases data on this: ERAS Statistics

I would be surprised if they truly doubled from last year. But I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if it was from a few cycles ago. Especially if your program is up and coming. Though spread isn't reported in this dataset, so it could be a feast/famine sort of a situation.

Something to note, I recall a lot of programs especially on twitter saying that their apps doubled and predicting doom. Things were pretty much business as usual in terms of match/soap/fill rates. I don't really have information into how far down my program dipped, and would be interested to see if that changed.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

I made this neurotic as heck chart based on charting outcomes 2020 and 2018. Basically for DOs, ~6 ranks = 90% of matching, 9 ranks = 95%, 11 ranks = 97.5%, 13 ranks = 98.75%. I went on 14 interviews because I wasn't sure how the virtual cycle was going to affect things. But I would have been comfortable at 12 in a normal year. I had ~70th percentile step1.

I don't really recall how quickly things flooded in, but I was relatively behind what people on the spreadsheet were saying. If the average was 5 IIs, I would be at like 3-4. At the end, I had 20 IIs from 60 apps.

I recall IIs drying up after about 1.5 months. I had 14 on the dot around then. Then I got some trickle downs slowly after.

View attachment 344454

Did you ever send any LOIs? If yes, did you think those helped? And when is the right time to send those?

 

[BlueBleck]

Did you ever send any LOIs? If yes, did you think those helped? And when is the right time to send those?

I didn't because I didn't want to play that game, but my friend did and it netted them 2-3 IIs at mid-high tier locations that likely initially screened them out by step1 score.

Full disclosure though, I did my sub-i at my #1, busted my ass, and got good feedback. Also, my school has a history at that program. And I knew that my classmates also going into neuro didn't want to go there. So I felt confident coming into the match that I would go where I wanted to. Everything else was just to make sure that my backup plan was solid.

 

[Drhappyface]

What's a good # of interviews to be at after 2 weeks?

 

[BlueBleck]

What's a good # of interviews to be at after 2 weeks?

The neuro spreadsheet has a rolling count of IVs/applicant which gets sloppier the further out we go, but is probably one of the only actual metrics on average IVs/wk. The average seems to be 7 this week.



Some other data. Thalamus says that peak II sendouts are 2-3wks out:



I got to IIs within seconds with the help of my SO and understanding preceptors. With relatively good selection for most IIs, I had 4 IVs per month at ~1/wk starting from november.

 

[Drhappyface]

I'm currently sitting at 8. Is it reasonable to think this is it? Will I get anymore? I would really be comfortable if I ended up with a total of 12. Anyone know if more pgy2 spots open up during the cycle?

 

[kazill]

I'm currently sitting at 8. Is it reasonable to think this is it? Will I get anymore? I would really be comfortable if I ended up with a total of 12. Anyone know if more pgy2 spots open up during the cycle?

From what I’ve gathered the answer is “who knows?” We don’t have good historical data given this is only the second year with virtual interviews. It’s likely that all slots have been handed out and any interviews received from here on out are from other applicants dropping their spots. However with the ease of interviews the amount of dropped interviews is likely to be lower than past years as well.

I’m at 10 with one waitlist, I have enough confidence in my application and interview skills to feel I’ll match with what I have, any extra interviews at this point will be a nice bonus. Probably won’t even take any more interviews outside of those in my geographic area of choice.

 

[Drhappyface]

From what I’ve gathered the answer is “who knows?” We don’t have good historical data given this is only the second year with virtual interviews. It’s likely that all slots have been handed out and any interviews received from here on out are from other applicants dropping their spots. However with the ease of interviews the amount of dropped interviews is likely to be lower than past years as well.

I’m at 10 with one waitlist, I have enough confidence in my application and interview skills to feel I’ll match with what I have, any extra interviews at this point will be a nice bonus. Probably won’t even take any more interviews outside of those in my geographic area of choice.

Thanks for the reply. I'm only slightly worried because out of 140 apps I sent, I'm only 8 interviews with one waitlist thus making me think I'm not a strong enough applicant. With the data on this thread, I should be +>90% probability to match however with me being a reapplicant and not the best of stats, I'm worried

 

[DrStephenStrange]

Thanks for the reply. I'm only slightly worried because out of 140 apps I sent, I'm only 8 interviews with one waitlist thus making me think I'm not a strong enough applicant. With the data on this thread, I should be +>90% probability to match however with me being a reapplicant and not the best of stats, I'm worried

Out of 151 neuro app, I have 11 and that includes 2 places that I did audition at. So it could have been 9/151. It's hard, but I like to think that everything will be alright in the end. As long those places rank me at least lol.