How many schools to apply to. (Statistically)

[cwassman]

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# of Schools |       Percent chance of getting into at least 1 school
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1       |  4.00    6.00    8.00   10.00   12.00   14.00   20.00   25.00
     5       | 18.46   26.61   34.09   40.95   47.23   52.96   67.23   76.27
    10       | 33.52   46.14   56.56   65.13   72.15   77.87   89.26   94.37
    15       | 45.79   60.47   71.37   79.41   85.3     9.59   96.48   98.66
    20       | 55.80   70.99   81.13   87.84   92.24   95.10   98.85   99.68
    25       | 63.96   78.71   87.56   92.82   95.91   97.70   99.62   99.92
    30       | 70.61   84.37   91.8    95.76   97.84   98.92   99.88   99.98
    40       | 80.46   91.58   96.44   98.52   99.4    99.76   99.99   99.99

(Assumes same % chance of getting in at each school-- but anyhow should be useful)
First row is the 'base' percentage chance of getting in.

Example:
With a 'base' chance of 4% (Eg. 4% acceptace rate and you are an average canidate) if you apply to 30 such schools, you have an 70.61% chance of getting in somewhere.

Formula: (1-(1-BASE_PERCENT)^NUMBER_OF_SCHOOLS)*100

 

[pottsy2]

The problem with the above system is that you have a much better chance in your home state than elsewhere. Also, I really doubt that many people applying to 30+ schools are accepted at exactly one school. If 29 schools find a problem with you, chances are the 30th school will as well.

 

[cwassman]

The problem with the above system is that you have a much better chance in your home state than elsewhere. Also, I really doubt that many people applying to 30+ schools are accepted at exactly one school. If 29 schools find a problem with you, chances are the 30th school will as well.

Thus the statements :
"Assumes same % chance of getting in at each school"
and
"4% acceptace rate and you are an average canidate"

That is, you are the "average" canidate at all X schools you have applied to... with these assumptions the statistics are perfectly valid.

Also, the 'exactly 1' bit, the stats are not that you got into exactly 1 school... but rather that you get into AT LEAST one school. So it includes the odds of getting into 30/30, 29/30, 28/30....1/30 schools.

You can argue that the stats dont reflect the real world, thus the simplifications, but the stats are valid given the assumptions.

 

[faradayampere]

you must assume admission is random ... which is pretty "true" in the real world

furthermore, you also must assume that each school is an independent event (i.,e. probability (getting into A|getting into B) = probability (getting into A) ... anyone has any idea on the validity of this assumption??? i think it is valid if schools are not communicate with each other ???

 

[IllinoisStudent]

you must assume admission is random ... which is pretty "true" in the real world.

I have started to feel like that now.

Btw, I applied to only 4 schools, and I already have an acceptance. So those stats don't matter that much.

I see no point of applying to a school that you won't go even if you get accepted. I ended up making the same mistake because I was feeling compelled to have a "safety" school (IS thinking about what he could have done w/ those 100 bucks ). What is interesting is that my safety school is one of the few schools that hasn't got back to me yet 🙁

 

[dalynn]

I have started to feel like that now.

Btw, I applied to only 4 schools, and I already have an acceptance. So those stats don't matter that much.

I see no point of applying to a school that you won't go even if you get accepted. I ended up making the same mistake because I was feeling compelled to have a "safety" school (IS thinking about what he could have done w/ those 100 bucks ). What is interesting is that my safety school is one of the few schools that hasn't got back to me yet 🙁

Yeah, I applied to 6 through AMCAS...I never heard anything back from my long-shot, which was expected, but I was surprised that I never heard anything from my safety. Not even a secondary.
I also got waitlisted (prior to interview) from my next-to-least competitive school.
The schools that I really thought would at least interview me are ignoring me, and the ones I thought I'd never even get a secondary from are interested. Weird.