How much higher than the average GPA and MCAT should you be?

[ieatshrimp24]

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I'm trying to make a list of medical schools to apply to this upcoming summer. I want to find safe schools to apply to but I want to know what is considered a "safe" medical school. For example, if a medical school has an average GPA and MCAT of 3.5 and 32, what stats would I need to consider this a safe school? I'm looking at stats, tuition, and location right now as a start of my list, then I'll narrow it down to medical schools that interest me. Thanks.

 

[Lost in Translation]

Safe as in safety? There are no safety schools. If your stats are too strong, they will give you no love (unless it's your state school or in your region) because of something called yield protection. Applying to med school is nothing like applying to college.

 

[Flashfan]

The "safest" school will be your state school, unless you are from California. Otherwise, find schools that are a good fit. If you have a ton of community service, add the Jesuit schools. If you have a ton of research, there are schools that reward that.

 

[DokterMom]

Look at the 10-90 splits rather than the straight averages. If you're below the 10 or above the 90, you'll need a specific hook (program fit, research, spectacular ECs) to make the application worth your time and money.

 

[justadream]

This depends on the school. If it is a school that practices "yield protection," having a stats that are significantly higher than the average may actually be a detriment.

For example, having a 4.0 GPA, 44 MCAT will likely hurt you in getting into a school like Georgetown.

For in-state schools, yield protection is less likely so in that scenario, having stats well above the averages may help you.

 

[deleted482591]

The "safest" school will be your state school, unless you are from California.

What are safe schools for California then? UCI isn't good?

 

[piii]

What are safe schools for California then? UCI isn't good?

DO schools

 

[NotWayneBrady]

What are safe schools for California then? UCI isn't good?

Nope, pretty much all of the UCs are notoriously difficult to get into. LizzyM 78 here and I haven't heard a thing from UCI since the secondaries went out last year.

UCSD, UCSF, and UCLA are all high-stat schools in highly coveted regions, and so are enormously competitive especially as a Californian.

UCR and UCD are low stat, but very mission based and committed to serving their respective regions. (I believe UCI is as well, to a certain extent.)

Californians get the short end of the stick when it comes to in-state schools.

 

[Goldslugs]

Nope, pretty much all of the UCs are notoriously difficult to get into. LizzyM 78 here and I haven't heard a thing from UCI since the secondaries went out last year.

UCSD, UCSF, and UCLA are all high-stat schools in highly coveted regions, and so are enormously competitive especially as a Californian.

UCR and UCD are low stat, but very mission based and committed to serving their respective regions. (I believe UCI is as well, to a certain extent.)

Californians get the short end of the stick when it comes to in-state schools.

UCI is mission-based they love applicants who can speak spanish because they're all about providing care to underserved hispanics. I know a few people who got rejected post-interview because they said they didn't speak spanish.

UCR = you're not getting in if you aren't from the area and probably didn't go there for undergrad.

UCD = They ain't loyal to their undergrads at all or people from the area (unless you count the entire state of CA). They love applicants from "diverse backgrounds" (think URMs) so that's most of the low stats they accept, so don't be fooled by the stats for this place. They say they emphasize applicants with underserved care experience, but looking at those who are accepted that doesn't seem to be the case at all, unless you count the "diverse backgrounds" = "more likely to serve their own demographic" shtick. UCD was also the school that was taken to court over racial quotas of applicants they have and it was ruled that a quota they had of URMs was unconstitutionally high.

 

[ieatshrimp24]

Nope, pretty much all of the UCs are notoriously difficult to get into. LizzyM 78 here and I haven't heard a thing from UCI since the secondaries went out last year.

UCSD, UCSF, and UCLA are all high-stat schools in highly coveted regions, and so are enormously competitive especially as a Californian.

UCR and UCD are low stat, but very mission based and committed to serving their respective regions. (I believe UCI is as well, to a certain extent.)

Californians get the short end of the stick when it comes to in-state schools.

I'm from California. Just great.

 

[NotWayneBrady]

I'm from California. Just great.

Not impossible to get into med school, just don't expect to stay here.

I think it was gyngyn who mentioned that literally every CA medical school seat could be filled by UCLA's graduating premed class. We have a lot of tough competition here, which is why I'm probably going to end up in Cleveland.

Edit: That and by god do I suck at MMI. "More fair to the applicants" my a**.

 

[Goldslugs]

Not impossible to get into med school, just don't expect to stay here.

I think it was gyngyn who mentioned that literally every CA medical school seat could be filled by UCLA's graduating premed class. We have a lot of tough competition here, which is why I'm probably going to end up in Cleveland.

Edit: That and by god do I suck at MMI. "More fair to the applicants" my a**.

Interviewers in general aren't fair. One interviewer who isn't on the same wavelength as you or decides they don't like you is all that's needed to drop you in the reject/waitlist pile. MMIs are more of a popularity contest than anything though.

Edit: If you want to go to med school in CA try CNU. Even though it's an atrocious school by any standards it's still a California atrocious MD medical school.

 

[ieatshrimp24]

We have a lot of tough competition here, which is why I'm probably going to end up in Cleveland.

LOL

 

[Goro]

3.5 and 32.

No med school is "safe". they all have acceptances rates of < 5%. But some schools are more favorable to IS residents, or those who fit their mission.

I consider you competitive if you're above median, and even down to ~0.2-0.3 points in GPA and 3-4 points in MCAT, depending upon the schools.

I'm trying to make a list of medical schools to apply to this upcoming summer. I want to find safe schools to apply to but I want to know what is considered a "safe" medical school. For example, if a medical school has an average GPA and MCAT of 3.5 and 32, what stats would I need to consider this a safe school? I'm looking at stats, tuition, and location right now as a start of my list, then I'll narrow it down to medical schools that interest me. Thanks.

 

[gyngyn]

UCD = They ain't loyal to their undergrads at all or people from the area (unless you count the entire state of CA).

Actually, UCD matriculates a higher percentage of their own undergrads than any other UC (27%) except for UCR (they have a policy reserving spots for undergrads due to their regional mandate for service). It might be the highest percentage of any other CA school (MSAR has some missing data points and not all CA medical schools have an undergrad...).

 

[gyngyn]

What are safe schools for California then? UCI isn't good?

Last year there were 6520 CA applicants. Only 910 of them matriculated into any CA MD school.
Most successful candidates went OOS (1528). https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstablea5.pdf

CA has thousands of excellent applicants (UCLA alone had 919 last year!). A successful applicant considers at least twice as many good OOS choices as IS.

 

[Lawpy]

Last year there were 6520 CA applicants. 910 of them matriculated into any CA MD school.
Most successful candidates went OOS (1528). https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstablea5.pdf

CA has thousands of excellent applicants (UCLA alone had 919 last year!). A successful applicant considers at least twice as many good OOS choices as IS.

What do you consider OOS applicants/matriculants (with no ties to CA whatsoever) coming to CA for medical school? Specifically the UCs?

 

[moisne]

why I'm probably going to end up in Cleveland.

What? lol

 

[gyngyn]

What do you consider OOS applicants/matriculants (with no ties to CA whatsoever) coming to CA for medical school? Specifically the UCs?

I estimate at least 3600+ unduplicated OOS applicants to UC schools.
About 120 matriculate. That's about 3%.

 

[DokterMom]

What do you consider OOS applicants/matriculants (with no ties to CA whatsoever) coming to CA for medical school? Specifically the UCs?

Donors? 😀

 

[gyngyn]

Donors? 😀

A bigger cynic than me!

 

[Lawpy]

I estimate at least 3600+ unduplicated OOS applicants to UC schools.
About 120 matriculate. That's about 3%.

Last year there were 6520 CA applicants. 910 of them matriculated into any CA MD school.
Most successful candidates went OOS (1528).

So at least 10,000 applicants in total applied to CA! Has any other state come close (or even surpassed 😱) this popularity?

But what is so surprising is that 3600 OOS applicants with no ties to CA applied to UC schools. I didn't expect such popularity when UC schools are already competitive for CA applicants.

Donors? 😀

Admittedly, I was expecting only around 1000 OOS applicants applying to UC schools. But 3600. That was well above my estimate.

 

[WedgeDawg]

Donors? 😀

A bigger cynic than me!

Brutal

 

[WedgeDawg]

@Lawper

Anyone who is at least somewhat competitive for top schools (which includes anyone with a 3.8/35+) will likely be applying to one of UCLA, UCSD, UCSF, even those with no ties to CA.

That's a fair number of people.

 

[gyngyn]

But what is so surprising is that 3600 OOS applicants with no ties to CA applied to UC schools. I didn't expect such popularity when UC schools are already competitive for CA applicants.
.

Hope springs eternal.

 

[Lawpy]

@Lawper

Anyone who is at least somewhat competitive for top schools (which includes anyone with a 3.8/35+) will likely be applying to one of UCLA, UCSD, UCSF, even those with no ties to CA.

That's a fair number of people.

But 3600 applicants? I suspect a significant fraction of them are applying for the sake of good climate, good resources etc. despite having pretty crappy apps. That number is way too large for the UCs.

Hope springs eternal.

But has any other state come close? From the looks of it, there aren't any. CA completely blew them away.

 

[gyngyn]

So at least 10,000 applicants in total applied to CA! Has any other state come close (or even surpassed 😱) this popularity?

For sure there are more unduplicated OOS applicants to NY schools...
There are >7000 OOS applicants to Albany alone!

Drexel has 13K+ OOS. These are private schools, but many states get more OOS applicants than CA.

 

[WedgeDawg]

But 3600 applicants? I suspect a significant fraction of them are applying for the sake of good climate, good resources etc. despite having pretty crappy apps. That number is way too large for the UCs.

3600 OOS total isn't that much (though it's probably the largest of any state school). However, if that number is UCs as a whole, it's not that much at all.

 

[Lawpy]

I'll bet there are more unduplicated OOS applicants to NY schools...

As counterintuitive as it seems, I was actually expecting Texas and Florida to be somewhere close (purely out of good climate conditions and resources).

3600 OOS total isn't that much (though it's probably the largest of any state school). However, if that number is UCs as a whole, it's not that much at all.

But isn't the total number of applicants roughly 50,000? We're talking roughly 7-8% of the applicant pool applying specifically to the UCs as OOS with no ties. That's why it seems relatively large.

 

[sephora89]

For sure there are more unduplicated OOS applicants to NY schools...
There are >7000 OOS applicants to Albany alone!

Drexel has 13K+ OOS. These are private schools, but many states get more OOS applicants than CA.

Being IS for NY is just as disadvantageous as being from CA!

 

[gyngyn]

As counterintuitive as it seems, I was actually expecting Texas and Florida to be somewhere close (purely out of good climate conditions and resources).

TX restricts OOS matriculants by statute.

 

[WedgeDawg]

As counterintuitive as it seems, I was actually expecting Texas and Florida to be somewhere close (purely out of good climate conditions and resources).



But isn't the total number of applicants roughly 50,000? We're talking roughly 7-8% of the applicant pool applying specifically to the UCs as OOS with no ties. That's why it seems relatively large.

It's relatively large compared to cohorts that apply OOS to any other state school (maybe not NY, idk), but it's not surprising given that CA is the only state with three state schools in the top 20. Anyone who applies to Stanford basically by default applies to UCSF or UCLA.

 

[gyngyn]

Being IS for NY is just as disadvantageous as being from CA!

Probably not. NY has 3585 applicants of whom 968 matriculate IS (27%) compared to only 14% for CA.
NY also has schools with a broader range of acceptable scores than CA.

 

[sephora89]

Probably not. NY has 3585 applicants of whom 968 matriculate IS (27%) compared to only 14% for CA.
NY also has schools with a broader range of acceptable scores than CA.

I feel like that number is inflated by the 3.9/36 IS candidate matriculating to NYU, Columbia, Mt. Sinai…

It doesn't really help the average IS candidate. I think.

 

[gyngyn]

I feel like that number is inflated by the 3.9/36 IS candidate matriculating to NYU, Columbia, Mt. Sinai…

It doesn't really help the average IS candidate. I think.

But you have so many good reachable public schools.

 

[sephora89]

But you have so many good reachable schools as well.

I hope so! It's not like we get any leg up at schools like Albany or NYMC since they're private.

 

[gyngyn]

I hope so! It's not like we get any leg up at schools like Albany or NYMC since they're private.

Even though they are private, they still have a preference for IS applicants due to yield...

 

[Lawpy]

There are >7000 OOS applicants to Albany alone!

Drexel has 13K+ OOS. These are private schools, but many states get more OOS applicants than CA.

... well I admit you got me to look into MSAR more carefully now. but this is slightly confusing. Doesn't having more applicants for a given school warrant increased competition? Clearly, Drexel/Albany aren't in the same level as UCs/CA schools since the latter is more competitive, but yet despite that, the former has an increased OOS volume

It's relatively large compared to cohorts that apply OOS to any other state school (maybe not NY, idk), but it's not surprising given that CA is the only state with three state schools in the top 20. Anyone who applies to Stanford basically by default applies to UCSF or UCLA.

Hm, that contributes it. But then again, the UCs for the most part (UCSF, UCLA and UCSD) really aren't "state" schools. So I guess I'd expect something similar for PA because Pitt, despite being private, has state funds? @Ismet can you clarify on this?

 

[blub1212]

But has any other state come close? From the looks of it, there aren't any. CA completely blew them away.

I go to a midwest school and we had about 7,000 applicants last year to our school alone. I wouldn't be surprised if the other medical school in this state brought us close to or over 10,000 applicants total to this state (and I go to school in some seriously undesirable midwest geography haha). I think you would be really surprised at the numbers of applicants if you started looking around.

 

[gyngyn]

Hm, that contributes it. But then again, the UCs for the most part (UCSF, UCLA and UCSD) really aren't "state" schools. So I guess I'd expect something similar for PA because Pitt, despite being private, has state funds? @Ismet can you clarify on this?

These are most assuredly public schools. The only UC's with a stated preference for IS candidates though, are UCD and UCR.

 

[sephora89]

Even though they are private, they still have a preference for IS applicants due to yield...

That's like music to my ears, thank you! I always wondered if private schools had a subconscious bias for their own IS candidates. I can see why they do.

 

[gyngyn]

That's like music to my ears, thank you! I always wondered if private schools had a subconscious bias for their own IS candidates. I can see why they do.

I promise you, it's conscious.

 

[Lawpy]

I go to a midwest school and we had about 7,000 applicants last year to our school alone. I wouldn't be surprised if the other medical school in this state brought us close to or over 10,000 applicants total to this state (and I go to school in some seriously undesirable midwest geography haha). I think you would be really surprised at the numbers of applicants if you started looking around.

Yeah I need to look into the MSAR more carefully. Looks like I missed something critical.

These are most assuredly public schools. The only UC's with a stated preference for IS candidates though, are UCD and UCR.

Ah right. That makes sense, thanks!

 

[GrapesofRath]

AS gyngyn has stated above it's largely a myth that schools that are private or dont explicitly state there is IS bias can never have IS bias. % of IS applicants offered a II vs % of OOS applicants offered a II statistics really dont lie. That's why Table 5 of AAMC is so key. New York in reality isnt a bad state at all. It's no West Virginia but you have the SUNYs, Albany and NYMC where you'll have an advantage and where the stats arent all that high. Not bad at all. The thing with New York is all the SUNYs have 33+ MCAT medians. If you are a decent candidate, being there is a good state. If you are your generic 3.5/30 candidate things will be harder.

As for Pitt, the specific breakdown of their funding isn't all that relevant more relevant is the fact their median stats are 3.85/36 and they get way too many 3.8+/35+ applicants for their own good. Pitt's not the type of school that needs to worry about "yield" the way a lower tier might; there are WAY too many applicants with top stats who'd give their right arm to go there.

 

[Annabell Lee]

Safe as in safety? There are no safety schools. If your stats are too strong, they will give you no love (unless it's your state school or in your region) because of something called yield protection. Applying to med school is nothing like applying to college.

I'm still pretty confused by yield protection. But is that something you don't have to worry about at all with your state school? I don't know the 10th and 90th percentiles but the median GPA for the school I'm most interested in is only 3.6, but it's one of my state schools.

 

[Nietzschelover]

The 3600 number for OOS strike me as quite low actually. Little 'ol Vermont (one school) has more OOS apps than all of California? I would have thought UCSF and UCLA would have exceeded the 3600 number individually.

 

[gyngyn]

I'm still pretty confused by yield protection. But is that something you don't have to worry about at all with your state school? I don't know the 10th and 90th percentiles but the median GPA for the school I'm most interested in is only 3.6, but it's one of my state schools.

It's really just resource management.
No school can interview all qualified candidates. Some judgment regarding the odds of return on investment must be made in order to fill the class with the best candidates that are likely to come.
If you have to interview three times the number of OOS candidates (or MCAT >520...) to fill a seat you will necessarily be more circumspect with those offers.

Most state schools are not as worried that you will go OOS,as they are usually cheaper and people have a tendency to stay where they are familiar.

 

[Lost in Translation]

I'm still pretty confused by yield protection. But is that something you don't have to worry about at all with your state school? I don't know the 10th and 90th percentiles but the median GPA for the school I'm most interested in is only 3.6, but it's one of my state schools.

Yield protection is a school not showing any love to an overqualified (aka stats too good) candidate because they figure (and rightly so) that you'd likely be accepted to a more competitive school and would go to that institution over theirs if you had offers from both places. So to avoid handing out acceptances to people that wouldn't consider attending (and thus not giving acceptances to students that might actually want to be at their school), they reject those overqualified applicants.

 

[gyngyn]

The 3600 number for OOS strike me as quite low actually. Little 'ol Vermont (one school) has more OOS apps than all of California? I would have thought UCSF and UCLA would have exceeded the 3600 number individually.

I was estimating. You're right, the real number is probably closer to 3800, not much more than that, though.

 

[Nietzschelover]

In the yield protection business, specifically for those schools (VCU, Miami, etc) that come to an overt ranking, how do they compute high stats folks unlikely to matriculate? Are high stats at some schools actually used to downgrade on a scale of 1 to 5. Will high stats from OOS actually make someone a "2" at VCU?