How predictive were the NBMEs (for those who got scores back 7/10 and beyond)

[sharklasers]

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I want a more recent correlation. I feel like a ton of people I have spoken to found that the NBMEs actually underpredicted their step 1 score (myself included).

Is this a new trend?

EDIT: by within range, i figure +/- 5 of your latest NBMEs is a good definition. but really, just answer how you feel! i got 6 points higher than i did on my NBMEs and feel as though that the nbmes underpredicted my score. maybe someone else would feel differently with a similar score difference!

 

[SLC]

I want a more recent correlation. I feel like a ton of people I have spoken to found that the NBMEs actually underpredicted their step 1 score (myself included).

Is this a new trend?

I voted under predict, but in my case it was only by 4-5 points (can't remember exactly what the NBME score was).

Though I only did #15, perhaps it would have been closer had I done 2-3 more.

UWSA over-predicted by about the same amount of points.

 

[SLC]

Double post, that was strange!

 

[loveoforganic2]

This is a poll that could really use the SeanieB many option treatment. People have different opinion of what underpredict/overpredict is

I'd say poll options of the below would provide pretty valuable information -

>Step 1 score: <188; NBME average >7 points higher
>Step 1 score: <188; NBME average +/-7 points
>Step 1 score: <188; NBME average >7 points lower

>Step 1 score: 188-227; NBME average >7 points higher
>Step 1 score: 188-227; NBME average +/-7 points
>Step 1 score: 188-227; NBME average >7 points lower

>Step 1 score: 228-245; NBME average >7 points higher
>Step 1 score: 228-245; NBME average +/-7 points
>Step 1 score: 228-245; NBME average >7 points lower

>Step 1 score: >245; NBME average >7 points higher
>Step 1 score: >245; NBME average +/-7 points
>Step 1 score: >245; NBME average >7 points lower

Maybe use "Last NBME" or "NBME average within 2 weeks of test" or something instead of average

 

[sharklasers]

yeah that definitely would have been better lol. oh well

 

[g8orlife]

Last 2 NBMEs 1 week out were each 1 point under my real score. So, "within range".

AlthoughI think you should specify what "within range" means, b/c I also could've classified mine as "underpredicted".

 

[MiDoc2]

I took 2 nbme exams (15 & 13) and my real score was the average of the two taken within 3 weeks of the exam.

 

[eimaise]

Target Score 6 months out - 240
NBME #13, 7 days out - 242
NBME #15, 5 days out - 238

Real Test - 234

I had been predicting somewhere in the 235 to 245 range on my real exam, so because I didn't hit that, I chose under predict.

 

[carddoc33]

NBME 7-228 3 weeks out
NBME 11-247 2 weeks out
NBME 15-252 3 days out

251 on the real thing.

 

[sharklasers]

Hmmm I wonder if this high percentage of under predictions is normal

 

[Suncrusher]

Target Score 6 months out - 240
NBME #13, 7 days out - 242
NBME #15, 5 days out - 238

Real Test - 234

...I chose under predict.

If your NBME's predicted 238-242 and you got a 234, that's an overprediction by the NBMEs

Mine was a slight underpredict, but I took it 2 weeks before my exam so I'd expect some improvement in that time... (and also I don't qualify for the 7/10 group anyway 😉 )

 

[IamaBanana]

NBME 13: 217
NBME 11: 221
NBME 12: 240

Real thing: 231

In range I suppose, a little of an overprediction since the last was one I took was quite a bit higher.

 

[eimaise]

If your NBME's predicted 238-242 and you got a 234, that's an overprediction by the NBMEs

Mine was a slight underpredict, but I took it 2 weeks before my exam so I'd expect some improvement in that time... (and also I don't qualify for the 7/10 group anyway 😉 )

Oops, thanks for pointing that out. I actually did vote properly (overpredict) in the poll but wrote the wrong word in my post above.

 

[MedicineMike]

NBME 6: 203 - 6wks out
NBME 13: 221 - 4 wks out
NBME 15: 227 - 3 wks out
NBME 12: 231 - 2 wks out
NBME 11: 235 - 1 wk out
NBME 7: 231 - a few days out
UWSA1 - 248 - a few days out
UWSA2 - 258 - 2 days prior

Real Deal: 240

 

[Barcu]

My real thing was about 6 points higher than my highest practice (NBME 15), which I took a couple days before the real thing.

It's actually pretty common to hear people complain that they studied too long for the test. I guess I was just peaking at the right time (or maybe I could have done even better, but I'm pretty happy with my score). I took about a week less than most people at my school take. It's hard to predict, but don't just assume that you should take every single day available to you.

 

[Sileni]

.

 

[Evil_Abed]

I scored about 15 points higher than my NBME average -- I took 5 total NBMEs. I also scored 10 pts higher than my highest NBME score. So the NBMEs definitely underpredicted my score. To be fair though, the only dedicated studying I did prior to my last NBME was UWorld questions -- I read a couple of chapters of Pathoma and a few chapters in FA after my last NBME (taken about 1.5 weeks before my actual test date). Luckily, I had a good foundation already, so the way I'm thinking, I only added more random facts + reinforced some stuff after the NBMEs and before Step 1 -- maybe if I had done all this during the time I was taking my NBMEs, they would've been more predictive. The actual exam was definitely tougher than the NBMEs were, IMHO.

 

[preDoGuy24]

CBSSE thing said 225, 6 weeks out

NBME 15 3 days out 233

NBME 13 (offline) 22 incorrect, so 240-250 ish..

real deal 249, 16 points higher then the only online nbme i took.

 

[gators21]

NBME 15 3 weeks out: 210
NBME 13 1 week out:221
Actual: 235

 

[HolySmokes]

NBMEs overpredicted for me. Actual score was 9 points below NBME 15 taken 1 week out, and 4 points below my lowest NBME score.

 

[LadyLoe]

Here is my experience...

UWSA 3 weeks out = 260
NBME 12 2 weeks out = 242
UWSA 1 week out= 265* /800

Actual Score = 260 🙂

If it helps my actual exam was nothing close to NBME 12. I felt that the NBME questions were very easy but the curve was just more steep. My test questions were VERY similar to UWORLD and UWSA, so maybe there is a correlation there....