How strongly does shelf performance correlate to Step I

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ronaldo23

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my school makes us take the shelf for every subject the first two years, and it generally counts as a large part of the course grade. I try to always study for the shelf (whereas most classmates will just study 2-3 days before the test), to make sure that my school is hitting the high yield, frequently tested points. I typically score around 65-70 percentile on the tests, with studying. Is it reasonable to think I will get a 70+ percentile if I continue to study at the same pace/greater for Step I, or is this comparison apples and oranges.

In general, is there typically a strong correlation with performances on the shelf and step I? That is, for those who tried to do well on the shelfs. Obviously someone who doesn't care at all about the shelf will probably do a lot better on step I since htey are studying hardcore for that.

I'd appreciate either specific experiences with people and how they did on both, or general opinions
 
A big issue with this is that a lot of schools have their students take shelf exams as a way to practice. In other words, the grade doesn't count. It's reasonable to think that these scores might drag down the national average.
 
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