I feel like low end-tidal volatile agent + stimulation happening at the same time are the key ingredients in the cursed recipe that causes coughing / bucking / ugly wake-ups. You've got to find a way to eliminate one of those two things, or at least separate the timing so they don't happen simultaneously, in order to have consistently smooth extubations.
The stimulation can take many forms: ETT presence (duh), surgical site pain, final sutures, the "one last bovie on the skin real quick here" maneuver, the presence of irritable airways from smoking or recent URI, doing the stuff you see in training hospitals like excessive suctioning, jaw-thrusting, screaming at the patient, etc.
The low end-tidal volatile agent represents a lightly anesthetized mind that's primed to "freak out" at any of the above stimulants. I think there's something particularly irritating about volatile agents that prime a patient for an irritable wake-up, as opposed to emergence from TIVA, for example.
So your choices:
Option A: Let the patient emerge from inhalational general anesthesia land with the ETT still in place, but you've got to come up with some way to cover up the stimulation(s) mentioned above during this phase. Generously titrated narcotic is probably the most reliable way, along with a good regional block when applicable.
Option B: Let the patient emerge from deep inhalational anesthesia, but remove all stimulation prior to them becoming "light". Deep extubate, don't aggressively move the patient, don't suction unnecessarily, don't have loud music blasting, etc. That way you've uncoupled the temporal relationship between the lightly anesthetized mind stage and the stimulators.
Option C: Get the volatile agent nearly completely off prior to extubation, but you have to find something else to anesthetize the brain during this period as a "bridge". Propofol, precedex, nitrous oxide can all be helpful here. This may seem similar to option A, but I think there's an important distinction in philosophy here in that you are technically maintaining a deep plane of anesthesia (as opposed to just cranking up the analgesia). Deep is a state of mind, not an end-tidal sevoflurane number.
I do primarily pediatrics, and the culture and skill-set of our PACU nurses makes Option B very safe and common for most routine cases. This is a traditional deep extubation and is what I do most of the time. I'll usually bolus 1mg/kg propofol right before extubation just to make sure they are truly deep.
For patients I don't feel comfortable extubating on 1.2+ MAC sevoflurane I'll usually do a combination of options A and B. My go-to in these cases is to get the gas off EARLY and essentially convert over to a TIVA with propofol + narcotic for the final 20-30 minutes of the case. As long as the patient's spontaneous ventilation is adequate, the EtSevo is <0.3, and preferably there's some rudimentary signs of airway protective reflex like swallowing, that's all I need to see to be comfortable extubating assuming easy airway on induction.
But it is true that unless you are deep extubating, you can't win them all, especially in smokers or those with reactive airways from intrinsic disease or inflammed tissues from recent URI.