How will a recession affect us?

[urge]

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I guess we have all heard of the incoming recession. I think it is pretty real and very close. It wouldn't surprise me if it turns into a depression. Anyone want to speculate how it's going to affect us?

I'll start. People will not be having plastic/cosmetic surgery that much. Surgicenters will suffer the most from this. Stable groups will work longer hours/ less vacation to maintain. Higher percentage of uninsured pts will make a hole in many hospitals. We'll stay away from expensive drugs like remifent and might even try to do everything under spinal anesth(like they do in India- it's really cheap)

Salary wise, there will be a lot of inflation and little salary raises. Imported goods will be really expensive. Domestic ones will be cheap.

However it turns, it will definitely be interesting.

What's your take?

 

[deleted126335]

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[huron]

Hospitals feeling the financial pressure will be even less inclined to subsidize anesthesia groups. The cheapest anesthesia service will be the best anesthesia choice. Recession=poor stock market performance, docs who are close to retirement will delay it. Those who are part time will work closer to full time. Everyone will be more inclined to work harder and hire fewer new associates. Less vacation, more likely to work post call days, ACT practices that typically supervise 2-3 rooms, will drift towards 3-4 rooms. Level of service (care) will drop to compensate for spending more time on "billable" interactions: participation in hospital committees, inhouse pre-op and post-op visits will fall off as people work on economically productive endeavors.
🙁

Health Care is almost to recession proof. What are you going to delay your acute appy until you have more money in a year? Even in plastics if they have money they won’t care about the recession if they don’t have money they will just barrow the money for their new breast implants.

Most of what dr doze lists are trends that will happen recession or not.

 

[deleted126335]

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[urge]

Even in plastics if they have money they won't care about the recession if they don't have money they will just barrow the money for their new breast implants.

What are you going to delay your acute appy until you have more money in a year?

They might want to borrow money but it will be a lot harder to do in a recession. A lot of people will lose their jobs.

Breasts vs shelter
breasts vs food

It's not that hard.

They'll have their appy done. No question about it. They just won't pay for it. Sucks for guys like us who won't be able to collect.


On another note, I think the housing market is going caca big time. I'm holding for 5 yrs before buying.

 

[g3pro]

I'm not sure specifically relating to anesthesiology, but here's my take:

investment in pharmaceuticals decreases
investment in medical devices decreases
demand for employment decreases across the board to cut costs
increase in several factors of inflation (energy, food (as a result of high demand for commodities when the dollar continues to suffer))


There will be no "safe" investment, as stock market prices will be extremely volatile, and yearly returns will not be comparable to the rate of inflation. Interest will continue to be low as the private banks (Federal Reserve) sets low interest rates to stimulate the economy, further making a mess of the credit markets, leading to further foreclosures and a "wealth vacuum" when home prices is the "investment" that many families turned to in the past decade. Savings will mysteriously vanish, the cost of living increases.

All said, the safest bet is to continue working, which means delayed retirement for seasoned physicians. Increased supply of physicians, along with a decrease in aesthetic or elective surgeries means decreased pay-out.

Long-term results could be beneficial. Or disastrous. When the government revenue decreases, universal healthcare will be out of the question, along with many, many social programs. It will be difficult to fund medicare/medicaid. The government could decide that further cuts in physician payout are necessary. The government would likely raise taxes to compensate (if democrats are elected), which means more taxation at the upper income brackets.

Private insurance will need to cut costs as their investments do not fare well during the recession (or depression). Payout can decrease in that realm as well.


Overall, it does not bode well for physicians, much less anesthesiologists. But, the entire country will suffer as a result of the disastrous policies of 100 years of politicians more concerned about getting elected than the constitutional powers and responsibilities they were given. They spend, spend, spend, tax, tax, tax, invade other countries unnecessarily, and buy into socialist welfare programs. All to the detriment of its citizens, and the future of the country. The debt that we are incurring (about $50,000,000,000,000), will need to be paid someday, and the somebody will be us. With our weak dollar, our weak job markets, and weak outlook.

Where would you rather be, unemployed in business, or employed in medicine with a future?

 

[urge]

All said, the safest bet is to continue working, which means delayed retirement for seasoned physicians. Increased supply of physicians, along with a decrease in aesthetic or elective surgeries means decreased pay-out.

The cheapest anesthesia service will be the best anesthesia choice.

Bye bye hospital subsidy. The party is coming to an end.

 

[g3pro]

But hey, if it's only a recession, then there's a recovery. The real thing to worry about is a depression, and by the looks of things, might not be an unrealistic impossibility at this point.

 

[dhb]

Salary wise, there will be a lot of inflation and little salary raises.
However it turns, it will definitely be interesting.

What's your take?

This has been going on for years but people don't realize it because of the cheap manufactured goods produced in asia. Your 500k today is a pity compared to the same amount in the 1990's

 

[jwk]

What recession?

And depression? Get real - unless you're talking about the clinical kind.

 

[g3pro]

What recession?

And depression? Get real - unless you're talking about the clinical kind.

Check the latest jobs data. And manufacturing data. And CPI. And projected GDP growth. And Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. And inflation.

Remember, depression is simply a prolonged recession. There has been massive inflationary spending for the past 30 years, and we are seeing the housing bubble burst. What happens when the "wealth" that people had in their homes goes away? People become vary wary of what they spend money on. What happens when people lose their jobs? Less economic activity.

The dollar is worth less and less every year. Our dollar is worth pennies compared to the dollar of 1913.

We're due for a major economic correction. The joy ride is coming to an end. Maybe 2008. Maybe in a few years. It's gotta happen, thanks to your friendly neighborhood Federal Reserve.

 

[proman]

The start of a recession can only be diagnosed retrospectively. It takes 2 quarters of GDP contraction instead of growth, even at a slow rate. The uncertainty now is whether the growth from the previous quarter (4.9%) will slow, by how much, and for how long. I think the jobs data (5% unemployed) indicates severe slowing of the economy and most likely a recession. It's a natural correction to the economy and allows for growth in the future. So, I have a bit of cash that I'm keeping available. Stocks will be on sale for at least a year and I plan on dollar cost averaging my way into good cheap high quality companies. Advice: right now accumulate cash and wait.

 

[urge]

the problem is cash in US dollars won't be worth much. investing in foreign money is the way to go.

 

[coprolalia]

Long-term results could be beneficial. Or disastrous.

Talk about covering all the bases. No wonder you're "always right". Are you running for political office?

-copro

 

[proman]

the problem is cash in US dollars won't be worth much. investing in foreign money is the way to go.

If you want to play the FOREX lottery be my guest. You'd stand a better chance in Vegas. A weak dollar only matters if you try to buy imports. American listed stocks are in dollars, not Euros, so the exchange rate doesn't matter. On the other hand, a weak dollar means US goods are cheaper to buy overseas and the large multinational corporations will do well (assuming the rest of the world doesn't crash). They'll also realize a benefit when they convert those Euros into dollars.

You should have a balanced portfolio, but don't pass up the coming firesale on US stocks.

 

[g3pro]

If you want to play the FOREX lottery be my guest. You'd stand a better chance in Vegas. A weak dollar only matters if you try to buy imports. American listed stocks are in dollars, not Euros, so the exchange rate doesn't matter. On the other hand, a weak dollar means US goods are cheaper to buy overseas and the large multinational corporations will do well (assuming the rest of the world doesn't crash). They'll also realize a benefit when they convert those Euros into dollars.

You should have a balanced portfolio, but don't pass up the coming firesale on US stocks.

A weak dollar could be caused by inflation, as well as decreased demand for dollars across the world.

If the dollar continues to fall against the euro (highly likely), if you invest in euros in the short-term, you can buy back the dollars at a much higher rate down the road. It's an extremely risky investment, but look at what the dollar has done against the euro for the past few years. You save yourself against inflation, and you take advantage of short-term currency fluctuations.

I considered it, but decided against it. I would fare it out with CDs and money market funds. But there's definitely no sense investing in a stock market which will fall in value and at the same time inflation hitting.

 

[jetproppilot]

A weak dollar could be caused by inflation, as well as decreased demand for dollars across the world.

If the dollar continues to fall against the euro (highly likely), if you invest in euros in the short-term, you can buy back the dollars at a much higher rate down the road. It's an extremely risky investment, but look at what the dollar has done against the euro for the past few years. You save yourself against inflation, and you take advantage of short-term currency fluctuations.

I considered it, but decided against it. I would fare it out with CDs and money market funds. But there's definitely no sense investing in a stock market which will fall in value and at the same time inflation hitting.

Know what I love from an investment standpoint?

FEAR.

I'm no Warren Buffet. I'm not even close to being considered an embryonic precursor of Warren Buffet.

But I've figured out one thing:

Stocks are traded wildly based on two things: FEAR AND GREED.

So I've made some contrarian purchases of a cuppla companies...one is bankrupt (man...remember Kmart?).... at a really cheap price based on one of the driving forces: FEAR.

If I'm wrong, oh well.

Havent risked anything that'll kill me.

BUT IF I'M RIGHT? 😍😍

 

[g3pro]

Sell on fear, buy at the lowest points of economic cycles. In other words, buy low, sell high. Be the first one to panic, and you profit the most.

 

[coprolalia]

In other words, buy low, sell high.

Holy cow, you are dropping pearls here! Man, if people had only known this before, we'd all be rich! I think we should sticky this thread.

-copro

 

[jwk]

Sell on fear, buy at the lowest points of economic cycles. In other words, buy low, sell high. Be the first one to panic, and you profit the most.

Buy solid stocks and hold them for long term, use dollar-cost averaging, etc. Having a short-term outlook has never been a solid investing concept.

 

[g3pro]

Buy solid stocks and hold them for long term, use dollar-cost averaging, etc. Having a short-term outlook has never been a solid investing concept.

The former strategy was responsible for Warren Buffett's early investment successes. He played the business cycle and made billions. Your strategy is just another way to invest wisely.

Define short-term as bound by the business cycle, and you have a winning strategy. Short-term defined as minutes, hours, days, weeks is generally unwise because of the unpredictability.

Holy cow, you are dropping pearls here! Man, if people had only known this before, we'd all be rich! I think we should sticky this thread.

-copro

It was supposed to be a statement of obviousness. Too bad you were incapable of picking up on it.

 

[coprolalia]

It was supposed to be a statement of obviousness. Too bad you were incapable of picking up on it.

Don't worry. It's quite clear you have a profound grasp of what is already completely apparent to the rest of us. (Maybe if you didn't have those quotes in your sig line I'd be a little easier on you...)



-copro