If Russia invades

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Med Director New England

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Noticing a lot of big sweeps of put buying for multiple F500 companies this AM.

Seems the big boys are hedging a bit and protecting their stock positions.
Imo good opportunity to sell cash covered puts on stocks that you like, assuming you believe a Russian-Ukrainian skirmish won’t lead to WW3.

How far you all think the market pulls back if R invades.

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I think the markets will take a hit lasting several months, not just because of ukraine but everything else that is going on.

I’m thinking saner heads are going to prevail. All kinds of talks going on via diplomatic back channels.
 
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markets can do almost anything, but I would expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine to have almost no effect on American business profitability in the short or long term
 
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There was some data circulating about that showed the market bounces back generally a few weeks (or less) for something like this. As long as we do not get stuck in some prolonged, boots-on-the-ground situation, this will be a blip on the radar.
 
There was some data circulating about that showed the market bounces back generally a few weeks (or less) for something like this. As long as we do not get stuck in some prolonged, boots-on-the-ground situation, this will be a blip on the radar.

the boots on the ground won't be American so it doesn't particularly impact us here. I mean you might get a short term jump in price of oil, but that's about it.
 
This is time to buy, you will either come out ahead or it wouldn’t matter if this is ww3.
This was my thought as well. People are asking why I am going "all in" each month (DCA) if there's looming threat of WW3. My response was: either stocks will go up in the long-term per historical trend, or the world ends... either way I will be retired lmao!
 
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I think the markets will take a hit lasting several months, not just because of ukraine but everything else that is going on.

I’m thinking saner heads are going to prevail. All kinds of talks going on via diplomatic back channels.
Personally I'm hoping for a big slump so I can pile some money in. Everything is inflated beyond belief, P/Es have exploded beyond all semblance of sense.
 
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Personally I'm hoping for a big slump so I can pile some money in. Everything is inflated beyond belief, P/Es have exploded beyond all semblance of sense.

P/E ratio based on trailing earnings of S&P 500 is about 24 right now. It was pushing 40 in December of 2020. 24 is right within normal for the last 20-40 years or so compared to interest rates.
 
Russia invading Ukraine likely leads to one more flush in the Nasdaq and major indexes. That alone wont be a catalyst for WW3 as US won't significantly interfere.

Bigger wildcard is if China invades Taiwan, US has no choice but to intervene with military force as $TSM is arguably the most important company in the world. China controlling TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) would essentially make them the most dominant country in the world. Majority of the world's most advanced chips / microprocessors found in all advanced tech; everything from M1 processors for Apple to fighter jets for Lockheed Martin is produced by TSM. Market would limit down on any real fear of China invading Taiwan.

I personally believe slim chance of that happening. Thus I've been adding stocks the last few days in small tranches.
 
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Russia invading Ukraine likely leads to one more flush in the Nasdaq and major indexes. That alone wont be a catalyst for WW3 as US won't significantly interfere.

Bigger wildcard is if China invades Taiwan, US has no choice but to intervene with military force as $TSM is arguably the most important company in the world. China controlling TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) would essentially make them the most dominant country in the world. Majority of the world's most advanced chips / microprocessors found in all advanced tech; everything from M1 processors for Apple to fighter jets for Lockheed Martin is produced by TSM. Market would limit down on any real fear of China invading Taiwan.

I personally believe slim chance of that happening. Thus I've been adding stocks the last few days in small tranches.
My buddy (engineer @ marvel) says the same thing about Tiawan dominance of chip making / microprocessor
 
Noticing a lot of big sweeps of put buying for multiple F500 companies this AM.

Seems the big boys are hedging a bit and protecting their stock positions.
Imo good opportunity to sell cash covered puts on stocks that you like, assuming you believe a Russian-Ukrainian skirmish won’t lead to WW3.

How far you all think the market pulls back if R invades.
A Russia-Ukraine skirmish will lead to WWIII, but not now. The West failing to intervene will show China it has the opening to take Taiwan and various assets in the South China Sea, which will likely lead to the US getting dragged in, Russia siding with the Chinese and using the opportunity to try and reforge a new USSR, and Europe siding with those in its East.
 
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With the market down 9% over the last 3 months maybe a nice time to buy. And if you are tepid in doing this why not sell cash covered puts?
 
well it happened. time to buy.
Things will get worse, friend. This is just the beginning
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for the sake of updating, since this post was made > 1 month ago the S&P 500 is down approximately 0.9% (excluding dividends)
 
for the sake of updating, since this post was made > 1 month ago the S&P 500 is down approximately 0.9% (excluding dividends)
The handling of the situation by the international community has been exemplary. Basically the opposite of what happened with COVID. Things may very well end up fine after all
 
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