Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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BLADEMDA

BLADEMDA

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It looks like inflation will be much stickier for 2025 around 3-3.5% annual. The Fed won't be able to cut interest rates for 2025. DOGE and Musk need to find a trillion dollars in waste in order for the Trump tax proposals to make economic sense in terms of the budget. This puts pressure on the economy due to tariffs and govt. spending deficits. The 10 year treasury will end up staying in the 4.6-4.8 percent range keeping mortgage rates high.

IMHO, your personal plan should factor in longer term inflation at 3%, if not even 3.5%, to counter the cost of goods. Shopping at Walmart recently I noticed big prices for the average consumer on essential goods. The median salary of $85,000 is being squeezed due to inflation. Real wages aren't keeping up with costs. How about your personal situation? The way I see it fixed income investments need to be over 4% just to keep from losing purchasing power.
Stocks and equities offer the best chance to grow your money well above inflation.

Comments?

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I hoping for a 20% pull back in the stock market this year. The market needs to breathe.

Fed central bank rate will remain around 4.5%. Like you said fixed investments need to be around 4% to barely keep up.

Tarrifs won’t have much an effect as trump thinks. Look at the labels where your clothes are being made. I think china is playing 4D chess with the USA. They will ship items 99% made in china. And the third party countries will slap a “made in Vietnam” tag to complete the 100%. Thus is made in Vietnam officially and avoids the tarrifs.

Trump is not that smart. He needed to impose a world wide tariffs on all items coming into the USA. Too many loopholes for china.
 
Unfortunately. It's what happens when bad policy meets good marketing. I wonder how Maga folks will spin this. Every economist warned that his plan for tariffs and deporting the cheap labor force would just cause increased inflation

I am sure it's Bidens fault somehow?
 
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His way to go about things is placing big wedges in our closest international alliances. Doing this only makes China stronger as other countries look for new partners.
His game plan has a huge potential to backfire.
 
linkin06 said:
Tariffs and trade wars can’t help and we’re just starting.

House republicans proposed 4 trillion in tax cuts and 2 trillion in spending cuts. Even with that imaginary spending cut number, the math doesn’t math.
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Well if blue states would stop trying to circumvent the 10k salt tax limit. That was expected to generate up to 1 trillion more in tax revenue for the us govt. over 10 years

There are even cpa who routinely advertise ways to circumvent the 10k limit on salt tax’s which primarily affects the blue states

The republicans don’t touch Obamacare Medicare surtax and investments surtaxes cause it’s not indexed for inflation and becoming a huge cash cow for government tax Collections. 200k income is nothing anymore for the 0.9% Medicare surtax and the 3.8% investment surtax to kick in (250k for married couples)
 
linkin06 said:
Tariffs and trade wars can’t help and we’re just starting.

House republicans proposed 4 trillion in tax cuts and 2 trillion in spending cuts. Even with that imaginary spending cut number, the math doesn’t math.
Click to expand...
Yup.

It's amusing. Tax cuts for the rich, paid for by gutting social support programs and gutting medicaid.

Combine that with increases in prices due to inflation and tariffs? The poor and middle class will be getting steamrolled.

But hey, it's ok because they voted for him..
 
I don't have desire or plan to retire early.

I have a job that is tolerable/stable and as long as I stay healthy, can do for a long while that pays reasonably well for my specialty.

I am 100% equities for this reason since my horizon is 25 years.

But I basically max my tax advantaged accounts (403b/401k pretax, mega backdoor roth and regular backdoor ira).

Any major expenses or vacations I basically pay cash. Only debt I have is my mortgage but it is only 2.75% so pointless to pay early.

Slow and steady.
 
anonperson said:
I don't have desire or plan to retire early.

I have a job that is tolerable/stable and as long as I stay healthy, can do for a long while that pays reasonably well for my specialty.

I am 100% equities for this reason since my horizon is 25 years.

But I basically max my tax advantaged accounts (403b/401k pretax, mega backdoor roth and regular backdoor ira).

Any major expenses or vacations I basically pay cash. Only debt I have is my mortgage but it is only 2.75% so pointless to pay early.

Slow and steady.
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I am socking away large amount still in equities annually. But I am also keeping good amount in USFR treasuries. Buffett stacking cash too. Good to have stuff for a dip.
 
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The poor and middle class as a percentage of their income get a much bigger tax break than the rich.

You need to look a the chart where tax revenues come from. Pay attention to who actually pays federal taxes.

“
  • The average income tax rate in 2021 was 14.9 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.9 percent average rate, nearly eight times higher than the 3.3 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
  • The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
  • The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.”
taxfoundation.org

Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2024 Update

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) made many significant, but temporary, changes to the individual income tax code to lower tax rates, widen brackets, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and more.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org

You can tax the rich 100% and we still have problems.

When the bottom 50% are paying close to nothing in federal income taxes

Also remember the super rich do not have a cap on Medicare taxes either. They pay the vast majority of Medicare taxes.

Besides outright communism and taking all the rich money. What else do u want?
 
linkin06 said:
I am socking away large amount still in equities annually. But I am also keeping good amount in USFR treasuries. Buffett stacking cash too. Good to have stuff for a dip.
Click to expand...
Are you just keeping cash/cash equivalents to buy the dip or do you try to keep cash as an emergency fund?
 
aneftp said:
The poor and middle class as a percentage of their income get a much bigger tax break than the rich.

You need to look a the chart where tax revenues come from. Pay attention to who actually pays federal taxes.

“
  • The average income tax rate in 2021 was 14.9 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.9 percent average rate, nearly eight times higher than the 3.3 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
  • The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
  • The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.”
taxfoundation.org

Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2024 Update

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) made many significant, but temporary, changes to the individual income tax code to lower tax rates, widen brackets, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and more.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org

You can tax the rich 100% and we still have problems.

When the bottom 50% are paying close to nothing in federal income taxes

Also remember the super rich do not have a cap on Medicare taxes either. They pay the vast majority of Medicare taxes.

Besides outright communism and taking all the rich money. What else do u want?
Click to expand...

They want to tax the hell out of the middle and upper middle class.

Politicians view us as a never ending piggy bank.
 
aneftp said:
The poor and middle class as a percentage of their income get a much bigger tax break than the rich.

You need to look a the chart where tax revenues come from. Pay attention to who actually pays federal taxes.

“
  • The average income tax rate in 2021 was 14.9 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.9 percent average rate, nearly eight times higher than the 3.3 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
  • The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
  • The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.”
taxfoundation.org

Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2024 Update

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) made many significant, but temporary, changes to the individual income tax code to lower tax rates, widen brackets, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and more.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org

You can tax the rich 100% and we still have problems.

When the bottom 50% are paying close to nothing in federal income taxes

Also remember the super rich do not have a cap on Medicare taxes either. They pay the vast majority of Medicare taxes.

Besides outright communism and taking all the rich money. What else do u want?
Click to expand...
Yes, but tariffs and inflation hit them much harder based on a percentage of their income.

If you make 50k per year, a tax break will barely help you at all. But given that most love paycheck to paycheck...that extra $200 for a washer and dryer is much harder for them than for Jeff Bezos.

And then when their Medicaid and food stamps get cut, along with their housing support, all to fund a tax break that won't net them much at all..they will get hosed.

The actual dollars gained and lost means a lot more than the percentage when you are poor/middle glass. Comparing percentages is just a gimmick that the rich use to defend themselves
 
UscGhost said:
Yes, but tariffs and inflation hit them much harder based on a percentage of their income.

If you make 50k per year, a tax break will barely help you at all. But given that most love paycheck to paycheck...that extra $200 for a washer and dryer is much harder for them than for Jeff Bezos.

And then when their Medicaid and food stamps get cut, along with their housing support, all to fund a tax break that won't net them much at all..they will get hosed.

The actual dollars gained and lost means a lot more than the percentage when you are poor/middle glass. Comparing percentages is just a gimmick that the rich use to defend themselves
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It will always be that argument. Nothing taxes going up or down for the rich will change that argument.

You can run every calculator you want.

As for using percentages as gimmicks. The liberals use percentages when it suits their objectives.

40% of this country do not pay any federal taxes. The only taxes they pay is Medicare and social security taxes. And even that is very little

What you are really wanting is universal basic income but I’m not sure this works as many who pay no federal income taxes ready have NEGATIVE INCOME tax rates (due to refundable tax credits). The net income for them would be the same

I don’t have an answer to fixing lower income people. There is no good solution. But I know transferring all of bezos and musk and gates money doesn’t do anything to help the poor.
 
aneftp said:
Well if blue states would stop trying to circumvent the 10k salt tax limit. That was expected to generate up to 1 trillion more in tax revenue for the us govt. over 10 years

There are even cpa who routinely advertise ways to circumvent the 10k limit on salt tax’s which primarily affects the blue states

The republicans don’t touch Obamacare Medicare surtax and investments surtaxes cause it’s not indexed for inflation and becoming a huge cash cow for government tax Collections. 200k income is nothing anymore for the 0.9% Medicare surtax and the 3.8% investment surtax to kick in (250k for married couples)
Click to expand...

Very few people qualify for SALT tax limit workarounds. Maybe a few of your rich friends with S corps do it, but the vast majority of the working and middle class people are not doing any workarounds. Were you that gullible when you believed that the SALT tax cap was going to generate $1 trillion?
 
aneftp said:
It will always be that argument. Nothing taxes going up or down for the rich will change that argument.

You can run every calculator you want.

As for using percentages as gimmicks. The liberals use percentages when it suits their objectives.

40% of this country do not pay any federal taxes. The only taxes they pay is Medicare and social security taxes. And even that is very little

What you are really wanting is universal basic income but I’m not sure this works as many who pay no federal income taxes ready have NEGATIVE INCOME tax rates (due to refundable tax credits). The net income for them would be the same

I don’t have an answer to fixing lower income people. There is no good solution. But I know transferring all of bezos and musk and gates money doesn’t do anything to help the poor.
Click to expand...
That depends on what your goal is as a society.

If the goal is to maximize the quality of life for everyone, then the goal should should be to maximally improve the quality of life for the poor and middle class while minimally reducing the quality of life for the rich. And no it's not communism. The wealthy can afford a 5% tax increase with absolutely zero affect on their lives while it would have a significantly meaningful impact to divert those funds to the poor and middle class. Same at 6% ,7% etc. There would be an inflection point at some level of course. It's just a smart way to run a society

If your goal is to allow the rich to further increase their wealth while diverting funds from the poor, ie Trump's tax plan, then it's proving to be successful.

If the goal is to allow the free market to dictate everything...well it's not a true free market and the wealthy wield a disproportionate amount of influence over making the rules. So the rich will further increase their wealth.
 
UscGhost said:
If your goal is to allow the rich to further increase their wealth while diverting funds from the poor, ie Trump's tax plan, then it's proving to be successful.
Click to expand...
What have you seen on the news about it?

What I have seen is they plan to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime and social security. Seems opposite to what you portray.

And they want to close some loophole on billionaire sport teams owners.
 
urge said:
What have you seen on the news about it?

What I have seen is they plan to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime and social security. Seems opposite to what you portray.

And they want to close some loophole on billionaire sport teams owners.
Click to expand...

Tax cuts are fine in theory. How do you pay for trillions in tax cuts?

Medicare, defense, Medicaid, social programs, or massively increase debt

Pick a card

Cutting "waste and fraud" is a pipe dream. They say it every election. It's a rounding error in the overall budget
 
linkin06 said:
I am socking away large amount still in equities annually. But I am also keeping good amount in USFR treasuries. Buffett stacking cash too. Good to have stuff for a dip.
Click to expand...
It's nice to have 10% set aside for dips or emergencies but nothing wrong with 100% equities if you have a 20+ year horizon ahead. You should have a 6 month emergency fund set aside at all times.
 
UscGhost said:
That depends on what your goal is as a society.

If the goal is to maximize the quality of life for everyone, then the goal should should be to maximally improve the quality of life for the poor and middle class while minimally reducing the quality of life for the rich. And no it's not communism. The wealthy can afford a 5% tax increase with absolutely zero affect on their lives while it would have a significantly meaningful impact to divert those funds to the poor and middle class. Same at 6% ,7% etc. There would be an inflection point at some level of course. It's just a smart way to run a society

If your goal is to allow the rich to further increase their wealth while diverting funds from the poor, ie Trump's tax plan, then it's proving to be successful.

If the goal is to allow the free market to dictate everything...well it's not a true free market and the wealthy wield a disproportionate amount of influence over making the rules. So the rich will further increase their wealth.
Click to expand...
The wealthy already end up paying 4.7% more with Obamacare taxes (0.9% plus 3.8%)

What more do you want.
The salt 10k tax limits are actually a tax generator for the us govt. my friends in California pay somewhere between 70-100k in California state income taxes and 40k in property taxes for their homes.
Trump doubling the personal exemption to 30k this year for married couples does not off set the deductions they lose to the salt limit.

How much in taxes do you want to pay?

We have a population problem in the USA to support The sheer number of people needed to support what you want to run is more than any other country in the world.

Look at other countries. Most of the Europeans countries have population between 20-80 million people. Let’s say you have a 10% population in poverty. It’s easier to support 2-4 million in poverty with govt services. Now as the populations depend. Say Germany which has 80-90 million. There is a lot of backlash trying to support poor people. You see some of it in the news media.

But talk to actual people. Like my German colleagues. They explained it to me. The immigration over the years into Germany of foreign nationals has drastically impacted social services.

I’m just using one example.

Now you take the USA. Its population is 330 million. The only countries with large populations (100 million plus) with the exception of the Japanese. Every other country cannot support its poor. Just way too many people to support. It’s a sheer numbers game the govt services cannot support.
 
BLADEMDA said:
It's nice to have 10% set aside for dips or emergencies but nothing wrong with 100% equities if you have a 20+ year horizon ahead. You should have a 6 month emergency fund set aside at all times.
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I have $400 in my checking account/ at this time combined in my 5 checking accounts. I keep no cash. And I gotta pay the cleaning people $200 on Monday.

My 6 month emergency fund is interest free credit card with amex business blue or home equity line of credit

Now if I really needed the money I would sell my taxable stocks in my brokerage but I’m in the process of selling most of them as I shift everything into Roth the next 5-7 years to enter the final stages of asset protection.
 
aneftp said:
my friends in California pay somewhere between 70-100k in California state income taxes and 40k in property taxes for their homes.
Click to expand...

Did they recently buy $4mil homes? If so good for them. Most people in $4mil homes have been in them for a while and don’t pay 40k/year in property taxes. And if they’re paying 100k in state income tax, also good for them because their AGI is 1mil/year.
 
Last edited:
W2 people get screwed for 1099. Lots of 1099’ers I know (drs and non drs) very much abuse the system and write off bull****…. And pay their stupid spouses to be “bookkeepers.” The “legalized” fraud is rampant and ridiculous.
National sales tax, flat tax - I’m open to other solutions - simplifying solutions - there is too much reward under our current system for people that game the system. I’m speaking mostly of business owners - many of my husbands friends are private pilots - the abuse is endless - plane depreciation avoids paying taxes for years. Ridiculous.
 
nimbus said:
Did they recently buy $4mil homes? If so good for them. Most people in $4mil homes have been in them for a while and don’t pay 40k/year in property taxes. And if they’re paying 100k in state income tax, also good for them because their AGI is 1mil/year.
Click to expand...
Very complicated with prop 13. Similar to Florida that limits property tax increases.

But home was tear down so reassessed.
 
I hope this doesn't become political as some already want to push it that way. If you want to be political, there is a thread you can bash everything DJT does already.

As to Ops question, No one really knows what will happen. People predict recessions, but stocks go to all time high. I have been hearing how hot the market is and will have a correction for the past 2-3 years.

Put you money in, DCA, and you will do well on the other side.

No matter who controls POTUS, , or Congress; the ultra rich (top 1%) will always do well no matter the economy. The Poor will do the same. The middle class/upper middle class are the ones who bear most of the taxation.

Let me explain and let me tell you what I plan on doing. I have about 5-7M in RE equity. I have Line of credits with the bank. My income mostly is K1 so I get to write things off you could only imagine.

So if my K1 income is 1M, I am going to write off 500K in some form/fashion. The W2s making 1M gets to pay taxes on the whole 1M. So my 1M effectively is around 850K in my pocket. W2 would effectively have 700K.
When I finally hang things up and need money, I will refinance my properties and pull out 500K if I want paying zero taxes plus have a write off on rental income. A W2 worker who hangs it up, would need to pull $$$ out of his IRAs paying taxes.

Take away for high income docs. Figure out how to become the 1% without doing W2 work.
 
amyl said:
W2 people get screwed for 1099. Lots of 1099’ers I know (drs and non drs) very much abuse the system and write off bull****…. And pay their stupid spouses to be “bookkeepers.” The “legalized” fraud is rampant and ridiculous.
National sales tax, flat tax - I’m open to other solutions - simplifying solutions - there is too much reward under our current system for people that game the system. I’m speaking mostly of business owners - many of my husbands friends are private pilots - the abuse is endless - plane depreciation avoids paying taxes for years. Ridiculous.
Click to expand...
No the geniuses in charge have decides that defunding the funding mechanism of the country is the best move. I loved the idea of more people working for the IRS so they would actually answer the phones and fight fraud. Oh well.
 
emergentmd said:
I hope this doesn't become political as some already want to push it that way. If you want to be political, there is a thread you can bash everything DJT does already.

As to Ops question, No one really knows what will happen. People predict recessions, but stocks go to all time high. I have been hearing how hot the market is and will have a correction for the past 2-3 years.

Put you money in, DCA, and you will do well on the other side.

No matter who controls POTUS, , or Congress; the ultra rich (top 1%) will always do well no matter the economy. The Poor will do the same. The middle class/upper middle class are the ones who bear most of the taxation.

Let me explain and let me tell you what I plan on doing. I have about 5-7M in RE equity. I have Line of credits with the bank. My income mostly is K1 so I get to write things off you could only imagine.

So if my K1 income is 1M, I am going to write off 500K in some form/fashion. The W2s making 1M gets to pay taxes on the whole 1M. So my 1M effectively is around 850K in my pocket. W2 would effectively have 700K.
When I finally hang things up and need money, I will refinance my properties and pull out 500K if I want paying zero taxes plus have a write off on rental income. A W2 worker who hangs it up, would need to pull $$$ out of his IRAs paying taxes.

Take away for high income docs. Figure out how to become the 1% without doing W2 work.
Click to expand...
I will play devils advocate. The us govt depends on the middle and upper middle class for tax collections. No question about that.

Completely agree once you get past around 250k as single person and 500k as married person as w2. The taxes get crazy. That’s the way the tax code is written. That’s why some docs who work at state institutions married with stay at home moms and access to up to 100k pretax deferral don’t pay that much in taxes on 500k w2 income. and its a better deal for them than 1099. So everyone is different what works for them.

No one wants to make one million as w2 doc (unless they are grossly overpaid to do no work….like non clinical docs). Than I wouldn’t mind getting 1 million w2 to not do work.

You can play around a lot as self employed but there are only so many autobiography range rovers you can buy or strip joints in Vegas with stormy Daniels to write off. People get creative putting their teens on the payroll, putting tax deferred (or Roth) money into accounts. Than paying for their college education with pretax dollars from their business accounts (to benefit the business )

But the wealthy don’t even need to do that. It’s their passive income that grows. My neighbor lends out money from his retirement account and gets between 300-400k each year all tax sheltered. That’s how rich rolls. He’s been retired since age 46. He’s 64 now. Looks way younger than his age. Super fit. Cause he hasn’t had to work in 20 years.
 
UscGhost said:

Tax cuts are fine in theory. How do you pay for trillions in tax cuts?

Medicare, defense, Medicaid, social programs, or massively increase debt

Pick a card

Cutting "waste and fraud" is a pipe dream. They say it every election. It's a rounding error in the overall budget
Click to expand...
Your problem is your getting your info from Politico.

Did you find out about the Politico nonsense going on?

Read real news my fellow anesthesiologist.
 
aneftp said:
But the wealthy don’t even need to do that. It’s their passive income that grows. My neighbor lends out money from his retirement account and gets between 300-400k each year all tax sheltered. That’s how rich rolls. He’s been retired since age 46. He’s 64 now. Looks way younger than his age. Super fit. Cause he hasn’t had to work in 20 years.
Click to expand...
Tell me about this.

How is it done?
 
Dr. Rude said:
“Aggressive” interpretations of tax law. Some might us another word.
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No. Vanguard even offers this option. It’s legal. I forgot what it’s called. It’s totally legit

I found the link before. Lots of companies offer this.
 
aneftp said:
No. Vanguard even offers this option. It’s legal. I forgot what it’s called. It’s totally legit

I found the link before. Lots of companies offer this.
Click to expand...
Pretty amazing if the returns on loaning out your retirement are more than just withdrawing from retirement as it grows.
 
urge said:
Your problem is your getting your info from Politico.

Did you find out about the Politico nonsense going on?

Read real news my fellow anesthesiologist.
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It's based on a the public house GOP document. You can find it anywhere.

And besides it's a simple math problem. If you drop revenue then you need to drop spending.

The only major sources of spending are defense, medicare, social security and social programs (Medicaid, welfare, etc)

So if you have to make up for 100s of billions of lost revenue..you have to massively gut something. So are we gutting medicaid and food stamps so that we can give Jeff Bezos another mega yacht
 
urge said:
Tell me about this.

How is it done?
Click to expand...
Found it. Other financial firms offer similar programs

“ I lend mine to the owners of agencies at globe life and charge 9.25 %”. That’s how he makes 300k gurantee revenue stream and he’s in his 60s

investor.vanguard.com

Unlock Income with Fully Paid Lending | Vanguard

Fully paid lending offers a strategic way to boost your investment income. Enroll now to have your securities earn for you while maintaining control.
investor.vanguard.com
 
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aneftp said:
I have $[emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]] in my checking account/ at this time combined in my [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]] checking accounts. I keep no cash. And I gotta pay the cleaning people $[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]] on Monday.

My [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]] month emergency fund is interest free credit card with amex business blue or home equity line of credit

Now if I really needed the money I would sell my taxable stocks in my brokerage but I’m in the process of selling most of them as I shift everything into Roth the next [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]] years to enter the final stages of asset protection.
Click to expand...

I don’t understand this salt complaint. Before Trump tax, I always got hit with AMT. Salt deduction is irrelevant.

Your rich California friends with 100k+ state tax and 50k plus property tax did not hit AMT? Or their incomes were so high and above AMT upper threshold?
 
aneftp said:
Found it. Other financial firms offer similar programs

“ I lend mine to the owners of agencies at globe life and charge 9.25 %”. That’s how he makes 300k gurantee revenue stream and he’s in his 60s

investor.vanguard.com

Unlock Income with Fully Paid Lending | Vanguard

Fully paid lending offers a strategic way to boost your investment income. Enroll now to have your securities earn for you while maintaining control.
investor.vanguard.com
Click to expand...
Oh!

Thats nonsense. I registered one of my brokerage accounts to the lending program and have never received a cent.

He is not making any money that way.
 
UscGhost said:
It's based on a the public house GOP document. You can find it anywhere.

And besides it's a simple math problem. If you drop revenue then you need to drop spending.

The only major sources of spending are defense, medicare, social security and social programs (Medicaid, welfare, etc)

So if you have to make up for 100s of billions of lost revenue..you have to massively gut something. So are we gutting medicaid and food stamps so that we can give Jeff Bezos another mega yacht
Click to expand...
I don’t think you understand how a government that prints its own money works.

Finances don’t work like a household. Totally different game. Revenue doesn’t matter. What’s matters is keeping inflationary and deflationary forces in balance, unless the intent is to steer into a certain direction.

The plan now is to cut crazy expenses and fraud via the DOGE, which is deflationary. Have you heard the news that houses in Washington DC are over 10% down in one month already? That’s the DOGE trimming the fat. Didn’t take long to cause deflation close to the source.

It is expected taxes will be cut to lower and middle class via no tax on tips, over time, and social security, which is inflationary.

It’s just a matter of who prevails, deflationary forces versus inflationary. I think there so much corruption that if it gets tackled fully we should expect deflation even with lower taxes on lower and middle class.

As for businesses, tariffs will make business more expensive either from imports or from more expensive American production. But then they are supposed to get a tax cut (5% maybe?) which helps ease the tariffs. Might be a zero sum game for businesses. Time will tell. But there will likely be more Americans with decent jobs and disposable income.
 
Last edited:
urge said:
Oh!

Thats nonsense. I registered one of my brokerage accounts to the lending program and have never received a cent.

He is not making any money that way.
Click to expand...
He uses a smaller boutique company to do it. Called pension corp. This guy knows what’s he’s doing. He’s not some random stranger to me to be pulling my strings.

Been to mutiple basketball games with him. Kids same age so go over to his house. He’s down the street from the dude who has the largest injury firm in the USA. These guys are the ones who play real financial chess. We are playing checkers with our finances.

I don’t mess with any of this yet.

But it’s not “nonsense”. And yes. He makes a ton of money passively and this is just one of many ways he makes money….without hard labor that we do.
 
aneftp said:
He uses a smaller boutique company to do it. Called pension corp. This guy knows what’s he’s doing. He’s not some random stranger to me to be pulling my strings.

Been to mutiple basketball games with him. Kids same age so go over to his house. He’s down the street from the dude who has the largest injury firm in the USA. These guys are the ones who play real financial chess. We are playing checkers with our finances.

I don’t mess with any of this yet.

But it’s not “nonsense”. And yes. He makes a ton of money passively and this is just one of many ways he makes money….without hard labor that we do.
Click to expand...
I don’t buy it.

It’s not on you, so don’t get offended. But I don’t think he is being honest with his story.
 
urge said:
I don’t buy it.

It’s not on you, so don’t get offended. But I don’t think he is being honest with his story.
Click to expand...
You sound like my sister. She’s so skeptical of so many things. I’m not offended. Takes lot to offend me.

Anyways. I only give out advice on what I know. It’s very legit. Go on boggle heads they discuss it also.
E trade and fidelity offer similar programs. You do make money. This guy I know is just on another stratosphere with money. Those guys talk about making a couple of thousand off the program. And I’m sure they aren’t on the same level of the guy know financially. We talk about making 500-700k in 2025. This guy was making 600k in the 1980s. While in his 20s selling life insurance, than has his on agency and sold it.


 
the-messed-up-uk-tax-system-v0-k7afy598awjd1.png
SR_23.04.07_Taxes_1.png

Kind of interesting charts

Worth noting the UK (and most European countries) tax the heck out of the middle class. Remember on top of income tax they also pay far higher excise taxes on fuel (7-9 dollars a gallon) and they have 20% VAT on most goods.

The US is already pretty progressive with taxation (certainly an argument for more brackets at extreme incomes, and maybe for treating capital gains the same as income), but the overall size of the government is relatively small which means benefits for poor people are also relatively small. Realistically we could expand benefits dramatically, but not without hiking taxes on the middle class (as virtually all other countries have done).
 
Last edited:
<(^_^)> said:
the-messed-up-uk-tax-system-v0-k7afy598awjd1.png
SR_23.04.07_Taxes_1.png

Kind of interesting charts

Worth noting the UK (and most European countries) tax the heck out of the middle class. Remember on top of income tax they also pay far higher excise taxes on fuel (7-9 dollars a gallon) and they have 20% VAT on most goods.

The US is already pretty progressive with taxation (certainly an argument for more brackets at extreme incomes, and maybe for treating capital gains the same as income), but the overall size of the government is relatively small which means benefits for poor people are also relatively small. Realistically we could expand benefits dramatically, but not without hiking taxes on the middle class (as virtually all other countries have done).
Click to expand...
“Expand benefits” without hiking taxes on the middle clas

Think what you wrote. How can you hike taxes when the lower 40% of the entire USA population effectively pay zero federal taxes?

And look at the uk. Everyone’s effective tax rate is double. Everyone meaning poorer people are paying double. If we want to advance as a society. Everyone must pitch in

Mutiple calculations have been run where you can take the super rich 100% and it won’t make a dent in the federal deficit. You can tax the rich infinitely with no cap on social security and it won’t help. Becuase there aren’t enough of them to bleed money from. Sure you can get a one time bump in revenue. Than what? Look at retro active taxes that nail the rich various taxes like California where tax laws passed in November by voters make wealthier people more taxed retroactive to Jan 1 of that year (1994 Supreme Court ruling allowed that retroactive taxes to be collected from laws not even passed). California gets a small bump in tax revenue for that year. Than the rich evade it the next year
It’s a cat and mouse game.

And when push comes to shove. You tax the heck out of the rich. Guess what else they will do just like the rich Europeans. They will just move to entities like Monaco and renounce their USA citizenship like the Facebook co founder Eduardo Saverin who’s in Singapore to avoid massive USA taxes.
 
aneftp said:
“Expand benefits” without hiking taxes on the middle clas

Think what you wrote. How can you hike taxes when the lower 40% of the entire USA population effectively pay zero federal taxes?

And look at the uk. Everyone’s effective tax rate is double. Everyone meaning poorer people are paying double. If we want to advance as a society. Everyone must pitch in

Mutiple calculations have been run where you can take the super rich 100% and it won’t make a dent in the federal deficit. You can tax the rich infinitely with no cap on social security and it won’t help. Becuase there aren’t enough of them to bleed money from. Sure you can get a one time bump in revenue. Than what? Look at retro active taxes that nail the rich various taxes like California where tax laws passed in November by voters make wealthier people more taxed retroactive to Jan 1 of that year (1994 Supreme Court ruling allowed that retroactive taxes to be collected from laws not even passed). California gets a small bump in tax revenue for that year. Than the rich evade it the next year
It’s a cat and mouse game.

And when push comes to shove. You tax the heck out of the rich. Guess what else they will do just like the rich Europeans. They will just move to entities like Monaco and renounce their USA citizenship like the Facebook co founder Eduardo Saverin who’s in Singapore to avoid massive USA taxes.
Click to expand...
Read what I wrote 🙂. We could expand benefits, but not without taxing the middle class a lot more.

<(^_^)> said:
The US is already pretty progressive with taxation (certainly an argument for more brackets at extreme incomes, and maybe for treating capital gains the same as income), but the overall size of the government is relatively small which means benefits for poor people are also relatively small. Realistically we could expand benefits dramatically, but not without hiking taxes on the middle class (as virtually all other countries have done).
Click to expand...
 
aneftp said:
“Expand benefits” without hiking taxes on the middle clas

Think what you wrote. How can you hike taxes when the lower 40% of the entire USA population effectively pay zero federal taxes?

And look at the uk. Everyone’s effective tax rate is double. Everyone meaning poorer people are paying double. If we want to advance as a society. Everyone must pitch in

Mutiple calculations have been run where you can take the super rich 100% and it won’t make a dent in the federal deficit. You can tax the rich infinitely with no cap on social security and it won’t help. Becuase there aren’t enough of them to bleed money from. Sure you can get a one time bump in revenue. Than what? Look at retro active taxes that nail the rich various taxes like California where tax laws passed in November by voters make wealthier people more taxed retroactive to Jan 1 of that year (1994 Supreme Court ruling allowed that retroactive taxes to be collected from laws not even passed). California gets a small bump in tax revenue for that year. Than the rich evade it the next year
It’s a cat and mouse game.

And when push comes to shove. You tax the heck out of the rich. Guess what else they will do just like the rich Europeans. They will just move to entities like Monaco and renounce their USA citizenship like the Facebook co founder Eduardo Saverin who’s in Singapore to avoid massive USA taxes.
Click to expand...
All nonsense.

You think a guy who's is worth 40 billion would leave the country because he didn't want to pay 60 million in taxes? That's chump change to him. Would you move to Singapore because you didn't want to pay $500 in cap gains?

www.latimes.com

Uncle Sam, say goodbye to Eduardo Saverin and $67 million in taxes

Uncle Sam, say goodbye to Eduardo Saverin and $67 million in taxes
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com

He left because he is Brazilian and his wife is Indonesian. He wanted to live there anyways.

Furthermore, a tax on the super wealthy would generate 100s of billions annually. Can't evade federal taxes like you can with state taxes. This would go a long way towards addressing the budget.

Certainly can't tackle the debt without a tax increase. Ideally it's best to increase it on those who domain afford it. Spending and entitlements need cuts.

It's amazing to be how many poor and middle class folks seem to want to protect the rich at their own expense
 
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