I'm not sure how it can go down, since more people were left unmatched than the year before. Most of those people are going to try again, so unless there are a significant change in the 1st time applicants, I'd think it'd be the same or higher.
There was actually a decrease in the number of total applicants for the match this year, however I don't believe that provides the true picture because many of those applicants may have sought out unacred. internships instead of re-applying. Here are the 2009 stats thus far, with my bolding and comments in red.
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As of December 31, 2009, the total numbers of applicants and internship sites registered to participate in the 2010 APPIC Match were:
-
3,721 registered applicants (excludes 16 who registered but
subsequently withdrew)
-
3,157 positions offered by
690 registered internship sites
(658 of these registered sites are APPIC members)
APPIC member sites
These numbers reflect a DECREASE of 31 applicants and an INCREASE of 21 positions as compared to last year at this time. Furthermore, the number of participating internship sites has increased by 3, representing 3 fewer APPIC-member sites and 6 more non-member sites as compared to last year.
IMPORTANT NOTE: These numbers change daily and are only a "snapshot" as of December 31 of each year. The final numbers of participating sites and applicants will be significantly different from those presented above. In each of the past eleven years,
more than 200 applicants withdrew from the Match after registering. Assuming that trend continues into this year, we estimate that approximately 3,500 to 3,600 applicants will ultimately submit Rank Order Lists for the 2010 Match.
Using the current numbers, 564 people will not be able to secure a position if every site fills every spot. Even if the pre-match attrition trend continues, there will still probably be at least 500 people who won't secure a position. Keep in mind included in those 690 sites and 3,157 spots there are unacreditted and/or unpaid spots. Here is a snapshot from 2008-2009 breaking down the funding and acredidation numbers.
The table below presents the registration numbers from the past twelve years (since the APPIC Match was initiated), as of December 31 of each year, along with the change from the previous year:
APPIC MATCH REGISTRATION NUMBERS AS OF DECEMBER 31
..................---Applicants--- ---Positions--- ---Sites-----
.....................Reg.....Chg..... Reg.....Chg.....Reg.....Chg
================ =============== ===============
Dec 31, 1998 3,090.............2,659...............609
Dec 31, 1999 3,127.....+37...2,773....+114....623.....+14
Dec 31, 2000 3,172.....+45...2,771.......-2.....625......+2
Dec 31, 2001 3,030....-142...2,766.......-5.....617......-8
Dec 31, 2002 3,136....+106...2,774......+8.....619......+2
Dec 31, 2003 3,218......+82...2,753.....-21.....628.....+9
Dec 31, 2004 3,350....+132...2,778.....+25.....621......-7
Dec 31, 2005 3,422......+72...2,811.....+33....630......+9
Dec 31, 2006 3,611....+189...2,904.....+93.....641....+11
Dec 31, 2007 3,665......+54...3,057...+153.....666....+25
Dec 31, 2008 3,752......+87...3,136.....+79.....687....+21
Dec 31, 2009 3,721......-31...3,157.....+21.....690......+3
This table speaks to the growth of applicants and sites, but not to the impact of the growth. I'd be curious to see how many of the positions are from APA/CPA (Canada) approved programs, in addition to how many applicants have skipped the match all together and sought out non-APA/CPA/APPIC acred. positions. I believe it is a far worse picture if you include all of the graduate students who will eventually seek licensure, versus just those graduate students who apply for the APPIC match.
For comparison purposes, here are the final numbers of participating applicants and programs from each of the ten previous APPIC Matches (note that the numbers are as of Match Day in February for each year, rather than for the preceding December 31, and reflect only the applicants who actually submitted Rank Order Lists):
NUMBER OF PARTICIPATING APPLICANTS AND INTERNSHIP POSITIONS
IN PREVIOUS APPIC MATCHES
Applicants Positions Difference
1999 Match 2,923 2,631 -292
2000 Match 2,957 2,713 -244
2001 Match 2,947 2,763 -184
2002 Match 2,842 2,752 -90
2003 Match 2,963 2,718 -245
2004 Match 3,039 2,732 -307
2005 Match 3,117 2,757 -360
2006 Match 3,210 2,779 -431
2007 Match 3,430 2,884 -546
2008 Match 3,492 3,058 -434
2009 Match 3,598 3,051 -547
Additional statistics from previous matches can be found at
www.appic.org -- click on "Match Statistics."
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Thoughts?