Interview -> Acceptance chances?

Started by mariposas905
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mariposas905

mariposas905

Full Member
5+ Year Member
Hi everyone! Posting here towards the end of the cycle to see what my chances might be to get in. My stats are not super high, but I've been pretty surprised with my interview invites so far. At this point, I still do not have an acceptance however and am curious about my chances at this point. For average applicants (in terms of stats, interviewing skills, etc), how many interviews usually lead to at least one MD acceptance? Is there a good chance for me to get an outright acceptance in the coming months (instead of a WL)? I have not heard anything except one waitlist from one of my interviews. Thanks 🙂
 
I think the saying is “1 in 3 for MD”, meaning for every 3 interviews the average applicant usually gets one acceptance. Obviously some people have better odds and others have worse depending on their interview and app.
 
jordij94 said:
I think the saying is “1 in 3 for MD”, meaning for every 3 interviews the average applicant usually gets one acceptance. Obviously some people have better odds and others have worse depending on their interview and app.
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I hope my interviews were good then or at least enough to get me in!
 
mariposas905 said:
Hi everyone! Posting here towards the end of the cycle to see what my chances might be to get in. My stats are not super high, but I've been pretty surprised with my interview invites so far. At this point, I still do not have an acceptance however and am curious about my chances at this point. For average applicants (in terms of stats, interviewing skills, etc), how many interviews usually lead to at least one MD acceptance? Is there a good chance for me to get an outright acceptance in the coming months (instead of a WL)? I have not heard anything except one waitlist from one of my interviews. Thanks 🙂
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Using MSAR data you will find that most medical schools will interview between 10-20% of their applicants and will matriculate between 1-4% of their applicants. Colloquially, the story goes that schools on average send out twice as many acceptances as seats, they really between 2-8% of applicants get an acceptance. So anywhere from a 10% to an 80% post-interview acceptance rate based just on math alone - meaning that, in reality your true answer is very school specific, but because the average of 45% tells me that almost all students would get an interview (which just isn’t true) so I would lean closer to the higher end of that range.
 
Master Thinker said:
Yeah the wait is the worst. But there really is no way to tell how things will go. I got accepted by schools where the interview went kinda meh but waitlisted at schools where I thought I did really well.
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Yeah the wait is terrible. I mean, I got interviews but I'm worried that they're going to look at my stats again afterwards and waitlist me because of that. I'd like to think my stats aren't the problem if I got the II in the first place, but you never know what goes on behind admission doors lol some of my interviews felt meh too, but I tried to do my best
 
I’m feeling ya. I’m Still waiting to hear back from my IIs. All I know is that I’m above average in terms of stats. Hopefully my perceived mistakes during my interview hasn’t blown my chances! Gonna have to indulge on other things to make time go by faster.
 
MSAR gives you a pretty good idea of the post interview acceptance rate

Look at the number of matriculants, double it, and then divide this number by how many interviewees there are.

Adjust accordingly for each school if you are IS or OOS since some schools accept far more IS applicants
 
stairway2seven said:
Look at the number of matriculants, double it, and then divide this number by how many interviewees there are.
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Some schools accept less than 2 per seat and others more than 3 per seat. So this would have a near 50% error margin.

I would also argue that if a school accepts an X number of applicants and interviews a Y number of applicants, the true post II rate is less than just X/Y because some students withdraw between their interview and getting a final decision.

I remember @LizzyM posting that sometimes the waitlist at a particular school can cut itself down by as much as three-fourths before an acceptance is granted off the waitlist simply because of withdrawals. So I don’t think X/Y has any meaning if so many applicants withdrew (especially since those applicants had other acceptances so they were objectively more desirable than those that stayed on the waitlist and likely had a higher chance of getting of the waitlist at the school they were waitlisted at).
 
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ClamShell said:
Some schools accept less than 2 per seat and others more than 3 per seat. So this would have a near 50% error margin.

I would also argue that if a school accepts an X number of applicants and interviews a Y number of applicants, the true post II rate is less than just X/Y because some students withdraw between their interview and getting a final decision.

I remember @LizzyM posting that sometimes the waitlist at a particular school can cut itself down by as much as three-fourths before an acceptance is granted off the waitlist simply because of withdrawals. So I don’t think X/Y has any meaning if so many applicants withdrew (especially since those applicants had other acceptances so they were objectively more desirable than those that stayed on the waitlist and likely had a higher chance of getting of the waitlist at the school they were waitlisted at).
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Crushed my hopes . Sad face.
 
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