Is 8 million dollars sufficient to retire?

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DrCommonSense

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How much money is necessary to retire for one at any earlier age or cut down to part time?

Do you think 8 million dollars is sufficient to retire at a younger age (late 30s to 40s) or work part time?

What investments would you make to preserve capital and produce sufficient dividends?

Is the market too inflated whereby stock investments will collapse to decrease capital in the future whereby cash flow is compromised in the future?

Also, would you recommend leaving medicine for a nonclinical position to limit malpractice risk in the future if money isn't in a trust?

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It depends on what you spend. I would be fine at 3 million in accounts, but would probably make the wife work.

Doesnt matter without knowing your risk tolerance and spending.

Nope, but ties in with spending.

Insurance is for risks like malpractice, not more work.
 
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How much money is necessary to retire for one at any earlier age or cut down to part time?

Do you think 8 million dollars is sufficient to retire at a younger age (late 30s to 40s) or work part time?

What investments would you make to preserve capital and produce sufficient dividends?

Is the market too inflated whereby stock investments will collapse to decrease capital in the future whereby cash flow is compromised in the future?

Also, would you recommend leaving medicine for a nonclinical position to limit malpractice risk in the future if money isn't in a trust?
What you are asking about is known today as The Number, or how much money you would need in the bank to stop working and still maintain your chosen lifestyle.

When your money is invested properly, a pile of money will generally have a Safe Withdrawal Rate of 4% per year, forever. Meaning, your investments will grow at (inflation + 4%), so you can withdraw 4% of your assets every year, and the dollar amount will grow with inflation so it maintains that standard of living (constant dollars) forever even after you die.

This isn't some idle theory- I worked out this math last century when the solution was less understood and the tools necessary were more difficult to access for the common investor. It was called FU money back then, e.g. enough money to be able to tell your boss or anybody else FU with minimal consequences. After figuring out the theory I worked very hard (not in medicine) to achieve the desired result, and I reached my own Number in the 1990s. I have faithfully sold 1% of my assets every quarter since then and lived off the proceeds. I've survived several recessions and other economic busts, rode out many bull markets, and I check my portfolio's performance about once every two years. I have no idea if the market is up or down right now. Yet today nearly 2 decades later I maintain the same satisfactory standard of living that I had when I quit working.

So to answer your questions in order, the amount of money you need will be highly dependent on what kind of lifestyle you will want to maintain when you quit. Everybody's Number is different. I have met a woman living satisfactorily on $6,000 a year (1990 constant dollars). I have some friends who are unhappy living on $25,000 a month and need more.

8 million 2017 dollars will throw off a lifestyle of $320,000 per year, in 2017 constant dollars, forever. Is that enough for you? Only you can answer that question. It would be enough for me, but my needs and wants are different than yours.

What kind of investments to make? The primary thing you need is low investment expenses and an appropriate asset allocation. Low expenses and good allocation will give you 95% of your desired result, and any further microadjustments are likely a waste of your time. Vanguard funds generally have the lowest expenses in the market, and Vanguard has many fund-of-funds including I'm sure a fund that meets your needs. My own needs are met by Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 fund, but your needs will be different. I prefer the Target Retirement funds because they change allocation slowly over time- your risk tolerance at age 30 will be different than your risk tolerance at age 70.

Is the market too XXX? to YYY? I don't know and I don't care and it is basically irrelevant to your preceeding questions. If you have the $8 million in cash, I would suggest buying a vanguard fund tomorrow. If you own a vanguard fund already, I would suggest keeping it there. What the market does in the next month, year, five years, or ten years is of little concern in this journey.

Finally, I have little expertise on your question about asset protection, so maybe somebody else can chime in here. I don't plan on any changes when I start practicing medicine for pay in a few months. My chosen specialty has a low rate of malpractice though, and courts often find my types of patients unsympathetic and/or unreliable.
 
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When your money is invested properly, a pile of money will generally have a Safe Withdrawal Rate of 4% per year, forever. Meaning, your investments will grow at (inflation + 4%), so you can withdraw 4% of your assets every year, and the dollar amount will grow with inflation so it maintains that standard of living (constant dollars) forever even after you die.


I actually haven't worked through the exact math deeply enough (I'm not that close to retiring), but it's my understanding that the 4% SWR is for an expected 30 year retirement. If you retired at 35 and had a possibly 50-60 year retirement than in some scenarios in the past 4% would not have held up for that long.

I'm conservative financially when planning, so I personally use a 2-3% SWR as my target for retiring early both in case I live a very long time as well as to offset some of the whole "future returns may not be the same as past returns" sort of risk. Also worth pointing out that where that nest egg is stashed and what the tax consequences are of withdrawals from various areas is worth considering if you are actually planning on retiring at a certain date, especially if you are pulling out enough money per year to put you in a high marginal income tax rate.
 
I actually haven't worked through the exact math deeply enough (I'm not that close to retiring), but it's my understanding that the 4% SWR is for an expected 30 year retirement. If you retired at 35 and had a possibly 50-60 year retirement than in some scenarios in the past 4% would not have held up for that long.

I'm conservative financially when planning, so I personally use a 2-3% SWR as my target for retiring early both in case I live a very long time as well as to offset some of the whole "future returns may not be the same as past returns" sort of risk. Also worth pointing out that where that nest egg is stashed and what the tax consequences are of withdrawals from various areas is worth considering if you are actually planning on retiring at a certain date, especially if you are pulling out enough money per year to put you in a high marginal income tax rate.
When I say SWR of 4% a year, I mean every January withdraw 4% of that year January's principle. Even if the stock market returned zero for the next 150 years, the money would still "last forever", it would just be very small and not able to maintain the standard of living. Sure I survived the market crash in 07 or 09 or whenever- my payments to myself went down and I had to tighten my belt just like everybody else did.

It would be the height of pigheadedness to declare "well the stock market dropped by 60% this year but imma keep withdrawing my $50,000 (or $500,000 or whatever) because my math formula 3 years ago said I could". In good years I make more money. In bad years I make less than I did the prior year. The world standard of living tends to follow the market, so reducing expenses when the market crashes doesn't really seem so bad because everybody else is reducing expenses and all the pop magazine articles are about reducing expenses.

The risk of choosing a SWR too large (like 8%) is that your standard of living will gradually decline. The risk of choosing a SWR too small (like 2%) is that while your standard of living will rise over time, you never really enjoyed it to its fullest. Why are we saving all this money? If it is for ourselves, then dying with too much money is an opportunity cost all of its own. If you are saving for a charity, an endowment, or to provide better for your next generation than you ever experienced, then maybe a smaller SWR can be justified.

As for taxes, I haven't had W2 wage income yet this century. My income is mostly dividends (reinvested) and capital gains. Both have historically been taxed at much lower rates than dreaded wage ("earned") income that doctors are all goo-goo about. After living in lines 8 and 9 of form 1040 for decades, putting positive numbers into line 7 again is going to feel downright punitive.
 
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If I had no debt, I could retire and live very well for at least 30 years on 1 million as of today, with no other income, and likely without having to deplete the principle. If anyone would like to see me prove it, PM me for the address to which the check should be mailed. Wire transfer also acceptable. As of today, I'd need an extra $250k, to cover all my debt, including paying off my mortgage.

No kids and no desire for them. Low acceptable standard of living. My idea of fun doesn't require travel or large expenditures. I happily drive a 26 year old Volvo 240 station wagon that costs less to maintain than most new cars.

The real problem is that there is no way that I could retire. I might change what it is that I do, but the idea of just being idle is inconceivable to me. I wouldn't know what to do with myself. I'm definitely one of those guys who would not live long after retirement, if I were forced to stop doing things that I see as productive.
 
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More than enough to slow down to part time, but depends completely on how much of a consumer you are. A possibly useful resource you might want to check out is "FIRE Calc." You can Google it. Super simple to use. Just plug in your 8 million number and how much you expect to spend each year. Keep in mind the numbers generated are based on a mix of stock and bond holdings.

I would probably split it between stock market index funds and rental property. More aggressive returns, and if the stock market is tanking for a year or two, you can still live off of income from the rentals while you wait for the stock market to rebound. "Retiring" completely will not be satisfying. Retirement is boring. You don't have to keep doing medicine, but you'll want to do something, especially after your mind has been trained to work hard day after day, month after month, year after year. Relaxing sounds pleasurable, but too much of a good thing spoils quickly. Real satisfaction comes from productivity and achieving great goals. You probably know that already, but with 8 million you would have the freedom to be productive however you want to be. Would not have to be medicine. Make sure you have a good umbrella liability insurance policy (obviously).
 
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I am but a dumb MS3 and stumbled across the financial part of SDN. Is $8million a not-so-absurd number for retiring 60-something physicians to hit? That seems that an absolute ****ton of money.
I estimated that 8 million in 30 years will be worth what 2.67 million is worth today (or about 100k a year at 4% withdraw) which is what I think I need at a minimum once my house and everything is paid off. 8 million today especially is plenty to retire on, if you can't live on 320k a year (4% withdraw), you have a lifestyle issue, not a retirement issue.
 
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I am but a dumb MS3 and stumbled across the financial part of SDN. Is $8million a not-so-absurd number for retiring 60-something physicians to hit? That seems that an absolute ****ton of money.
It is an outlier for sure, but a dual high income no kid couple with low expenditures and some good investments could get there.
 
I am but a dumb MS3 and stumbled across the financial part of SDN. Is $8million a not-so-absurd number for retiring 60-something physicians to hit? That seems that an absolute ****ton of money.

8 million divided by 35 years of employment equals an average of $228,571 in savings per year, assuming the money is only earned by salary and is not invested in any way that pays even 1% in interest. That's higher than a family medicine doctor in California is likely to make, but it isn't unreasonable at all for a specialist living in an area with high salaries, provided they're willing to devote a very large part of their income to savings. I'm not going to run the math, but my guess is that someone earning 400k a year and saving 228k for retirement will actually have more money to spend once they hit eight million, retire and start withdrawing their money.
 
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8 million divided by 35 years of employment equals an average of $228,571 in savings per year, assuming the money is only earned by salary and is not invested in any way that pays even 1% in interest. That's higher than a family medicine doctor in California is likely to make, but it isn't unreasonable at all for a specialist living in an area with high salaries, provided they're willing to devote a very large part of their income to savings. I'm not going to run the math, but my guess is that someone earning 400k a year and saving 228k for retirement will actually have more money to spend once they hit eight million, retire and start withdrawing their money.
That math neglects the 8th wonder of the world. ;)

Even just throwing stuff into Compound Interest Calculator | Investor.gov

So $40,000 invested annually for 30 years @ 5% would give almost $3 Million. At 15% we're at $20 Million. I don't think $8 Million is that impossible, but most sane people may not want to work 30 years. Heck, front-end the living crud out of your investments and save $80,000/year. Or more.

$80,000 new money per year @ 5% for 20 years gives the same figure of almost $3 Million.
 
Conventional retirement wisdom would allow for a 4% drawdown, which would net you $320,000 a year for life on 8 million, more than enough. You'd have to keep the money invested appropriately if you wanted to control for inflation.
 
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I actually haven't worked through the exact math deeply enough (I'm not that close to retiring), but it's my understanding that the 4% SWR is for an expected 30 year retirement. If you retired at 35 and had a possibly 50-60 year retirement than in some scenarios in the past 4% would not have held up for that long.

I'm conservative financially when planning, so I personally use a 2-3% SWR as my target for retiring early both in case I live a very long time as well as to offset some of the whole "future returns may not be the same as past returns" sort of risk. Also worth pointing out that where that nest egg is stashed and what the tax consequences are of withdrawals from various areas is worth considering if you are actually planning on retiring at a certain date, especially if you are pulling out enough money per year to put you in a high marginal income tax rate.
The 4% number is the ideal number if you're invested broadly. Most years you'll earn more than inflation, though some years you'll earn less. You can never run out of money because you take a percentage. If you're the sort that is taking a smaller percentage you just end up with less money for the entirety of your life and a bigger nest egg, substantially bigger to the point of ridiculousness.
 
8 million divided by 35 years of employment equals an average of $228,571 in savings per year, assuming the money is only earned by salary and is not invested in any way that pays even 1% in interest. That's higher than a family medicine doctor in California is likely to make, but it isn't unreasonable at all for a specialist living in an area with high salaries, provided they're willing to devote a very large part of their income to savings. I'm not going to run the math, but my guess is that someone earning 400k a year and saving 228k for retirement will actually have more money to spend once they hit eight million, retire and start withdrawing their money.
Who invests at zero percent interest? Drug dealers saving under a mattress? Interest and returns are what allow you to retire, not the principle.
 
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Who invests at zero percent interest? Drug dealers saving under a mattress? Interest and returns are what allow you to retire, not the principle.

I know. My point was that even if a doctor was to just accumulate principle they could reasonably expect to end up with $8 million if they had a good income and were very disciplined about saving.
 
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Hi, better purchase a retirement home itself somewhere in Miami...
 
How much money is necessary to retire for one at any earlier age or cut down to part time?

Do you think 8 million dollars is sufficient to retire at a younger age (late 30s to 40s) or work part time?

What investments would you make to preserve capital and produce sufficient dividends?

Is the market too inflated whereby stock investments will collapse to decrease capital in the future whereby cash flow is compromised in the future?

Also, would you recommend leaving medicine for a nonclinical position to limit malpractice risk in the future if money isn't in a trust?
 
DrCommonsense, you dont need 8 million by mid 40s to semi-retire. You could get by less than half that and still live a very comfortable lifestyle. The stock market will crash again (no doubt). The question is how will you achieve your 4 million figure without stocks going up much in the future (next 10 yrs). I am currently 39 yrs old and I am not even close to that figure and I am making very good money (> 500k). My worth is 2 mil. Learn to live on less and you will be happier.
 
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This is an amazingly hypothetical thread. OP, the short answer to your question is a "no" unless you specify much lower parameters. The reason being, if you're earning at a fast enough rate to make 8 mil by late 30s, you're going to want to maintain a relatively high income post-retirement. Although you'll be in a lower tax bracket and have no work-related expenses anymore, inflation is a bitch and even at the currently-lowered 2-ish percent, thanks to the compounding effect, your money would lose 2/3rds of its value in the next 40-50 years you'll live.

But, as Lonestar says, if you manage to never give in to the temptation of spending the money you earn and don't get used to a grand lifestyle, it may actually be possible. But I highly doubt it's going to happen.
 
The safe rate of withdrawal in your case should not be 4%, but rather like 2.5% or less. That would give you $200,000 a year to spend.

Does that fit within your budget? If not, wait 5 years.
 
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