Here are the inputs I used:
1) HPSP signing bonus $20,000, monthly stipend $1992
2) Student attends an out of state school or a private school with a cost of tuition, fees, books, and health insurance of $48,000 per year. Loans are taken out at 6.8%.
3) The time value of money is 6% per year. This means that increased pay in medical school and residency is worth more than increased pay later.
4) The HPSP student completes a military residency. Pay rates taken directly from 2011 military pay tables. BAH values from 2011 BAH calculator for a large military medical center. The non-HPSP student attends the actual civilian residency I attended and is paid according to 2010-2011 rates paid by the hospital.
5) The military physician makes approximately $130,000 per year while in the service. This is an approximate figure of what a military emergency physician in his first few years out of residency makes.
6) The civilian physician makes the average employee total compensation per the Daniel Sterns 2010 survey of emergency physicians, $263,000.
After 4 years of medical school, 3 years of residency, and 4 years of post-residency practice, the military physician has received benefits of $1.125 Million and the civilian physician has received benefits of $1.083 Million, essentially a draw. The balance is tilted in favor of the civilian route for a cheaper medical school, cheaper loans, a higher-paying specialty, or a more lucrative private partnership type position. Conversely, the balance is tilted in favor of the military route for a more expensive medical school, a lower paying specialty, or prior military service.