Is this cycle as competitive as last year?

[peaceloveandmedicine]

Last cycle saw an uptick in applicants and I was wondering if the trend continued this cycle. I know every cycle is competitive but last year was more so just cause more people applied. I was waitlisted last cycle and just wondering if I should manage expectations for this cycle.

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[Octagon]

If there is any change in competitiveness (however you want to define that), it would be insignificant when in the context of a single applicant.

It will depend mostly on how you personally improved your application over the past year.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

Last cycle saw an uptick in applicants and I was wondering if the trend continued this cycle. I know every cycle is competitive but last year was more so just cause more people applied. I was waitlisted last cycle and just wondering if I should manage expectations for this cycle.

More applied thinking schools are less demanding about ECs.

 

[star-lily]

More applied thinking schools are less demanding about ECs.

What do you mean by this?

 

[star-lily]

Whoops, I misread the original post, my bad.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

With COVID, lock downs, social distancing, and remote learning, work, etc, the opportunity for clinical and community volunteering has decreased dramatically. So the speculation there is med schools would be more lenient to deficiencies in these areas. However, AMCAS reported an 18% increase in the number of applicants (about 8,000 more from previous cycle) and about a 25% increase in the number of applications (meaning increase in the average number of applications per student), it is more a buyers market than ever.

AACOM reported similar increase and the beginning of 2021 noted a 7% increase in the current cycle over the previous. And there is typically a 3-5 year lag in premed preparation so the "fauci effect" may be with us for several more cycles
It's Official: Med School Applications Well Up This Cycle
Applications to medical school are at an all-time high. What does this mean for applicants and schools?
Applications to Osteopathic Medical Schools Soar to Record Levels

you mean sellers market?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

More competitive in my opinion. Even though the economy seems to be picking up, the brief recession impacted medical school age applicants the hardest. Thus, even if these individuals can now get jobs, they are more attracted to a “recession proof” career.

these individuals had 18 months to prepare versus ~3 months

finally, there are a growing number of signs pointing to debt cancellation before 2024.

 

[LizzyM]

We won't know until AMCAS application cycle closes. Last year was a record-breaker but the number of seats was not much greater than usual so we know that there were more unsuccessful applicants last year than ever before. Whether many of them reapply this year, along with those who are eligible this year for the first time and those who were eligible last year but who chose not to apply given the barriers to taking the MCAT and all the rest of the craziness of 2020.

So, there may be a larger pool of applicants this year than in a usual year but it remains to be proven whether it will be bigger than last year.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

I would say buyers as the applicants are selling themselves and med schools are buying

Interesting way to put it 😀

 

[KnightDoc]

I would say buyers as the applicants are selling themselves and med schools are buying

With all due respect, you would be wrong. Buyer and seller tracks with the money. Med schools are sellers of a medical education. We are buyers. If they were employers paying us to attend, they'd be buyers, and we'd be selling our services. Your's is a very seller-centric way of looking at it!😀

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Wouldn’t it actually be more like a winner takes all market, in which a handful of top performers (applicants) reap a disproportionate share of the rewards? Med schools seem just as driven to attract the same ~1000 candidates as the ~25000 applicants are to be accepted into med school.

 

[KnightDoc]

I look it from a student’s point of view. They are selling themselves in application and interview hoping to be bought by medical school. How many times do we people to sell themselves so I extend the analogy in the respect

I understand, but by that logic, there is no such thing as a seller's market, because the buyer in such a market is always trying to sell themselves, since, by definition, the seller has the advantage.

Remember, it's still the schools selling an education. It's just that the overwhelming demand in relation to supply has created the competition you are referring to.

Schools still aren't buying anything. If there were fewer applicants, are you suggesting buyers would suddenly become sellers, even though the exchange of tuition in return for an education would remain exactly the same?

 

[LizzyM]

Applicants try to sell themselves to the adcoms who are making the selections. The shoe is on the other foot in April when the schools will try to sell themselves to the prospective students who hold more than one offer. It is an interesting turning of the tables.

 

[LizzyM]

Since this has a recurring element to it might say it is a periodic turning of the tables.

It tends to happen organically but if the chemistry is just not there, someone will be disappointed.

 

[star-lily]

You could certainly say that these jokes are degenerate. None of them noticeably takes more effort than the other.

 

[Goro]

You could certainly say that these jokes are degenerate. None of them noticeably takes more effort than the other.

Not for nothing I call Gonnif the Prince of Punnery. It's all elementary, really. His jokes are mostly golden, as he has an iron constitution to have to deal with posts so bad they're little better than getting a barium enema.

But sometimes his humor can go over like a lead balloon. And at times he sucks all the oxygen out of the room, but that's because he has a tin ear. There is a silver lining to all this, as he can have a phosphorescent, if not actually radiant effect on these fora.

Gawd help us if he forsakes all of this and moves to Silicon Valley!

 

[star-lily]

Not for nothing I call Gonnif the Prince of Punnery. It's all elementary, really. His jokes are mostly golden, as he has an iron constitution to have to deal with posts so bad they're little better than getting a barium enema.

But sometimes his humor can go over like a lead balloon. And at times he sucks all the oxygen out of the room, but that's because he has a tin ear. There is a silver lining to all this, as he can have a phosphorescent, if not actually radiant effect on these fora.

Gawd help us if he forsakes all of this and moves to Silicon Valley!

Now this right here is on an entirely different energy level. It's quite exciting.

 

[KnightDoc]

then that begs the question why do we tell applicants they have to sell themselves? if they are selling themselves then the med schools are apparently the buyers. this isnt an economic analogy as much a labor supply and demand. but in the end its just an expression to help applicants. if it violates the laws of economic may I be struck down by Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes thus getting crushed by both schools of thought at once

Don't get me wrong -- you're great and I love you regardless. That said, everything does not have to be viewed from the schools' perspective.

Yes, applicants need to sell themselves precisely because it is a seller's market! Applicants certainty are selling themselves to adcoms, but the service or product here is still a medical school education, and the schools are the sellers of that. They have all the power due to the supply/demand imbalance. As a result, it's a seller's market.

IMHO, due to your countless years of dedicated service and the infinite number of candidates you have helped, starting with me, I believe you have earned the right to misuse the term to your heart's content. 😎 As long as we all know what you mean, it's all good!!!

 

[star-lily]

I refuse to react to any of this

How noble.

 

[LunaOri]

How noble.

Or maybe he’s just inert.

 

[deleted1017120]

I think competitiveness will be highly dependent on the school.

I was directly told by one of the full-time admissions staff at a school I got feedback from that my application would be significantly more competitive this cycle as opposed to last year (I got waitlisted at this school). They said that this was because they will now be considering MCAT scores (and mine was above their average) whereas last cycle they didn't even look at MCAT scores due to not requiring it. They also implied that this was the case at a couple of different schools in the area.

Naturally, that kind of situation will vary dramatically by institution, and whether this actually occurs or not is also an open question.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Back to the original question, the AAMC has reported at least an 18% increase in applicants for the 2021 cycles over the pre-pandemic 2020 cycle, which is about 9500 additional applicants. Normal applicant pool growth is roughly 3% per year which is also the rate growth for first year seats. So instead of an expected 55,000 applicants you have roughly 63,000 applicants for roughly 23,000 seats. That means the matriculation rate this cycle will be about 37-38% below the "normal" 41-42% that take a seat. Since there is a 3-5 year lag between premed and application, it is projected this may be the new normal for the next several cycles.

Time to send out some more applications. They should put this example of game theory into Econ books.

 

[aurevoir0711]

Med schools are becoming more competitive every year. No doubt about that. The question I have in my mind is among people who abruptly applied last year due to COVID, how many of them were fully prepared to apply. Building relevant experiences/stats/insights to apply for med school takes time and effort. It's fairly easy to distinguish students who are truly committed to medicine. I suppose that a lot of students who abruptly applied last year got filtered out very quickly.

 

[texasvandy]

Lets clarify terms here as they are used in the data:

Competitiveness refers to the ratio of applications per available seats. This captures the increased number of applicants no matter their record
Selectivity refers to the quality of the applicants and the review/selection process of the medical school.

The 2020-2021 (first pandemic cycle) had the very atypical factors of much more competition, with some 9500 or 18% increase on applicants in the aggregate, more average applications per applicants, and therefore more applications per school. However, some selectivity factors were removed from consideration by a large fraction of the schools. Early numbers in the 2021-2022 cycle suggest that there will be further increase in the number of applicants above and beyond last year but an increase in selectivity as MCAT is/will be considered at a majority of schools. BTW, these two cycles may bring the total increase in applicants from pre-pandemic to 25% or 12,000-13,000 more students applying than just two cycles ago.

Speculating here (I have no numbers), with the number of applications increasing per school, there will be increased pressure on schools to take no action (that is not invite for interview) on a larger fraction of applications. This will likely increase my ROT (rule of thumb) that schools will have to reject somewhere approaching 85% of applicants prior to II. In short, the increased competitiveness will increase selectivity.

Has AMCAS put out a current applicant number for this cycle?

 

[LizzyM]

Has AMCAS put out a current applicant number for this cycle?

The AAMC annual meeting takes place in November. At that time, it releases the numbers from the prior cycle (2020-2021 cycle figures will be out in November 2021).

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I’m projecting 75k applicants, which reflects both the enduring impact of a sharp economic downturn in Q2/Q32020 and secular trends encouraging applicants to try their luck 2, 3, even 4 times.

 

[texasvandy]

The AAMC annual meeting takes place in November. At that time, it releases the numbers from the prior cycle (2020-2021 cycle figures will be out in November 2021).

In the past they have mentioned running tally of current applicants on twitter or something?

 

[KnightDoc]

The numbers reported so far, include 17% increase during the last cycle, increasing from 53K to about 62.5K applicants and 7%-8% for this cycle over last cycle, which will add about 5K more to 67-68K. No unless you are following economic religiously, it would seem "secular" would be an inaccurate way to describe these trends

Where did you see the 7-8%? I would have thought it would level off this year after last year's huge increase!

Where are all these additional applicants coming from? Particularly during a pandemic, when it was difficult to find ECs? In other words, aside from the 50K+ who have been on track to apply this cycle for years, plus the additional 10K or so who might be reapplying from last cycle, where the hell are an additional 5K people coming from?

Presumably, they have been sheltering in place for a large portion of the past 18 months and would have little to no actual in-person ECs to talk about. I'll ask the same question I asked last cycle -- if they exist (and I assume you found the number somewhere), how can the vast majority of them actually be competitive, last minute, Fauci inspired applicants, rather than just a bunch of last minute wannabees who have no idea how ridiculously competitive this is?

TBH, while the numbers are insanely intimidating, I'm telling myself they are not real, and that most of the incremental applicants are not competitive as compared to those who have been preparing for many years. It's the only way I was able to motivate myself to actually apply!

 

[LizzyM]

Where did you see the 7-8%? I would have thought it would level off this year after last year's huge increase!

Where are all these additional applicants coming from? Particularly during a pandemic, when it was difficult to find ECs? In other words, aside from the 50K+ who have been on track to apply this cycle for years, plus the additional 10K or so who might be reapplying from last cycle, where the hell are an additional 5K people coming from?

Presumably, they have been sheltering in place for a large portion of the past 18 months and would have little to no actual in-person ECs to talk about. I'll ask the same question I asked last cycle -- if they exist (and I assume you found the number somewhere), how can the vast majority of them actually be competitive, last minute, Fauci inspired applicants, rather than just a bunch of last minute wannabees who have no idea how ridiculously competitive this is?

TBH, while the numbers are insanely intimidating, I'm telling myself they are not real, and that most of the incremental applicants are not competitive as compared to those who have been preparing for many years. It's the only way I was able to motivate myself to actually apply!

I wonder if some have the ECs because they were working in health care during the pandemic and/or grabbing volunteer opportunities that presented themselves because of the pandemic.

 

[texasvandy]

there were people who were able to volunteer online and/or participate in covid vaccination drives.

 

[KnightDoc]

I wonder if some have the ECs because they were working in health care during the pandemic and/or grabbing volunteer opportunities that presented themselves because of the pandemic.

Good point, but, given all the burnout horror stories on the news, are the front line workers really the most likely to be rushing to sign up?

As far as volunteer hours go, I can tell you from first hand experience that most of them disappeared, rather than presenting themselves. I'm not sure how newbies would stumble onto those that remained, while competing with tens of thousands who were being displaced. Plus, remember, many were scared to have contact, even with masks and later, vaccines.

 

[LizzyM]

Good point, but, given all the burnout horror stories on the news, are the front line workers really the most likely to be rushing to sign up?

As far as volunteer hours go, I can tell you from first hand experience that most of them disappeared, rather than presenting themselves. I'm not sure how newbies would stumble onto those that remained, while competing with tens of thousands who were being displaced. Plus, remember, many were scared to have contact, even with masks and later, vaccines.

My pastor had opportunities for young adults who were unafraid to shop and deliver items to those who couldn't get out and who were too poor to afford delivery fees. Sure there was burnout in some markets and some units but people luck enough to be working in OB or ortho trauma or burns were doing there usual thing, no?

 

[texasvandy]

My pastor had opportunities for young adults who were unafraid to shop and deliver items to those who couldn't get out and who were too poor to afford delivery fees. Sure there was burnout in some markets and some units but people luck enough to be working in OB or ortho trauma or burns were doing there usual thing, no?

there is a show on HBO called Betty where they were showing African American teens running around New York city helping out old people who couldnt go out.

 

[KnightDoc]

My pastor had opportunities for young adults who were unafraid to shop and deliver items to those who couldn't get out and who were too poor to afford delivery fees. Sure there was burnout in some markets and some units but people luck enough to be working in OB or ortho trauma or burns were doing there usual thing, no?

Sure, but are they really applying to med school now is numbers disproportionate to two years ago? There was clearly a surge last year, brought on by the pandemic and all the associated economic uncertainty. For every new EC opportunity created by the pandemic there were probably 10+ that were eliminated, just based on my personal experience from March 2020 through last week.

Is this application surge really sustainable for the next few years, and, if so, are the 10K+ additional applicants really competitive with the 50K+ that would have applied anyway, particularly when ECs have been seriously curtailed for the past 18 months or so? I guess we'll see!