Just curious: How many new, unique acceptees after traffic day?

[One-Eyed-Daruma]

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I'm interested in how big the "traffic" or "trickle-down" of acceptances is as a result of traffic day.
I'm sorry if this information is somewhere else. I've tried to find it.
According to the AAMC data, in recent years, roughly 43-41% of AMCAS applicants eventually matriculate to some US MD school. But:

1. What % of eventual acceptees are holding an acceptance before traffic day, as opposed to those who receive their first acceptance anytime AFTER traffic day?

2. Or, how many acceptances does the average acceptee receive?

3. I realize I'm asking several different questions. Any statistic generally related to my question would be greatly appreciated. If there are no reliable statistics, from your experience, how big do you think the traffic day and subsequent shift are?

Full disclosure: currently 2 acceptances, 6 waitlists (definitely influencing my interest in the question).

 

[LizzyM]

I'm interested in how big the "traffic" or "trickle-down" of acceptances is as a result of traffic day.
I'm sorry if this information is somewhere else. I've tried to find it.
According to the AAMC data, in recent years, roughly 43-41% of AMCAS applicants eventually matriculate to some US MD school. But:

1. What % of eventual acceptees are holding an acceptance before traffic day, as opposed to those who receive their first acceptance anytime AFTER traffic day?

2. Or, how many acceptances does the average acceptee receive?

3. I realize I'm asking several different questions. Any statistic generally related to my question would be greatly appreciated. If there are no reliable statistics, from your experience, how big do you think the traffic day and subsequent shift are?

Full disclosure: currently 2 acceptances, 6 waitlists (definitely influencing my interest in the question).

I have no data but I'm going to go with my gut:

I would estimate that at least 10-20% of the eventual matriculants are not holding an offer on traffic day.

The median number of acceptances among those who receive an acceptance is at least one, obviously. The median number may vary depending on applicant stats and the number of interviews attended (if you attend one interview, get an early offer and cancel all further interviews the number of offers is artificially depressed). I heard a decade ago that for my school the average was 4 but I think it may have gone up. The superstars are going to have a large number of offers and then, after they make up their minds, the remaining seats, if any, are filled from the waitlist.

 

[breakintheroof]

This is an interesting question. Like @gonnif said, we outsiders can only guess at the real answer.

@LizzyM, the median number of acceptances among those who matriculate is almost certainly two: Barely more than 50% of matriculating students had more than one acceptance, per the Matriculating Student Questionnaire. (The columns are 2013 and 2014 numbers, respectively.)

Then again, I don't think this is quite representative of the kind of applicant we're talking about. I suspect these reported numbers are skewed by people who do BS/MD, postbac linkages, SMPs, early decision, and so on. So among those who go through a "regular" cycle, the median number could be higher. And at private, selective schools that get mostly regular AMCAS applicants, I would definitely believe a median of four or more.