Just how competitive was the 2008 MD cycle?

[nowanmd]

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Does anyone know how many applications there were for the 2008 US MD application cycle?

 

[pincheeric]

http://www.nrmp.org/data/advancedatatables2008.pdf

Go to the bottom of page 4 for totals.

 

[nowanmd]

thanks but i wanted to know how many med school applicants there were for the class starting in 2008.

 

[gplex86]

http://www.nrmp.org/data/advancedatatables2008.pdf

Go to the bottom of page 4 for totals.

This is for residency matches... I think the OP wanted application to med school numbers.

 

[Pedsbro]

Well for the 2007 entering class, 42,315 people applied to allopathic medical schools. I would imagine 2008 would at least be close to that number, but I don't think that data has been released yet, seeing how people are still getting accepted off of waitlists.

 

[Green Penguin]

The 08 cycle was very competitive, take a look at the most recent MSAR...the median MCAT scores and GPAs rose significantly

 

[s1lver]

The 08 cycle was very competitive, take a look at the most recent MSAR...the median MCAT scores and GPAs rose significantly

By the time I'm ready to apply, the average will be around 3.8 GPA + 38 MCAT 🙁

 

[rcd]

The 08 cycle was very competitive, take a look at the most recent MSAR...the median MCAT scores and GPAs rose significantly

Here's to hoping it was an outlier year.

Here's my economic analysis, 2 parts.

1. As the economy gets worse more people opt for graduate education (empirically demonstrated opportunity cost correlate). Combine that with virtually non-increasing class sizes and you have a genuine theory for a competitiveness increase (up demand, cert peri).

2. High median scores are self-fulfillingly increasing. As students see high MCAT/GPA medians, they work harder to get their scores up. 2004 students saw 2000 averages, 2003 saw 2002 averages, etc. Though I'm not sure of the MCAT effects here since at lease some of your MCAT score is normalized against other test-takers, GPA will increase for sure.

1 goes towards the outlier year theory. 2 goes for the bad news bears theory.

 

[rcd]

The 08 cycle was very competitive, take a look at the most recent MSAR...the median MCAT scores and GPAs rose significantly

Here's to hoping it was an outlier year.

Here's my economic analysis, 2 parts.

1. As the economy gets worse more people opt for graduate education (empirically demonstrated opportunity cost correlate). Combine that with virtually non-increasing class sizes and you have a genuine theory for a competitiveness increase (up demand, cert peri).

2. High median scores are self-fulfillingly increasing. As students see high MCAT/GPA medians, they work harder to get their scores up. 2004 students saw 2000 averages, 2003 saw 2002 averages, etc. Though I'm not sure of the MCAT effects here since some component of MCAT scores might be normalized against other test-takers, GPA will increase for sure.

1 goes towards the outlier year theory. 2 goes for the bad news bears theory.

 

[Green Penguin]

Here's to hoping it was an outlier year.

Here's my economic analysis, 2 parts.

1. As the economy gets worse more people opt for graduate education (empirically demonstrated opportunity cost correlate). Combine that with virtually non-increasing class sizes and you have a genuine theory for a competitiveness increase (up demand, cert peri).

2. High median scores are self-fulfillingly increasing. As students see high MCAT/GPA medians, they work harder to get their scores up. 2004 students saw 2000 averages, 2003 saw 2002 averages, etc. Though I'm not sure of the MCAT effects here since some component of MCAT scores might be normalized against other test-takers, GPA will increase for sure.

1 goes towards the outlier year theory. 2 goes for the bad news bears theory.

I would say it is mostly a function of (1) the poor economy and (2) the increasing number of students pursuing undergraduate degrees (and thus a larger pool of undergraduates likely to be applying) while the number of medical school students has remained stagnant.

MCAT scores are "curved" so the only way for more applicants to have higher MCAT scores is for more people to take the test (otherwise higher raw scores just get changed into lower converted scores via a harder curve)...if more applicants take the test, however, there are more applicants with scores at the high end of the curve (because there are more applicants overall). Hope that makes sense to you.

The only way the competitiveness is likely to go down is if fewer people apply or more spots are opened up. The number of applicants is partially driven by the economic conditions, but that doesn't necessarily make 08 an outlier either since economic conditions are likely to remain rough over the next several application cycles. So if you're planning on applying in the next 1-4 cycles, I wouldn't bank on it being less competitive

 

[rcd]

MCAT scores are "curved" so the only way for more applicants to have higher MCAT scores is for more people to take the test (otherwise higher raw scores just get changed into lower converted scores via a harder curve)...if more applicants take the test, however, there are more applicants with scores at the high end of the curve (because there are more applicants overall). Hope that makes sense to you.

Thanks for your input, but the quoted is not true. For empirical evidence, see http://www.aamc.org/students/mcat/examineedata/pubs.htm and compare 2006 to 2007 data for instance. Scores correlate to different percentiles in those years. MCAT score calculations are complex and non-transparent. For reference, you might try and find some threads on SDN.

 

[WinterLights]

Thanks for your input, but the quoted is not true. For empirical evidence, see http://www.aamc.org/students/mcat/examineedata/pubs.htm and compare 2006 to 2007 data for instance. Scores correlate to different percentiles in those years. MCAT score calculations are complex and non-transparent. For reference, you might try and find some threads on SDN.

What data from that site are you citing?

 

[rcd]

What data from that site are you citing?

Compare any of the data in any of the PDFs under "Percentages and Scaled Score Tables," and most of it won't match between different tests.

 

[p30doc]

1. As the economy gets worse more people opt for graduate education (empirically demonstrated opportunity cost correlate). Combine that with virtually non-increasing class sizes and you have a genuine theory for a competitiveness increase (up demand, cert peri).

It is certainly true as the economy worsens graduate and professional school applications rise. However, the medical school admissions process isn't something you can just jump into due to factors like pre-reqs, mcats and ec's required to apply. I think the application numbers would lag a couple years behind the economic woes. Having said that, I am sure some people who we on the fence or who had completed necessary med school stuff decided to apply because of the poor economy, thereby increasing the applicant numbers. It is easier to get up and apply to law school at the drop of a hat than it is to med school. I would expect applications to rise at least initially at a faster rate at other graduate programs compared with medical school applications.

 

[gplex86]

It is certainly true as the economy worsens graduate and professional school applications rise. However, the medical school admissions process isn't something you can just jump into due to factors like pre-reqs, mcats and ec's required to apply. I think the application numbers would lag a couple years behind the economic woes. Having said that, I am sure some people who we on the fence or who had completed necessary med school stuff decided to apply because of the poor economy, thereby increasing the applicant numbers. It is easier to get up and apply to law school at the drop of a hat than it is to med school. I would expect applications to rise at least initially at a faster rate at other graduate programs compared with medical school applications.

I think a bigger - or compounding - problem is that there's a shortage of physicians, an increased population, but few new medical schools. The problem will be alleviated as many new schools are finally opening.

Many of the new ones are DO... I remember hearing that in a few years 1/5 graduating med students will be DO. Which is good since they will likely do primary care. But it's bad for DO students expecting to apply for MD residencies. The hill is getting steeper for them.

 

[Green Penguin]

Compare any of the data in any of the PDFs under "Percentages and Scaled Score Tables," and most of it won't match between different tests.

The differences are mostly minimal...and the numbers can't really be exactly the same because neither the converted nor the raw scores are continuous (they have a finite number of divisions), so one year would be expected to vary from the next slightly. Their doesn't seem to be a trend, upward or otherwise, however.

Still, I will concede that I do not know how the scores are converted, but I assume that they are based on the percentile one scores in, and that AAMC would be unlikely to change how they convert scores from year to year. If you assume those two things (I know, assumptions are bad), then the only way there would be more high scoring applicants is to have more applicants (or by pure chance of how the scores are partitioned, however this effect should not be great enough to cause significant changes from year to year)

 

[RySerr21]

By the time I'm ready to apply, the average will be around 3.8 GPA + 38 MCAT 🙁

only here on SDN. dont worry about it too much.

 

[gplex86]

only here on SDN. dont worry about it too much.

Yeah. SDN is total dick-wagging most of the time. Get a 30 and a 3.5 and you'll have a competitive application, so long as you didn't spend your out-of-class time wagging your dick around at everyone.

And if you're a little below the average - you still have a shot.

And research DO unless you really want to do radiology, anesthesiology, or derm. But who the hell would want those boring jobs? Oh yeah, people who want the money.

 

[handbanana]

Yeah. SDN is total dick-wagging most of the time. Get a 30 and a 3.5 and you'll have a competitive application, so long as you didn't spend your out-of-class time wagging your dick around at everyone.

And if you're a little below the average - you still have a shot.

And research DO unless you really want to do radiology, anesthesiology, or derm. But who the hell would want those boring jobs? Oh yeah, people who want the money.

Not to be a dick, but DOs get anesthesiology residencies all the time. You're right about rads and derm tho.

 

[TheRealMD]

It is certainly true as the economy worsens graduate and professional school applications rise. However, the medical school admissions process isn't something you can just jump into due to factors like pre-reqs, mcats and ec's required to apply. I think the application numbers would lag a couple years behind the economic woes. Having said that, I am sure some people who we on the fence or who had completed necessary med school stuff decided to apply because of the poor economy, thereby increasing the applicant numbers. It is easier to get up and apply to law school at the drop of a hat than it is to med school. I would expect applications to rise at least initially at a faster rate at other graduate programs compared with medical school applications.

You assume people actually prepare when applying to medical school. When you see some of the personal statements some people churn out, you begin to think otherwise.