This is the fun part! Think about your desired location and then pick a few random states or cities that sound interesting. After that, just use a search engine to look for residency programs around that area. Many of them have good websites where you can get an idea of their curriculum (inpatient vs outpatient, exposure to EMG/EEG, electives), fellowships offered, and track record of alumni. You can see which ones may seem like a good fit on paper.
As for gauging your competitiveness, there isn’t really any magic formula. If you don’t have an amazing application you statistically are not likely to get into so-called
“top-tier” (aka brand name) programs but will have a great shot everywhere else. I would still apply to some reaches that sound interesting.
For most people, the potential benefits of applying to say 25 programs instead of 15 far outweigh the monetary cost (increased flexibility, peace of mind), but is mostly overkill. (See probability of ranking in Charting Outcomes in the Match PDF for allopathic seniors who rank 10 programs.)