To answer your question, we don't know! We won't know until we see how they ranked the site you ranked #1 and how that program ranked them. Other programs, if they ranked them, play into their match journey too.
To expand on how the match works, see below:
Say you are applicant X and interview at Programs A, B, and C. You decide to rank them all, and in the following order (B > C > A). The number in parentheses signifies how many resident positions they offer. The letter + number below the program is their rank of candidates – in real life that'll be >4, but for now I want to keep it as short as possible. The blue letter + number indicates the number in parentheses, of how many spots they have open:
1. B (2)
2. C (1)
3. A (3)
There are a few other candidates applying to these programs, Applicants W, Y, and Z join you. They interview at the same programs and get interviews at each. Their rank lists are below:
Applicant W
1. C
2. B
(Did not rank A)
Applicant Y
1. C
2. A
3. B
Applicant Z
1. B
2. C
3. A
The match starts. It examines your rank list and sees that you have ranked Program B as #1. They have an open spot and ranked you, so now Program B looks like this:
1. B (2)
The match moves on to Applicant W. They ranked Program C first, which has a spot open. Program C now looks like this.
2. C (1)
However, Applicant Y also ranked Program C first. Because the program doesn't have a spot open, it evaluates how Program C ranked both of Applicant W and Y. Unfortunately for Applicant W, Program C ranked Applicant Y higher as their #1 choice – surprise! Program C now looks like this, and has finalized their match. They are no longer able to be matched with because this is a 1:1 match. Otherwise, it would still be open for matching (given their highest ranked candidates, who also would need to rank them very high, have yet to match).
2. C (1)
This means Applicant W re-enters the match. The program looks at the Applicant's rank list and sees their next and final option was Program B. Because the program ranked them and has a spot open, they join Applicant X (you) at that program. Program B has filled all of their positions (at least for now).
1. B (2)
- Applicant X
- Applicant W
- B3
- B4
The program moves on to Applicant Z. Because Applicant Z also has Program B ranked as their first choice, and the program does not have an additional spot open, it examines how Program B ranked its current positioned residents and Applicant Z. The program ranked Applicant Z higher than Applicant X (you), but not higher than Applicant W – so Applicant Z will go to Program B to join Applicant W. Because Applicant Z is ranked higher than Applicant X (you), you are removed from Program B (So sorry!); the program will retain Applicant Z and W. Program B is full, but is only still open for matching if both other Applicants and the Program did not rank each other higher.
1. B (2)
- Applicant Z
- Applicant W
- B3
- B4
This means Applicant X (you) re-enter the match. The program examines your list and finds Program C as your #2 choice. Unfortunately, Program C matched with their #1 candidate (who also ranked them as #1) and that is the strongest match you can have (1:1). The match moves to your third choice, Program A. Program A has ranked you and has a spot open, so you will now go to Program A.
Note: You will for sure match to Program A if they ranked you highly, even though you ranked them lower. The only way you will be removed from Program A – and therefore not match – is if three candidates (because program A has three positions to offer), rank them highly, are placed there, and they have been ranked higher by Program A than they ranked you.
The final match appears like this:
A (3)
- Applicant X
- A2 (open)
- A3 (open)
- A4
B (2)
- Applicant Z
- Applicant W
- B3
- B4
C (1)
This goes to show you should not rank your "fall back" program, or a program you are very confident about getting into, the highest on your list if it is not your true #1 choice! The match works in your favor – you will go to a program, even if you ranked it lowest on your list, if they ranked you near the top of your list... so long as they don't have >2 candidates (so you can have that 3rd position) with a stronger match, meaning both the program and the candidate ranked each other highly.
I hope this made sense! The match was very scary to me at first and now that I realize it's here to truly help me instead of hurt me. Good luck through the next few months!