Matrix - Game Thread

Started by Animal Midwife
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FWIW, I'm working on rereading EOD and spreadsheeting, but I'm around if people want to talk. I'm also trying to do more things today because I'm busier tomorrow.
 
moonstermash said:
FWIW, I'm working on rereading EOD and spreadsheeting, but I'm around if people want to talk. I'm also trying to do more things today because I'm busier tomorrow.
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Im on my way home rn, maybe I'll be around in a bit to chat .

Im interested if you have a read on shinichi and your thoughts of EoD after you read it
 
Also @WildZoo did you say that because stagg was voting moon you thought moon was probably town?

Isnt stagg meta that he tends to bus? :thinking:
 
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moonstermash said:
Well, I wasn't hiding it, I just didn't feel like it mattered much since it's unconfirmable, in addition to being wrong and probably blocked. Mostly I was confused by the kill (I expected/hoped it would be me, TBH) and not looking forward to solving at that point. (Naps FTW :heckyeah:)
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So what happened last night?
 
Santygrass said:
Also @WildZoo did you say that because stagg was voting moon you thought moon was probably town?

Isnt stagg meta that he tends to bus? :thinking:
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No no
I don't think Stagg voting moon clears her at all. Stagg is the Bus Driver (TM).

I was explaining to Clem what I thought w!Stagg was doing in a v!moon world (because that's the universe I'm living in)
 
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samac said:
Why?
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TBH, I didn't really understand the mkg wagon much, it kinda felt like it popped up out of nowhere. Whereas being on the Shinichi wagon (with mkg) made more sense to me. It's probably where I would have gone if I didn't get overwhelmed and lose track of time, whoops.
 
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WildZoo said:
Omg that reminds me of a game a LONG time ago, Pokemon theme, my wolf pack was in huge trouble, and we did end up losing, but one of my packmates got away with an Ash claim for a day because Mel was the real Ash and he missed the claim. It was amazing :laugh:
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Staggikarp trauma triggered...SPLASH! SPLASH! SPLASH! SPLASH!

I forgot there was a whole other level of trauma to that game for me. We need another Pokemon Redux where I'm not the goddamn fisherman with 6 magikarp...
 
samac said:
With moon is it the not saying who they targeted when they came on thread?
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Santygrass said:
Also the breadcrumbing not being real. And if they are mafia they always fakeclaim.

The nightkill not being them also a factor.

And like, claiming doctor doesnt make the reasons I sussed them from D1 go away
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This is a huge factor imo. If they're doc then they're odd night, so I could see wolves saving them as a target until tonight if true, but if they're still alive tomorrow that's likely going to be a problem. It's also a smart claim for wolves to make because it puts a potential JOAT in the conundrum of whether they use their 1x protect on Moon and what night they do it on.

I've got more quotes on Moon that I'll address in a second regarding the matrix and strategy, but I want to catch up before then. There's a decent chance they either know the set up or have it down to a 50/50 seeing as there must be a Mafia Blocker.
 
Stagg737 said:
I mean, the only times I've been caught as a wolf was in StarDew 2 and Noobs in Space where I went down while converting Coffee? after she was revealed as IC. So I'm not really wrong....
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And Nav's weird game where I was a wolf converted to village, but that game was all kinds of weird and the only reason I got caught is because Coffee? has some ridiculous god-read ability on me when she played.
 
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Stagg737 said:
@moonstermash , are you a mathematically/logic puzzle inclined individual?
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I am - I love Sudoku, Kakuro, etc. But when it comes to game mech, it doesn't help me out as much as I'd like, TBH. I feel like I know just enough to get into trouble. Why?
 
Stagg737 said:
PoE at the moment is Moon, Achro, Dubz, Samac (unordered)

Town core is genny/Santy for now. I also feel okay about Zenge for now.

Unsure/want more from Shinichi and PSV. I feel like there's good info here but just not sure how to judge it atm.
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Can you clarify on achro again? I can’t remember
 
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Clem J said:
We have 9 VT, 3 town PR, 3 mafia

This is on the assumption that a VT won't claim PR to save themselves, which with most people is a safe assumption

So a PR claim at EOD is about 50% to be a town PR or a mafia (this is also on the assumption that any mafia would fake claim to save themselves, which they usually should), which is a way above rand chance to hit mafia

You can get the math more granular but I personally cannot lol

Yes this does ignore thread context or whatever, it's not something you should blindly follow, yada yada
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The imo the odds of a claim

WildZoo said:
That's...not completely accurate is it? Like there's overlap between setups. They could determine after a town PR flip.

Meh I'll go back and look at moon claim timing but like...coming in and only talking about yeeting the PR claim is a little :eyebrow: for you and Clem (but probably not both)
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I'll happily switch to you if I feel like Moon's claim gains legitimacy. I don't think I read you well but you're setting off all kinds of flags for me this game.

WildZoo said:
In my current universe you're probably village and w!Stagg is following along with your thoughts for a free shot at a village PR
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This is shady shade-throwing shadeballz af. You know I get lost in mechanics and like solving puzzle games and I wouldn't be trying to fish for this info.

samac said:
I was looking at that but I think there is not a way for one town to know we’re not in a set up with a doctor. Each individual roll can be a set up with a doctor.
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This is true. Side note, why are we assuming actions are soft? Certainly could be but if it's not stated in the rules I won't assume it.

samac said:
Yeah, this game isn’t solvable just by the grid. Too much overlap.
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Not yet, but there are definitely solid inferences that can be made. Ie, we know 2/3 mafia roles (blocker and goon). We know that if there's a mafia watcher then they know 100% there's a doctor, so we're less likely playing column A or row 2. We also know that at this point mafia can't know 100% that there isn't a town doctor unless actions are loud and they have info from someone acting on them. We also know the only setups without a town doctor are Columns B and C or rows 3 or 4. So more than likely there is an odd night doctor.

If Moon is a wolf going down and pack wants to eliminate a PR, doctor is their best bet at a counter claim. If no one counterclaims, then Moon can potentially coast. If someone does, they lose a wolf (possibly goon) but also take down a PR. If wolves are trying to survive with an untaken PR, then doctor claim probably wasn't a great choice. Other way to look at it though is that town doc flip also keeps the wolf PRs more hidden, as it has the most combinations for game set up. So in wolfy Moon world I think it just depends on how worried they would be that she would be going down. If they really thought she was screwed then claiming doc gives the best chance of finding a PR while also hiding their roles. However, it's also the PR claim at greatest risk of getting counterclaimed as there's a 60% chance of town doctor being present in the game while every other role only has a 40% chance independently.
 
WildZoo said:
You saying that you let yourself get caught in StardeWW 2 is grotesque bruh
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Eh, I admit I was almost certainly going down either way. But me and JJJ chose when to stop fighting my death and embrace it to send him to end game. So little bit of both there. Same goes for Noobs in Space really. I've embraced that as a wolf my odds of actually making it to end game when vets are playing are basically zero now.
 
Stagg737 said:
This is shady shade-throwing shadeballz af. You know I get lost in mechanics and like solving puzzle games and I wouldn't be trying to fish for this info.
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I'm not entirely sure I remembered that about you, but okay :laugh:

I wasn't being shady, I think you're a wolf, I was explaining to Clem what I thought your motive would be under those circumstances. It's not really shade when I'm being direct about my read on you?
 
Stagg737 said:
I'll happily switch to you if I feel like Moon's claim gains legitimacy. I don't think I read you well but you're setting off all kinds of flags for me this game.
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Jennifer Lawrence Reaction GIF
 
Stagg737 said:
Eh, I admit I was almost certainly going down either way. But me and JJJ chose when to stop fighting my death and embrace it to send him to end game. So little bit of both there. Same goes for Noobs in Space really. I've embraced that as a wolf my odds of actually making it to end game when vets are playing are basically zero now.
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"I was almost certainly going down either way"
"My odds of actually making it to end game when vets are playing are basically zero now."

"I could only be caught on purpose lol"

Make it make sense
 
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