I'm a little confused. In your hypothetical clinic:
60% "commerical"
35% Medicare
5% Medicaid
After reform:
60% "commerical"
35% Medicare
5% Medicaid at Medicare rates
How is this clinic going to lose money, again?
The clinic won't lose money as long as it maintains that payer mix. The problem is that by maintaining that payer mix, the practice would delay care for a greater number of people. Think about it in terms of numbers...
For our hypothetical clinic...
Patient Capacity: 100 apts/wk
60/35/5 breakdown...
60 commercial/wk
35 MCR/wk
5 MCD/wk
Avg pt seen 1x/mo for 5 mos, so at any given time, we are seeing 400 pts (in high demand as is the case in this part of the country for virtually all specialties) and turnover is 400 pts seen/mo * 1 pt/5 mos = 80 new pts (per mo) = 20 new pts/wk
or... per wk:
12 commercial/wk
7 MCR/wk
1 MCD/wk
Let's also assume that our mix of pts in need is like the
national stats (which probably underestimates the number of MCR pts actually needing care in comparison with the number of commercial pts for most specialties, thus resulting in a pretty conservative estimate):
67% Commercial
17% MCR
16% MCD
At first glance, this actually looks pretty good for MCR quite good actually (not great for MCD but hey, it's free right?). Our payer mix policy actually favors MCR pts over Commercial. If we went with what our accountants had figured, we might figure that if we have a waiting list of 50 patients -- how long does it take to get thru that if you are in each category?
Well, for 50 patients:
33 Commercial --> 3 weeks
8 MCR --> 2 1/2 weeks
8 MCD --> 2 months
Now, let's add all of our new MCD patients on and see how long everyone ends up waiting now....
56% Commercial
14% MCR
30% MCD
Now our wait list has also grown by 20% due to the new pts who want care (although in reality, it will likely be far more than this since those 20% are going to come flooding it with much higher volume than the population that was already taking care of itself).
So the WL is now 60 pts:
34 Commercial --> 3 wks
8 MCR --> 1 wk
18 MCD --> 4 1/2 mos
This basically puts us in the same place we already were of having the pts who could not pay still not getting the care they need. Chances are pretty good the pts waiting over a month to be seen are simply going to end up in the ED instead for "walk-in primary care."