Unfortunately, yes. You have a very attractive application, but are still a non-URM from TX with a slightly below average MCAT for successful White applicants. You are likely to receive several As from TX schools, and will be unlikely to give up IS TX tuition when you will not be eligible for IS tuition anywhere your parents might be going.
Schools know this. The stats are dismal. 5884 people applied from TX in the past reported cycle (the class that entered last fall). 1607 matriculated IS, 323 OOS, and 3954 not at all. As I said before, you look like an attractive applicant, so I think it is far more likely than not that you will be successful, although there are no guarantees until you receive your first A. That said, the odds also overwhelmingly point to you staying in TX, either by choice or otherwise (5 to 1).