NBME score drop during dedicated??

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narla_hotep

Full Member
7+ Year Member
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So, I'm in the middle of my dedicated Step 1 study block, exactly 4 weeks away from my test. I took NBME 15 last week and was happy to get a 430 (~213 predicted). After my second week of reading first aid, doing Uworld, watching pathoma/BnB videos, I take NBME 16 and get.... a 410. So 209 predicted. Granted, I feel like I was a little distracted while taking it today and maybe my heart wasn't in it, but I'm still really alarmed to see a drop in score after what I thought was a strong week of studying.

Is NBME 16 supposed to be really hard or something, or is this a bad sign about my studying?? Like is this a wake up call that I need to move my test back or change something about my study habits? I'm planning to step up my uworld this week but otherwise idk what to do...
 
I took UWSA19 2 weeks out and got a 248, but I've heard that one overpredicts. I took NBME 19 (supposed to be decently predictive) one week out and got a 230, which was close to what I did on the real thing.